Parametric hazard rate models for long-term sickness absence

PURPOSE: In research on the time to onset of sickness absence and the duration of sickness absence episodes, Cox proportional hazard models are in common use. However, parametric models are to be preferred when time in itself is considered as independent variable. This study compares parametric hazard rate models for the onset of long-term sickness absence and return to work. METHOD: Prospective cohort study on sickness absence with four follow-up years of 53,830 employees working in the private sector in the Netherlands. The time to onset of long-term (>6 weeks) sickness absence and return to work were modelled by parametric hazard rate models. RESULTS: The exponential parametric model with a constant hazard rate most accurately described the time to onset of long-term sickness absence. Gompertz-Makeham models with monotonically declining hazard rates best described return to work. CONCLUSIONS: Parametric models offer more possibilities than commonly used models for time-dependent processes as sickness absence and return to work. However, the advantages of parametric models above Cox models apply mainly for return to work and less for onset of long-term sickness absence

Industrial energy use and the human life history

The demographic rates of most organisms are supported by the consumption of food energy, which is used to produce new biomass and fuel physiological processes. Unlike other species, modern humans use ‘extra-metabolic' energy sources acquired independent of physiology, which also influence demographics. We ask whether the amount of extra-metabolic energy added to the energy budget affects demographic and life history traits in a predictable way. Currently it is not known how human demographics respond to energy use, and we characterize this response using an allometric approach. All of the human life history traits we examine are significant functions of per capita energy use across industrialized populations. We find a continuum of traits from those that respond strongly to the amount of extra-metabolic energy used, to those that respond with shallow slopes. We also show that the differences in plasticity across traits can drive the net reproductive rate to below-replacement levels

Hitting sbottom in natural SUSY

We compare the experimental prospects of direct stop and sbottom pair production searches at the LHC. Such searches for stops are of great interest as they directly probe for states that are motivated by the SUSY solution to the hierarchy problem of the Higgs mass parameter - leading to a "Natural" SUSY spectrum. Noting that sbottom searches are less experimentally challenging and scale up in reach directly with the improvement on b-tagging algorithms, we discuss the interplay of small TeV scale custodial symmetry violation with sbottom direct pair production searches as a path to obtaining strong sub-TeV constraints on stops in a natural SUSY scenario. We argue that if a weak scale natural SUSY spectrum does not exist within the reach of LHC, then hopes for such a spectrum for large regions of parameter space should sbottom out. Conversely, the same arguments make clear that a discovery of such a spectrum is likely to proceed in a sbottom up manner.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures,v2 refs added, JHEP versio

General Aspects of Tree Level Gauge Mediation

Tree level gauge mediation (TGM) may be considered as the simplest way to communicate supersymmetry breaking: through the tree level renormalizable exchange of heavy gauge messengers. We study its general structure, in particular the general form of tree level sfermion masses and of one loop, but enhanced, gaugino masses. This allows us to set up general guidelines for model building and to identify the hypotheses underlying the phenomenological predictions. In the context of models based on the "minimal" gauge group SO(10), we show that only two "pure" embeddings of the MSSM fields are possible using $d< 120$ representations, each of them leading to specific predictions for the ratios of family universal sfermion masses at the GUT scale, $m^2_{\bar{5}} = 2 m^2_{10}$ or $m^2_{\bar{5}} = (3/4) m^2_{10}$ (in SU(5) notation). These ratios are determined by group factors and are peculiar enough to make this scheme testable at the LHC. We also discuss three possible approaches to the $\mu$-problem, one of them distinctive of TGM.Comment: 37 pages, 2 figure

Social Transmission and the Spread of Modern Contraception in Rural Ethiopia

Socio-economic development has proven to be insufficient to explain the time and pace of the human demographic transition. Shifts to low fertility norms have thus been thought to result from social diffusion, yet to date, micro-level studies are limited and are often unable to disentangle the effect of social transmission from that of extrinsic factors. We used data which included the first ever use of modern contraception among a population of over 900 women in four villages in rural Ethiopia, where contraceptive prevalence is still low (<20%). We investigated whether the time of adoption of modern contraception is predicted by (i) the proportion of ever-users/non ever-users within both women and their husbands' friendships networks and (ii) the geographic distance to contraceptive ever-users. Using a model comparison approach, we found that individual socio-demographic characteristics (e.g. parity, education) and a religious norm are the most likely explanatory factors of temporal and spatial patterns of contraceptive uptake, while the role of person-to-person contact through either friendship or spatial networks remains marginal. Our study has broad implications for understanding the processes that initiate transitions to low fertility and the uptake of birth control technologies in the developing world

Using Management Objectives to Specify Management Information Systems - A Contribution to MIS Success

Data warehouse projects, today, are in an ambivalent situation. On the one hand, data warehouses are critical for a company’s success and various methodological and technological tools are sophisticatedly developed to implement them. On the other hand, a significant amount of data warehouse projects fails due to non-technical reasons such as insufficient management support or in-corporative employees. But management support and user participation can be increased dramatically with specification methods that are understandable to these user groups. This paper aims at overcoming possible non-technical failure reasons by introducing a user-adequate specification approach within the field of management information systems.\u

Phenomenological Implications of Deflected Mirage Mediation: Comparison with Mirage Mediation

We compare the collider phenomenology of mirage mediation and deflected mirage mediation, which are two recently proposed "mixed" supersymmetry breaking scenarios motivated from string compactifications. The scenarios differ in that deflected mirage mediation includes contributions from gauge mediation in addition to the contributions from gravity mediation and anomaly mediation also present in mirage mediation. The threshold effects from gauge mediation can drastically alter the low energy spectrum from that of pure mirage mediation models, resulting in some cases in a squeezed gaugino spectrum and a gluino that is much lighter than other colored superpartners. We provide several benchmark deflected mirage mediation models and construct model lines as a function of the gauge mediation contributions, and discuss their discovery potential at the LHC.Comment: 29 pages, 9 figure

VEGF receptors on PC12 cells mediate transient activation of ERK1/2 and Akt: comparison of nerve growth factor and vascular endothelial growth factor

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and endostatin are angiogenic and anti-angiogenic molecules, respectively, that have been implicated in neurogenesis and neuronal survival. Using alkaline phosphatase fusion proteins, we show that the PC12 neuronal cell line contains cell membrane receptors for VEGF but not for endostatin and the collagen XV endostatin homologue. Immunocytochemistry confirmed that proliferating and differentiated PC12 cells express VEGF receptors 1, 2 and neuropilin-1. While no functional effects of VEGF on PC12 cell proliferation and differentiation could be observed, a slight VEGF-induced reduction of caspase-3 activity in differentiated apoptotic PC12 cells was paralleled by transient activation of ERK1/2 and Akt. In direct comparison, nerve growth factor proved to be a strikingly more potent neuroprotective agent than VEGF