A new scoring system in Cystic Fibrosis: statistical tools for database analysis – a preliminary report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cystic fibrosis is the most common fatal genetic disorder in the Caucasian population. Scoring systems for assessment of Cystic fibrosis disease severity have been used for almost 50 years, without being adapted to the milder phenotype of the disease in the 21^stcentury. The aim of this current project is to develop a new scoring system using a database and employing various statistical tools. This study protocol reports the development of the statistical tools in order to create such a scoring system.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The evaluation is based on the Cystic Fibrosis database from the cohort at the Royal Children's Hospital in Melbourne. Initially, unsupervised clustering of the all data records was performed using a range of clustering algorithms. In particular incremental clustering algorithms were used. The clusters obtained were characterised using rules from decision trees and the results examined by clinicians. In order to obtain a clearer definition of classes expert opinion of each individual's clinical severity was sought. After data preparation including expert-opinion of an individual's clinical severity on a 3 point-scale (mild, moderate and severe disease), two multivariate techniques were used throughout the analysis to establish a method that would have a better success in feature selection and model derivation: 'Canonical Analysis of Principal Coordinates' and 'Linear Discriminant Analysis'. A 3-step procedure was performed with (1) selection of features, (2) extracting 5 severity classes out of a 3 severity class as defined per expert-opinion and (3) establishment of calibration datasets.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>(1) Feature selection: CAP has a more effective "modelling" focus than DA.</p> <p>(2) Extraction of 5 severity classes: after variables were identified as important in discriminating contiguous CF severity groups on the 3-point scale as mild/moderate and moderate/severe, Discriminant Function (DF) was used to determine the new groups mild, intermediate moderate, moderate, intermediate severe and severe disease. (3) Generated confusion tables showed a misclassification rate of 19.1% for males and 16.5% for females, with a majority of misallocations into adjacent severity classes particularly for males.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our preliminary data show that using CAP for detection of selection features and Linear DA to derive the actual model in a CF database might be helpful in developing a scoring system. However, there are several limitations, particularly more data entry points are needed to finalize a score and the statistical tools have further to be refined and validated, with re-running the statistical methods in the larger dataset.</p

Pressure balance in the multiphase ISM of cosmologically simulated disc galaxies

Pressure balance plays a central role in models of the interstellar medium (ISM), but whether and how pressure balance is realized in a realistic multiphase ISM is not yet well understood. We address this question by using a set of FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations of Milky Way-mass disc galaxies, in which a multiphase ISM is self-consistently shaped by gravity, cooling, and stellar feedback. We analyse how gravity determines the vertical pressure profile as well as how the total ISM pressure is partitioned between different phases and components (thermal, dispersion/turbulence, and bulk flows). We show that, on average and consistent with previous more idealized simulations, the total ISM pressure balances the weight of the overlying gas. Deviations from vertical pressure balance increase with increasing galactocentric radius and with decreasing averaging scale. The different phases are in rough total pressure equilibrium with one another, but with large deviations from thermal pressure equilibrium owing to kinetic support in the cold and warm phases, which dominate the total pressure near the mid-plane. Bulk flows (e.g. inflows and fountains) are important at a few disc scale heights, while thermal pressure from hot gas dominates at larger heights. Overall, the total mid-plane pressure is well-predicted by the weight of the disc gas and we show that it also scales linearly with the star formation rate surface density (ςSFR). These results support the notion that the Kennicutt-Schmidt relation arises because ςSFR and the gas surface density (ςg) are connected via the ISM mid-plane pressure

The Origins of the Circumgalactic Medium in the FIRE Simulations

We use a particle tracking analysis to study the origins of the circumgalactic medium (CGM), separating it into (1) accretion from the intergalactic medium (IGM), (2) wind from the central galaxy, and (3) gas ejected from other galaxies. Our sample consists of 21 FIRE-2 simulations, spanning the halo mass range log(Mh/Msun) ~ 10-12 , and we focus on z=0.25 and z=2. Owing to strong stellar feedback, only ~L* halos retain a baryon mass >~50% of their cosmic budget. Metals are more efficiently retained by halos, with a retention fraction >~50%. Across all masses and redshifts analyzed >~60% of the CGM mass originates as IGM accretion (some of which is associated with infalling halos). Overall, the second most important contribution is wind from the central galaxy, though gas ejected or stripped from satellites can contribute a comparable mass in ~L* halos. Gas can persist in the CGM for billions of years, resulting in well-mixed halo gas. Sight lines through the CGM are therefore likely to intersect gas of multiple origins. For low-redshift ~L* halos, cool gas (T<10^4.7 K) is distributed on average preferentially along the galaxy plane, however with strong halo-to-halo variability. The metallicity of IGM accretion is systematically lower than the metallicity of winds (typically by >~1 dex), although CGM and IGM metallicities depend significantly on the treatment of subgrid metal diffusion. Our results highlight the multiple physical mechanisms that contribute to the CGM and will inform observational efforts to develop a cohesive picture.Comment: 23 pages, 22 figures. Minor revisions from previous version. Online interactive visualizations available at zhafen.github.io/CGM-origins and zhafen.github.io/CGM-origins-pathline

Data-driven approach for creating synthetic electronic medical records

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>New algorithms for disease outbreak detection are being developed to take advantage of full electronic medical records (EMRs) that contain a wealth of patient information. However, due to privacy concerns, even anonymized EMRs cannot be shared among researchers, resulting in great difficulty in comparing the effectiveness of these algorithms. To bridge the gap between novel bio-surveillance algorithms operating on full EMRs and the lack of non-identifiable EMR data, a method for generating complete and synthetic EMRs was developed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This paper describes a novel methodology for generating complete synthetic EMRs both for an outbreak illness of interest (tularemia) and for background records. The method developed has three major steps: 1) synthetic patient identity and basic information generation; 2) identification of care patterns that the synthetic patients would receive based on the information present in real EMR data for similar health problems; 3) adaptation of these care patterns to the synthetic patient population.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We generated EMRs, including visit records, clinical activity, laboratory orders/results and radiology orders/results for 203 synthetic tularemia outbreak patients. Validation of the records by a medical expert revealed problems in 19% of the records; these were subsequently corrected. We also generated background EMRs for over 3000 patients in the 4-11 yr age group. Validation of those records by a medical expert revealed problems in fewer than 3% of these background patient EMRs and the errors were subsequently rectified.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A data-driven method was developed for generating fully synthetic EMRs. The method is general and can be applied to any data set that has similar data elements (such as laboratory and radiology orders and results, clinical activity, prescription orders). The pilot synthetic outbreak records were for tularemia but our approach may be adapted to other infectious diseases. The pilot synthetic background records were in the 4-11 year old age group. The adaptations that must be made to the algorithms to produce synthetic background EMRs for other age groups are indicated.</p

Search for a Technicolor omega_T Particle in Events with a Photon and a b-quark Jet at CDF

If the Technicolor omega_T particle exists, a likely decay mode is omega_T -> gamma pi_T, followed by pi_T -> bb-bar, yielding the signature gamma bb-bar. We have searched 85 pb^-1 of data collected by the CDF experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron for events with a photon and two jets, where one of the jets must contain a secondary vertex implying the presence of a b quark. We find no excess of events above standard model expectations. We express the result of an exclusion region in the M_omega_T - M_pi_T mass plane.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures. Available from the CDF server (PS with figs): http://www-cdf.fnal.gov/physics/pub98/cdf4674_omega_t_prl_4.ps FERMILAB-PUB-98/321-

Observation of Hadronic W Decays in t-tbar Events with the Collider Detector at Fermilab

We observe hadronic W decays in t-tbar -> W (-> l nu) + >= 4 jet events using a 109 pb-1 data sample of p-pbar collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV collected with the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF). A peak in the dijet invariant mass distribution is obtained that is consistent with W decay and inconsistent with the background prediction by 3.3 standard deviations. From this peak we measure the W mass to be 77.2 +- 4.6 (stat+syst) GeV/c^2. This result demonstrates the presence of two W bosons in t-tbar candidates in the W (-> l nu) + >= 4 jet channel.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures, submitted to PR

Measurement of the lepton charge asymmetry in W-boson decays produced in p-pbar collisions

We describe a measurement of the charge asymmetry of leptons from W boson decays in the rapidity range 0 enu, munu events from 110+/-7 pb^{-1}of data collected by the CDF detector during 1992-95. The asymmetry data constrain the ratio of d and u quark momentum distributions in the proton over the x range of 0.006 to 0.34 at Q2 \approx M_W^2. The asymmetry predictions that use parton distribution functions obtained from previously published CDF data in the central rapidity region (0.0<|y_l|<1.1) do not agree with the new data in the large rapidity region (|y_l|>1.1).Comment: 13 pages, 3 tables, 1 figur

Search for Chargino-Neutralino Associated Production at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider

We have searched in $p \bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 1.8 TeV for events with three charged leptons and missing transverse energy. In the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model, we expect trilepton events from chargino-neutralino (\chione \chitwo) pair production, with subsequent decay into leptons. We observe no candidate $e^+e^-e^\pm$, $e^+e^-\mu^\pm$, $e^\pm\mu^+\mu^-$ or $\mu^+\mu^-\mu^\pm$ events in 106 pb$^{-1}$ integrated luminosity. We present limits on the sum of the branching ratios times cross section for the four channels: \sigma_{\chione\chitwo}\cdot BR(\chione\chitwo\to 3\ell+X) 81.5 \mgev\sp and M_\chitwo > 82.2 \mgev\sp for $\tan\beta=2$, $\mu =-600$~\mgev\sp and M_\squark= M_\gluino.Comment: 9 pages and 3 figure