Accuracy of the Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index for predicting short-term mortality among 1307 US academic medical centre inpatients and 427 224 US Medicare patients.

BACKGROUND: The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index predicts 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19 using age, sex and pre-existing comorbidity diagnoses. The VACO Index was initially developed and validated in a nationwide cohort of US veterans-we now assess its accuracy in an academic medical centre and a nationwide US Medicare cohort. METHODS: With measures and weights previously derived and validated in US national Veterans Health Administration (VA) inpatients and outpatients (n=13 323), we evaluated the accuracy of the VACO Index for estimating 30-day all-cause mortality using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots of predicted versus observed mortality in inpatients at a single US academic medical centre (n=1307) and in Medicare inpatients and outpatients aged 65+ (n=427 224). RESULTS: 30-day mortality varied by data source: VA 8.5%, academic medical centre 17.5%, Medicare 16.0%. The VACO Index demonstrated similar discrimination in VA (AUC=0.82) and academic medical centre inpatient population (AUC=0.80), and when restricted to patients aged 65+ in VA (AUC=0.69) and Medicare inpatient and outpatient data (AUC=0.67). The Index modestly overestimated risk in VA and Medicare data and underestimated risk in Yale New Haven Hospital data. CONCLUSIONS: The VACO Index estimates risk of short-term mortality across a wide variety of patients with COVID-19 using data available prior to or at the time of diagnosis. The VACO Index could help inform primary and booster vaccination prioritisation, and indicate who among outpatients testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 should receive greater clinical attention or scarce treatments

Accuracy of the Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index for predicting short-term mortality among 1,307 Yale New Haven Hospital inpatients and 427,224 Medicare patients

AbstractBackgroundThe Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index incorporates age, sex, and pre-existing comorbidity diagnoses readily available in the electronic health record (EHR) to predict 30-day all-cause mortality in both inpatients and outpatients infected with SARS-CoV-2. We examined the performance of the Index using data from Yale New Haven Hospital (YNHH) and national Medicare data overall, over time, and within important patient subgroups.Methods and findingsWith measures and weights previously derived and validated in a national Veterans Healthcare Administration (VA) sample, we evaluated the accuracy of the VACO Index for estimating inpatient (YNHH) and both inpatient and outpatient mortality (Medicare) using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and comparisons of predicted versus observed mortality by decile (calibration plots). The VACO Index demonstrated similar discrimination and calibration in both settings, over time, and among important patient subgroups including women, Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and Native Americans. In sensitivity analyses, we allowed component variables to be re-weighted in the validation datasets and found that weights were largely consistent with those determined in VA data. Supplementing the VACO Index with body mass index and race/ethnicity had no effect on discrimination.ConclusionAmong COVID-19 positive individuals, the VACO Index accurately estimates risk of short-term mortality among a wide variety of patients. While it modestly over-estimates risk in recent intervals, the Index consistently identifies those at greatest relative risk. The VACO Index could identify individuals who should continue practicing social distancing, help determine who should be prioritized for vaccination, and among outpatients who test positive for SARS-CoV-2, indicate who should receive greater clinical attention or monoclonal antibodies.</jats:sec

Usage Patterns of Web-Based Stroke Calculators in Clinical Decision Support: Retrospective Analysis

BackgroundClinical scores are frequently used in the diagnosis and management of stroke. While medical calculators are increasingly important support tools for clinical decisions, the uptake and use of common medical calculators for stroke remain poorly characterized. ObjectiveWe aimed to describe use patterns in frequently used stroke-related medical calculators for clinical decisions from a web-based support system. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective study of calculators from MDCalc, a web-based and mobile app–based medical calculator platform based in the United States. We analyzed metadata tags from MDCalc’s calculator use data to identify all calculators related to stroke. Using relative page views as a measure of calculator use, we determined the 5 most frequently used stroke-related calculators between January 2016 and December 2018. For all 5 calculators, we determined cumulative and quarterly use, mode of access (eg, app or web browser), and both US and international distributions of use. We compared cumulative use in the 2016-2018 period with use from January 2011 to December 2015. ResultsOver the study period, we identified 454 MDCalc calculators, of which 48 (10.6%) were related to stroke. Of these, the 5 most frequently used calculators were the CHA2DS2-VASc score for atrial fibrillation stroke risk calculator (5.5% of total and 32% of stroke-related page views), the Mean Arterial Pressure calculator (2.4% of total and 14.0% of stroke-related page views), the HAS-BLED score for major bleeding risk (1.9% of total and 11.4% of stroke-related page views), the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score calculator (1.7% of total and 10.1% of stroke-related page views), and the CHADS2 score for atrial fibrillation stroke risk calculator (1.4% of total and 8.1% of stroke-related page views). Web browser was the most common mode of access, accounting for 82.7%-91.2% of individual stroke calculator page views. Access originated most frequently from the most populated regions within the United States. Internationally, use originated mostly from English-language countries. The NIHSS score calculator demonstrated the greatest increase in page views (238.1% increase) between the first and last quarters of the study period. ConclusionsThe most frequently used stroke calculators were the CHA2DS2-VASc, Mean Arterial Pressure, HAS-BLED, NIHSS, and CHADS2. These were mainly accessed by web browser, from English-speaking countries, and from highly populated areas. Further studies should investigate barriers to stroke calculator adoption and the effect of calculator use on the application of best practices in cerebrovascular disease