Measuring individual differences in generic beliefs in conspiracy theories across cultures: the Conspiracy Mentality Questionnaire (CMQ)

Conspiracy theories are ubiquitous when it comes to explaining political events and societal phenomena. Individuals differ not only in the degree to which they believe in specific conspiracy theories, but also in their general susceptibility to explanations based on such theories, that is, their conspiracy mentality. We present the Conspiracy Mentality Questionnaire (CMQ), an instrument designed to efficiently assess differences in the generic tendency to engage in conspiracist ideation within and across cultures. The CMQ is available in English, German, and Turkish. In four studies, we examined the CMQ’s factorial structure, reliability, measurement equivalence across cultures, and its convergent, discriminant, and predictive validity. Analyses based on a cross-cultural sample (Study 1a; N = 7,766) supported the conceptualization of conspiracy mentality as a one-dimensional construct across the three language versions of the CMQ that is stable across time (Study 1b; N = 141). Multi-group confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated cross-cultural measurement equivalence of the CMQ items. The instrument could therefore be used to examine differences in conspiracy mentality between European, North American, and Middle Eastern cultures. In Studies 2–4 (total N = 476), we report (re-)analyses of three datasets demonstrating the validity of the CMQ in student and working population samples in the UK and Germany. First, attesting to its convergent validity, the CMQ was highly correlated with another measure of generic conspiracy belief. Second, the CMQ showed patterns of meaningful associations with personality measures (e.g., Big Five dimensions, schizotypy), other generalized political attitudes (e.g., social dominance orientation and right-wing authoritarianism), and further individual differences (e.g., paranormal belief, lack of socio-political control). Finally, the CMQ predicted beliefs in specific conspiracy theories over and above other individual difference measures

Therapeutic success in relapse prevention in alcohol use disorder : the role of treatment motivation and drinking-related treatment goals

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Addictive Diseases on 5. Nov 2020, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/10550887.2020.1820810Background Changing addictive behavior is a complex process with high demands on motivation. The Transtheoretical Model of Behavior Change provides a theoretical framework for explaining and predicting behavioral change, although its predictive value for addiction is somewhat inconsistent. Objective The aim of the present study is to extend the Transtheoretical Model of Behavior Change by investigating not only treatment motivation but also the predictive value of the type of drinking-related treatment goal. Additional predictors, such as substance-related and sociodemographic variables, are also included in analyses seeking to predict return to drinking during relapse prevention treatment for alcohol use disorder. Methods In this observational study, 99 inpatients from a treatment center for alcohol use disorder were recruited. Treatment motivation was assessed in accordance with the Transtheoretical Model of Behavior Change, drinking-related treatment goal through a self-report questionnaire, and substance-related and sociodemographic variables via the clinic information system. Associations between the potential predictors and covariates were explored using stepwise logistic regression. Results During treatment, 42.6% of participants had at least one relapse. Scoring higher on the action dimension at admission (OR = 0.81, p = .04) and being employed (OR = 0.37, p = .02) were significant predictors of abstinence during treatment. Conclusions This study confirms that treatment motivation contributes to the prediction of treatment outcome, even when controlling for other variables. In future research, the underlying mechanisms of treatment motivation should be further explored

Dynamics of information processing in risky choices : Making thorough use of behavioral data

This work examines the dynamics of information use and integration of decisions under risk, in particular repeated monetary gambles, thereby advocating the value of a joint analysis of choice proportions and response times. Based on findings in perceptual decision making research that choice behavior is subject to systematic changes with response time (RT), and studies from judgment and decision making research suggesting that people apply different decision strategies across trials, this work aimed to investigate the extent to which changes in the application of decision strategies are systematically related to changes in RT. Furthermore, this work examined how different types of feedback (Research Paper I), the manipulation of the information format (Research Paper II), and the presentation order of choice options (Research Paper III) affect the pattern of information integration and risky choice behavior in general. Finally, as part of the latter research paper, both the applicability and the limits of a simple drift diffusion model to the analysis of risky choices are tested. The present thesis establishes that risky choice behavior is not always stable over time, but subject to systematic variations with RT, supporting the idea that people use different strategies across trials. In this regard, simpler decision rules and dominant choice preferences (e.g., for high probabilities lotteries or sure outcomes) are particularly pronounced for fast responses. Slower responses are characterized by either more integrative decision strategies (e.g., when conflicting information is presented), or by maintaining the initial strategy/heuristic (e.g., if the information format is difficult to process). In addition, a simple diffusion model can successfully account for a large portion of risky choice behavior, and parameter analyses provide useful insights in the underlying cognitive processes (e.g., a response bias for sure outcomes over lotteries in the gain domain). However, a limit is reached for cases in which decision strategies change with RT, for which more complex models are required. The results are reviewed in the context (and limits) of established theoretical frameworks, and an alternative explanation of the underlying mechanism is discussed.publishe

Are choices based on conditional or conjunctive probabilities in a sequential risk-taking task?

In this study, we examined participants' choice behavior in a sequential risk‐taking task. We were especially interested in the extent to which participants focus on the immediate next choice or consider the entire choice sequence. To do so, we inspected whether decisions were either based on conditional probabilities (e.g., being successful on the immediate next trial) or on conjunctive probabilities (of being successful several times in a row). The results of five experiments with a simplified nine‐card Columbia Card Task and a CPT‐model analysis show that participants' choice behavior can be described best by a mixture of the two probability types. Specifically, for their first choice, the participants relied on conditional probabilities, whereas subsequent choices were based on conjunctive probabilities. This strategy occurred across different start conditions in which more or less cards were already presented face up. Consequently, the proportion of risky choices was substantially higher when participants started from a state with some cards facing up, compared with when they arrived at that state starting from the very beginning. The results, alternative accounts, and implications are discussed.publishe

Effects of different feedback types on information integration in repeated monetary gambles

Most models of risky decision making assume that all relevant information is taken into account (e.g., von Neumann and Morgenstern, 1944; Kahneman and Tversky, 1979). However, there are also some models supposing that only part of the information is considered (e.g., Brandstätter et al., 2006; Gigerenzer and Gaissmaier, 2011). To further investigate the amount of information that is usually used for decision making, and how the use depends on feedback, we conducted a series of three experiments in which participants choose between two lotteries and where no feedback, outcome feedback, and error feedback was provided, respectively. The results show that without feedback participants mostly chose the lottery with the higher winning probability, and largely ignored the potential gains. The same results occurred when the outcome of each decision was fed back. Only after presenting error feedback (i.e., signaling whether a choice was optimal or not), participants considered probabilities as well as gains, resulting in more optimal choices. We propose that outcome feedback was ineffective, because of its probabilistic and ambiguous nature. Participants improve information integration only if provided with a consistent and deterministic signal such as error feedback

Graphs versus numbers: How information format affects risk aversion in gambling

In lottery gambling, the common phenomenon of risk aversion shows up a s preference of the option with the higher win probability, even if a riskier alternative offers a greater expected value . Because riskier choices would optimize profitability in such cases, the present study investigates the visual format, with which lotteries are conveyed, as potential instrument to modulate risk attitudes. Previous research has shown that enhanced atte ntion to graphical compared to numerical probabilities can increase risk aversion, but evidence for the reverse effect — r educed risk aversion through a graphical display of outcomes — is sparse. We conducted three experiments, in which participants repea tedly selected one of two lotteries. Probabilities and outcomes were either presented numerically or in a graphical format tha t consisted of pie charts (Experiment 1) or icon arrays (Experiment 2 and 3). Further, expected values were either higher in th e safer or in the riskier lottery, or they did not differ between the options. Despite a marked risk aversion in all experiments, ou r results show that presenting outcomes as graphs can reduce — albeit not eliminate — risk aversion (Experiment 3). Yet, no t all formats prove suitable, and non-intuitive outcome graphs can even enhance risk aversion (Experiment 1). Jo int analyses of choice proportions and response times (RTs) further uncovered that risk aversion leads to safe choices par ticularly in fast decisions. This pattern is expressed under graphical probabilities, whereas graphical outcomes can weaken the r apid dominance of risk aversion and the variability over RTs (Experiment 1 and 2). Together, our findings demonstrate the rele vance of information format for risky decisions. Keywords: lottery gambling; information format; risk aversion; condition al choice functions (CCFs)

Therapieerfolg bei der Rückfallprävention bei Alkoholabhängigkeit : die Rolle der Behandlungsmotivation und der trinkbezogenen Behandlungsziele

Einleitung: Die Änderung von Suchtverhalten ist ein komplexer Prozess mit hohen Anforderungen an die Motivation. Das Transtheoretische Modell der Verhaltensänderung bietet einen theoretischen Rahmen für die Erklärung und Vorhersage von Verhaltensänderungen, obwohl sein Vorhersagewert für Sucht etwas uneinheitlich ist. Zielsetzung: Ziel der vorliegenden Studie ist es, das Transtheoretische Modell der Verhaltensänderung zu erweitern, indem nicht nur die Behandlungsmotivation, sondern auch der Vorhersagewert der Art des trinkbezogenen Behandlungsziels untersucht wird. Zusätzliche Prädiktoren, wie substanzbezogene und soziodemografische Variablen, werden ebenfalls in die Analysen zur Vorhersage der Rückkehr zum Alkoholkonsum während der Rückfallpräventionsbehandlung bei Alkoholkonsumstörung einbezogen. Methoden: In dieser Beobachtungsstudie wurden 99 stationäre Patienten aus einem Behandlungszentrum für Alkoholabhängigkeit rekrutiert. Die Behandlungsmotivation wurde anhand des Transtheoretischen Modells der Verhaltensänderung, die trinkbezogenen Behandlungsziele anhand eines Selbstauskunftsbogens und die substanzbezogenen und soziodemografischen Variablen anhand des Klinikinformationssystems bewertet. Die Zusammenhänge zwischen den potenziellen Prädiktoren und Kovariaten wurden mithilfe einer schrittweisen logistischen Regression untersucht. Resultate: Während der Behandlung hatten 42,6 % der Teilnehmer mindestens einen Rückfall. Eine höhere Bewertung der Handlungsdimension bei der Aufnahme (OR = 0,81, p = .04) und eine Berufstätigkeit (OR = 0,37, p = .02) waren signifikante Prädiktoren für die Abstinenz während der Behandlung. Schlussfolgerungen: Diese Studie bestätigt, dass die Behandlungsmotivation zur Vorhersage des Behandlungsergebnisses beiträgt, selbst wenn andere Variablen kontrolliert werden. In künftigen Forschungsarbeiten sollten die der Behandlungsmotivation zugrunde liegenden Mechanismen weiter erforscht werden