The spectrum of the B[e] star BAL224

We present optical spectroscopy of the emission line star BAL 224 (V=17.3, B-V=0.46). This star also named KWBBE 485, [MA93]906 is located at the periphery of the young SMC cluster NGC 330; it is known as a photometric variable with a possible period around 1 day (Balona 1992). Furthermore it was reported as the optical counterpart of the prominent mid-infrared source (MIR1) by Kucinskas et al. (2000), indicating the presence of a dust shell. The star was included in a sample of B-type stars observed using the ESO VLT-FLAMES facilities. The presence of emission lines such as Fe II,[Fe II], [S II] make this object like a B[e] star. The H$alpha$, H$gamma$ and H$delta$ lines show an asymmetrical double-peaked emission profile suggesting the presence of an accretion disk. Moreover the MACHO and OGLE light curves were analyzed; in addition to a long-term variability ($simeq$ 2300d), a short period very close to 1 day has been detected using different methods, confirming the variability previously reported by Balona (1992). Finally the nature of this object is reconsidered.Comment: 4 page

Lymph node metastasis of squamous cell carcinoma from an unknown primary in the upper and middle neck: impact of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess the potential of F-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT) imaging for detection of the primary tumor and its impact on treatment planning in patients presenting with cancer of unknown primary and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC)-positive cervical lymph nodes of the upper and middle neck. Methods: The study population consisted of 18 consecutive patients with biopsy-proven SCC involving lymph nodes of the upper and middle neck region and negative conventional diagnostic procedures with regard to the location of the primary. All patients underwent FDG-PET/CT according to a standard procedure in search for the primary, unidentified tumor. Results: In none of the patients FDG-PET/CT was able to indicate a primary tumor localization. Although FDGPET/CT did identify all sites of known lymph node involvement, neither additional sites of lymph node involvement nor sites of distant metastases were identified. Accordingly, FDG-PET/CT did not impact patient treatment planning. Conclusions: In this series, including patients suffering from lymph node metastases by an SCC of unknown primary in the upper and middle neck, FDG-PET/CT was unable to identify a primary tumor. In addition, FDGPET/CT did not modify the treatment planning in any of the patients studied

A note on performance measures for failure prediction models

This note briefly describes some important performance measures that can be used in failure prediction research. We do not only give an overview of the measures, but also clarify the connections between them and illustrate their use with numerical examples

Le risque bancaire en zone euro

Cet article analyse les cycles du crédit et de l'activité bancaire dans la zone euro. La politique monétaire accommodante de la BCE soulève des interrogations concernant les risques induits d’instabilité bancaire. Les résultats ne suggèrent ni boom de crédit ni contraction excessive sur la période récente. Si la dynamique du crédit est orientée plus favorablement par rapport à sa tendance en France et en Allemagne, le cycle ne témoigne pas d’une hausse excessive. L’Espagne constitue un cas particulier puisqu’elle se distingue par la faiblesse du crédit rapporté au PIB, alors que l’encours de crédit rapporté aux capitaux et réserves du système bancaire se situe à un niveau historiquement élevé, suggérant une prise de risque excessive

Où en est-on du cycle de crédit dans la zone euro ?

En décembre 2016, la BCE annonçait la poursuite de sa politique de Quantitative Easing (QE) jusqu’à décembre 2017. Alors que la reprise économique se confirme dans la zone euro et que l’inflation repart à la hausse, se pose la question des risques liés à cette politique. D’un côté, la poursuite d’une politique monétaire très expansionniste n’est-elle pas une source d’instabilité financière ? Inversement, une fin prématurée des mesures non conventionnelles pourrait remettre en cause la dynamique de croissance et la capacité de la BCE à atteindre ses objectifs. Nous étudions ici le dilemme auquel pourrait faire face la BCE au travers d’une analyse des cycles du crédit et de l’activité bancaire dans la zone euro. [Premier paragraphe]In December 2016, the European Central Bank announced the continuation of its Quantitative Easing (QE) policy until December 2017. The continuing economic recovery in the euro zone and the renewal of inflation are now raising questions about the risks associated with this programme. On the one hand, isn’t the pursuit of a highly expansionary monetary policy a source of financial instability? Conversely, a premature end to unconventional measures could undermine growth as well as the ECB’s capacity to achieve its objectives. Here, we study the dilemma facing the ECB [in French] based on an analysis of credit cycles and banking activity in the euro zone. [First paragraph

Quels effets attendre de la réduction du bilan des banques centrales ?

Cet article discute les perspectives de normalisation des politiques monétaires de la Réserve fédérale et de la BCE et estime la réaction de différents indicateurs financiers aux annonces sur l'orientation future de la politique monétaire américaine. Ces résultats peuvent s'avérer utiles pour appréhender les conséquences des décisions futures de la BCE sur la fin de ses programmes d'assouplissement quantitatif (Quantitative Easing ou QE). Nous montrons que les annonces de la Fed signalant le ralentissement ou la fin des programmes de QE, donc à caractère moins expansionniste voire restrictif, ont dans certains cas été suivies de baisses des taux d'intérêt. La gestion par la BCE des anticipations des marchés financiers sur le rythme de normalisation est donc déterminante

ALBUM: a tool for the analysis of slitless spectra and its application to ESO WFI data

ALBUM is a general-purpose tool to visualize and screen large amounts of slitless spectra. It was developed for a search for emission-line stars in SMC and LMC clusters. The observations were obtained with ESO's Wide Field Imager (WFI) and comprise ~8 million low-resolution spectra. The tool as well as the results of its application to the SMC part of the database are presented. The inferred frequency of Be stars is compared to the one in the higher-metallicity environment of the Milky Way.Comment: The 2007 ESO instrument calibration workshop, Garching bei Muenchen : Allemagne (2007); 4 page

La politique monétaire crée-t-elle des bulles ?

La mise en place par les banques centrales de politiques monétaires très expansionnistes depuis quelques années fait craindre que ces liquidités alimentent des bulles spéculatives sur différents prix d’actifs. Plutôt que d’évaluer l’effet de la politique monétaire sur les prix d’actifs, qui constitue l’un de ses canaux de transmission habituels, nous estimons la composante «bulle», c’est-à-dire la partie non-expliquée par des déterminants macroéconomiques et financiers, de trois prix d’actifs: actions, obligations et immobiliers, au niveau de la zone euro. Nous évaluons ensuite l’impact de la politique monétaire de la BCE sur ces trois composantes «bulle» et trouvons que leur processus n’est pas déterminé par la politique menée par la banque centrale, qu’elle soit expansionniste ou restrictive

Business failure prediction: simple-intuitive models versus statistical models

We give an overview of the shortcomings of the most frequently used statistical techniques in failure prediction modelling. The statistical procedures that underpin the selection of variables and the determination of coefficients often lead to ‘overfitting'. We also see that the ‘expected signs' of variables are sometimes neglected and that an underlying theoretical framework mostly does not exist. Based on the current knowledge of failing firms, we construct a new type of failure prediction models, namely ‘simple-intuitive models'. In these models, eight variables are first logit-transformed and then equally weighted. These models are tested on two broad validation samples (1 year prior to failure and 3 years prior to failure) of Belgian companies. The performance results of the best simple-intuitive model are comparable to those of less transparent and more complex statistical models