Temporary shocks and unavoidable transitions to a high-unemployment regime

This paper develops a model with multiple steady states (low tax and unemployment rate versus high tax and unemployment rate) in which equilibrium selection is not conditioned on a sunspot variable. Instead, large enough shocks initiate unavoidable transitions from one regime to the other. The predictions of this paper are consistent with the persistent increase of European unemployment rates observed during the seventies. The explanation given is that even if the unemployment rate would decrease it can only do so gradually because of matching frictions which in turn implies that the tax burden remains high and job creation remains low making the return to a low unemployment rate impossible. The paper shows that in some cases transition to the low-unemployment regime is not possible when tax rates are adjusted each period to balance the budget even though this would be possible under an alternative policy with lower tax rates and (temporary) budget deficits. JEL Classification: D50, C62, E24, E62, J64Fiscal Policy, Matching Model, Multiple Equilibria, Tax burden, Unemployment Benefits

Responding to Gender-based Violence in Scotland: The Scope of the Gender Equality Duty to Drive Cultural and Practical Change

This piece of research has its roots in well-established policy debates in Scotland. Following the passage of the Criminal Justice (Scotland) Act 2003, which introduced a new statutory aggravation for crimes motivated by religious prejudice, the then Scottish Executive convened a working group to explore and make recommendations on whether there was a case for similar provision for other social groups. The report and recommendations of the Hate Crime Working Group, published in 2004, recognised that the debate to introduce gender aggravation was one of the most contested issues which it had looked at, but it did not believe that at that stage it could recommend introducing such a provision. These debates re-emerged with Patrick Harvie’s member’s bill which was to become the Offences (Aggravation by Prejudice) (Scotland) Act 2009. The Equality and Human Rights Commission, along with many organisations in the women’s sector in Scotland, stated in its evidence on the bill that it did not believe that a statutory gender aggravation would be an effective additional criminal justice response to identifying and tackling crime motivated by gender prejudice. This of course begs the question about what is required to better address these types of crime. This piece of research, undertaken for the EHRC by the Scottish Centre for Crime and Justice Research, aims to be a useful contribution to this debate. It explores some of the arguments for and against a gender aggravation in Scots criminal law before considering the evidence thus far of the impact the Gender Equality Duty (GED) has had on Scotland’s criminal justice system, and makes a number of useful recommendations for the future. The EHRC subscribes to a gendered model of violence against women, which sees it as both a cause and consequence of wider gender inequality. We hope this report can help inform ongoing policy debate on criminal justice agencies’ response to violence against women, particularly in light of the new single equality duty which Scottish Ministers will in due course place on Scottish public authorities under powers conferred on them by the Equality Act 2010. We believe that the appropriate regulatory framework for public bodies working in this area is one of the prerequisites for further improving on Scotland’s record of identifying and tackling gender-based crime

Developing the dairy business in New Reality

Verslag van een studiedag voor melkveehouders, waarin wordt uitgelegd hoe ze goed op de toekomst kunnen anticipere

The political economy of central bank independence (Second, revised version)

Central Banks;Independence;Political Economy

Symbiotic approaches to work and technology

Production Planning;production

Cyclical Behavior of Debt and Equity Using a Panel of Canadian Firms

We document the cyclical behavior of debt, equity, and retained earnings for different firm categories using firm-level Canadian data. There is evidence of both procyclical equity and debt issuance for all firm categories but the timing differs. In particular, there is strong evidence that equity issuance increases in anticipation of an expansion. During this phase, some substitution between debt and equity takes place. After the expansion has reached its peak, equity issuance starts to decrease and during this phase there is strong evidence of procyclical debt issuance and some substitution out of equity seems to take place. Retained earnings is procyclical except for small firms.Business fluctuations and cycles

The Comovements between Real Activity and Prices in the G7

In this paper, we study the short-run and long-run comovement between prices and real activity in the G7 countries during the postwar period using VAR forecast errors and frequency domain filters. We find that there are several patterns of the correlation coefficients that are the same in all countries. In particular, the correlation at the 'long-run' horizon is virtually always negative and the correlation at the 'short-run' horizon is typically substantially higher. Although there is evidence of positive 'short-run' correlations for some countries it is not very robust to the choice of the price and output variables. In addition, we propose a more efficient method to calculate the covariances of VAR forecast errors and - in contrast to claims made in the literature - we show that band-pass filters isolate the desired set of frequencies not only when the series are stationary but also when they are first or second-order integrated processes.

The Role of Debt and Equity Finance over the Business Cycle

The authors show that debt and equity issuance are procyclical for most listed U.S. firms. The procyclicality of equity issuance decreases monotonically with firm size. At the aggregate level, however, the authors' results are not conclusive: issuance is countercyclical for very large firms that, although few in number, have a large effect on the aggregate because of their enormous size. If firms use the standard one-period contract, then the shadow price of external funds is procyclical and the cyclicality decreases with firm size. This property generates equity to be procyclical and--as in the data--the procyclicality decreases with firm size. Other factors that cause equity to be procyclical in the model are a countercyclical price of risk and a countercyclical cost of equity issuance. The model (i) generates a countercyclical default rate, (ii) magnifies shocks, and (iii) generates a stronger cyclical response for small firms, whereas the model without equity does the exact opposite.Financial stability; Business fluctuations and cycles

In-plane Theory of Non-Sequential Triple Ionization

We describe first-principles in-plane calculations of non-sequential triple ionization (NSTI) of atoms in a linearly polarized intense laser pulse. In a fully classically correlated description, all three electrons respond dynamically to the nuclear attraction, the pairwise e-e repulsions and the laser force throughout the duration of a 780nm laser pulse. Nonsequential ejection is shown to occur in a multi-electron, possibly multi-cycle and multi-dimensional, rescattering sequence that is coordinated by a number of sharp transverse recollimation impacts.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure