Multi-decadal river flow variations in France

International audienceIn this article, multi-decadal variations in the French hydroclimate are investigated, with a specific focus on river flows. Based on long observed series, it is shown that river flows in France generally exhibit large multi-decadal variations in the instrumental period (defined in this study as the period from the late 19th century to the present), especially in spring. Differences of means between 21 yr periods of the 20th century as large as 40% are indeed found for many gauging stations. Multi-decadal spring river flow variations are associated with variations in spring precipitation and temperature. These multi-decadal variations in precipitation are themselves found to be driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation, more precisely by a multi-decadal oscillation in a sea level pressure dipole between western Europe and the eastern Atlantic. It is suggested that the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, the main mode of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic-Europe sector, controls those variations in large-scale circulation and is therefore the main ultimate driver of multi-decadal variations in spring river flows. Potential multi-decadal variations in river flows in other seasons, and in particular summer, are also noted. As they are not associated with significant surface climate anomalies (i.e. temperature, precipitation) in summer, other mechanisms are investigated based on hydrological simulations. The impact of climate variations in spring on summer soil moisture, and the impact of soil moisture in summer on the runoff-to-precipitation ratio, could potentially play a role in multi-decadal summer river flow variations. The large amplitude of the multi-decadal variations in French river flows suggests that internal variability may play a very important role in the evolution of river flows during the next decades, potentially temporarily limiting, reversing or seriously aggravating the long-term impacts of anthropogenic climate change

Modal Decomposition of Feedback Delay Networks

Feedback delay networks (FDNs) belong to a general class of recursive filters which are widely used in sound synthesis and physical modeling applications. We present a numerical technique to compute the modal decomposition of the FDN transfer function. The proposed pole finding algorithm is based on the Ehrlich-Aberth iteration for matrix polynomials and has improved computational performance of up to three orders of magnitude compared to a scalar polynomial root finder. We demonstrate how explicit knowledge of the FDN's modal behavior facilitates analysis and improvements for artificial reverberation. The statistical distribution of mode frequency and residue magnitudes demonstrate that relatively few modes contribute a large portion of impulse response energy

Eccentricities of Double Neutron Star Binaries

Recent pulsar surveys have increased the number of observed double neutron stars (DNS) in our galaxy enough so that observable trends in their properties are starting to emerge. In particular, it has been noted that the majority of DNS have eccentricities less than 0.3, which are surprisingly low for binaries that survive a supernova explosion that we believe imparts a significant kick to the neutron star. To investigate this trend, we generate many different theoretical distributions of DNS eccentricities using Monte Carlo population synthesis methods. We determine which eccentricity distributions are most consistent with the observed sample of DNS binaries. In agreement with Chaurasia & Bailes (2005), assuming all double neutron stars are equally as probable to be discovered as binary pulsars, we find that highly eccentric, coalescing DNS are less likely to be observed because of their accelerated orbital evolution due to gravitational wave emission and possible early mergers. Based on our results for coalescing DNS, we also find that models with vanishingly or moderately small kicks (sigma < about 50 km/s) are inconsistent with the current observed sample of such DNS. We discuss the implications of our conclusions for DNS merger rate estimates of interest to ground-based gravitational-wave interferometers. We find that, although orbital evolution due to gravitational radiation affects the eccentricity distribution of the observed sample, the associated upwards correction factor to merger rate estimates is rather small (typically 10-40%).Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, accepted by ApJ. Figures reduced and some content changed, references adde

A New Way to Detect Massive Black Holes in Galaxies: The Stellar Remnants of Tidal Disruption

We point out that the tidal disruption of a giant may leave a luminous (10^35-10^39 ergs/s), hot (10-100 eV) stellar core. The ``supersoft'' source detected by Chandra at the center of M31 may be such a core; whether or not it is, the observations have shown that such a core is detectable, even in the center of a galaxy. We therefore explore the range of expected observational signatures and how they may be used to (1) test the hypothesis that the M31 source is a remnant of tidal stripping and (2) discover evidence of black holes and disruption events in other galaxies.Comment: Four pages with 1 figure. Appeared in ApJL (2001, 551, L37

The Galactic Population of Low- and Intermediate-Mass X-ray Binaries

(abridged) We present the first study that combines binary population synthesis in the Galactic disk and detailed evolutionary calculations of low- and intermediate-mass X-ray binaries (L/IMXBs). We show that the formation probability of IMXBs with initial donor masses of 1.5--4 Msun is typically >~5 times higher than that of standard LMXBs, and suggest that the majority of the observed systems may have descended from IMXBs. Distributions at the current epoch of the orbital periods, donor masses, and mass accretion rates have been computed, as have orbital-period distributions of BMPs. Several significant discrepancies between the theoretical and observed distributions are discussed. The orbital-period distribution of observed BMPs strongly favors cases where the envelope of the neutron-star progenitor is more easily ejected during the common-envelope phase. However, this leads to a >~100-fold overproduction of the theoretical number of luminous X-ray sources relative to the total observed number of LMXBs. X-ray irradiation of the donor star may result in a dramatic reduction in the X-ray active lifetime of L/IMXBs, thus possibly resolving the overproduction problem, as well as the long-standing BMP/LMXB birthrate problem.Comment: 12 pages, emulateapj, submitted to Ap

A New Formation Channel for Double Neutron Stars Without Recycling: Implications for Gravitational Wave Detection

We report on a new evolutionary path leading to the formation of close double neutron stars (NS), with the unique characteristic that none of the two NS ever had the chance to be recycled by accretion. The existence of this channel stems from the evolution of helium-rich stars (cores of massive NS progenitors), which has been neglected in most previous studies of double compact object formation. We find that these non-recycled NS-NS binaries are formed from bare carbon-oxygen cores in tight orbits, with formation rates comparable to or maybe even higher than those of recycled NS-NS binaries. On the other hand, their detection probability as binary pulsars is greatly reduced (by about 1000) relative to recycled pulsars, because of their short lifetimes. We conclude that, in the context of gravitational-wave detection of NS-NS inspiral events, this new type of binaries calls for an increase of the rate estimates derived from the observed NS-NS with recycled pulsars, typically by factors of 1.5-3 or even higher.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters; 5 pages, 1 figure, 2 tables. Two new paragraphs and one formula adde

Evolution of Neutron-Star, Carbon-Oxygen White-Dwarf Binaries

At least one, but more likely two or more, eccentric neutron-star, carbon-oxygen white-dwarf binaries with an unrecycled pulsar have been observed. According to the standard scenario for evolving neutron stars which are recycled in common envelope evolution we expect to observe \gsim 50 such circular neutron star-carbon oxygen white dwarf binaries, since their formation rate is roughly equal to that of the eccentric binaries and the time over which they can be observed is two orders of magnitude longer, as we shall outline. We observe at most one or two such circular binaries and from that we conclude that the standard scenario must be revised. Introducing hypercritical accretion into common envelope evolution removes the discrepancy by converting the neutron star into a black hole which does not emit radio waves, and therefore would not be observed.Comment: 25 pages, 1 figure, accepted in Ap

Equipotential Surfaces and Lagrangian points in Non-synchronous, Eccentric Binary and Planetary Systems

We investigate the existence and properties of equipotential surfaces and Lagrangian points in non-synchronous, eccentric binary star and planetary systems under the assumption of quasi-static equilibrium. We adopt a binary potential that accounts for non-synchronous rotation and eccentric orbits, and calculate the positions of the Lagrangian points as functions of the mass ratio, the degree of asynchronism, the orbital eccentricity, and the position of the stars or planets in their relative orbit. We find that the geometry of the equipotential surfaces may facilitate non-conservative mass transfer in non-synchronous, eccentric binary star and planetary systems, especially if the component stars or planets are rotating super-synchronously at the periastron of their relative orbit. We also calculate the volume-equivalent radius of the Roche lobe as a function of the four parameters mentioned above. Contrary to common practice, we find that replacing the radius of a circular orbit in the fitting formula of Eggleton (1983) with the instantaneous distance between the components of eccentric binary or planetary systems does not always lead to a good approximation to the volume-equivalent radius of the Roche-lobe. We therefore provide generalized analytic fitting formulae for the volume-equivalent Roche lobe radius appropriate for non-synchronous, eccentric binary star and planetary systems. These formulae are accurate to better than 1% throughout the relevant 2-dimensional parameter space that covers a dynamic range of 16 and 6 orders of magnitude in the two dimensions.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, 2 Tables, Accepted by the Astrophysical Journa

Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite

Physically-based droughts can be defined as a water deficit in at least one component of the land surface hydrological cycle. The reliance of different activity domains (water supply, irrigation, hydropower, etc.) on specific components of this cycle requires drought monitoring to be based on indices related to meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. This paper describes a high-resolution retrospective analysis of such droughts in France over the last fifty years, based on the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM) hydrometeorological suite. The high-resolution 1958–2008 Safran atmospheric reanalysis was used to force the Isba land surface scheme and the hydrogeological model Modcou. Meteorological droughts are characterized with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at time scales varying from 1 to 24 months. Similar standardizing methods were applied to soil moisture and streamflow for identifying multiscale agricultural droughts – through the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI) – and multiscale hydrological droughts, through the Standardized Flow Index (SFI). Based on a common threshold level for all indices, drought event statistics over the 50-yr period – number of events, duration, severity and magnitude – have been derived locally in order to highlight regional differences at multiple time scales and at multiple levels of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow). Results show a substantial variety of temporal drought patterns over the country that are highly dependent on both the variable and time scale considered. Independent spatio-temporal drought events have then been identified and described by combining local characteristics with the evolution of area under drought. Summary statistics have finally been used to compare past severe drought events, from multi-year precipitation deficits (1989–1990) to short hot and dry periods (2003). Results show that the ranking of drought events depends highly on both the time scale and the variable considered. This multilevel and multiscale drought climatology will serve as a basis for assessing the impacts of climate change on droughts in France

A past discharges assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – Part 1: Description and validation of the assimilation system

International audienceTwo Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Systems (ESPSs) have been set up at M´et´eo-France. They are based on the French SIM distributed hydrometeorological model. A deterministic analysis run of SIM is used to initialize the two ESPSs. In order to obtain a better initial state, a past discharges assimilation system has been implemented into this analysis SIM run, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). Its role is to improve the model soil moisture by using streamflow observations in order to better simulate streamflow. The skills of the assimilation system were assessed for a 569-day period on six different configurations, including two different physics schemes of the model (the use of an exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity or not) and, for each one, three different ways of considering the model soil moisture in the BLUE state variables. Respect of the linearity hypothesis of the BLUE was verified by assessing of the impact of iterations of the BLUE. The configuration including the use of the exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity and the combination of the moisture of the two soil layers in the state variable showed a significant improvement of streamflow simulations. It led to a significantly better simulation than the reference one, and the lowest soil moisture corrections. These results were confirmed by the study of the impacts of the past discharge assimilation system on a set of 49 independent stations