THE ROLE OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN MANAGING RISK

Risk and Uncertainty,

Setting health sector priorities: a brief overview of Ethiopia’s experience

Abstract As a country with significant resource constraints, a fair and efficient health priority setting should be at the cornerstone of Ethiopia’s commitment to attain universal health coverage by 2035. This paper draws on the current national strategies including the national essential health service package to explore the criteria and processes used to set the existing national health sector priorities. Additionally, it reviews Ethiopia’s experience in comparison with the multi-criteria decision analysis proposed by Baltussen et al. Finally, the paper highlights the importance of strengthening country-led efforts and investing in human capital to shape priority setting in a developing country context

CONSPIRACY BELIEFS ABOUT HIV/AIDS AMONG HIV-POSITIVE AFRICAN-AMERICAN PATIENTS IN RURAL ALABAMA1,2

This is apparently the first survey examining endorsement of HIV/ AIDS conspiracy beliefs and their relations to educational attainment among 205 HIV-positive African-American patients receiving care at an AIDS Outreach Organization in Alabama. 31% somewhat or strongly believed that, "AIDS is a form o genocide against African Americans," 29% strongly agreed that "AIDS was created by the government to control the black population," 56.1% agreed that the government is withholding a cure for AIDS, and 69.8% agreed that the government is withholding information about the disease from the public. 52% agreed that "HIV is a manmade virus," and 43.1% that "AIDS was produced in the governments laboratory." Respondents with high school or college education were less likely to endorse conspiracy liefs. Being open and sensitive to questions about conspiracy beliefs plus understanding the historical roots and social context from which such questions arise in African-American communities is needed to counter such beliefs

Trade-off between forest conservation and agricultural expansion in Gura-ferda district, Southwest Ethiopia

Agricultural expansion is one of the main drivers of deforestation in Ethiopia. This study was therefore carried out to examine the trade-off between forest and agricultural land uses in Guraferda district, southwest Ethiopia. Data to estimate economic values of land use were derived from the household surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. The household surveys were carried out in four purposively selected kebeles. Within the selected Kebeles, a total of 186 sample households were selected randomly. In addition, this study used Remote Sensing (RS) to detect and quantify LULC changes that occurred in the district throughout a thirty-year study period. The study employed by Excel 2013 for solving a cost –benefit analysis and ERDAS Imagine 9.1 for image processing. The finding revealed that an expansion of agriculture/settlement and shrinkage of forest and shrub land over the last thirty-year. The forest and shrub land use decreased by 0.43 and 2.42% ha year-1, respectively, whereas agriculture/settlement and grassland increased by 9.1 and 0.64% ha year-1, respectively over the same period. The deforestation rate is estimated at 425 ha year-1 in the study area. Analysis of trade-off provides estimated forgone earnings of about ETB 79,138 ETB (1665.3 USD ha-1) and ETB 258,298.10 (5,435.5 USD ha-1) from forest conservation and crop production, respectively assuming a 20-year planning horizon and a 10% discount rate. The 425 ha of annual deforestation entails a loss of ETB 33,633,650 (707,779 USD year-1) from forest conservation and a gain of 109,776,692.5 ETB (2,310,115.5 USD) agricultural activity. Int. J. Agril. Res. Innov. Tech. 12(1): 45-55, June 202

Trade-off between forest conservation and agricultural expansion in Gura-ferda district, Southwest Ethiopia

Agricultural expansion is one of the main drivers of deforestation in Ethiopia. This study was therefore carried out to examine the trade-off between forest and agricultural land uses in Guraferda district, southwest Ethiopia. Data to estimate economic values of land use were derived from the household surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. The household surveys were carried out in four purposively selected kebeles. Within the selected Kebeles, a total of 186 sample households were selected randomly. In addition, this study used Remote Sensing (RS) to detect and quantify LULC changes that occurred in the district throughout a thirty-year study period. The study employed by Excel 2013 for solving a cost –benefit analysis and ERDAS Imagine 9.1 for image processing. The finding revealed that an expansion of agriculture/settlement and shrinkage of forest and shrub land over the last thirty-year. The forest and shrub land use decreased by 0.43 and 2.42% ha year-1, respectively, whereas agriculture/settlement and grassland increased by 9.1 and 0.64% ha year-1, respectively over the same period. The deforestation rate is estimated at 425 ha year-1 in the study area. Analysis of trade-off provides estimated forgone earnings of about ETB 79,138 ETB (1665.3 USD ha-1) and ETB 258,298.10 (5,435.5 USD ha-1) from forest conservation and crop production, respectively assuming a 20-year planning horizon and a 10% discount rate. The 425 ha of annual deforestation entails a loss of ETB 33,633,650 (707,779 USD year-1) from forest conservation and a gain of 109,776,692.5 ETB (2,310,115.5 USD) agricultural activity

THE ROLE OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN MANAGING RISK

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