Risk factors for postdischarge mortality following hospitalization for severe acute malnutrition in Zimbabwe and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Children discharged from hospital following management of complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) have a high risk of mortality, especially HIV-positive children. Few studies have examined mortality in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) era. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to ascertain 52-wk mortality in children discharged from hospital for management of complicated SAM, and to identify independent predictors of mortality. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted in children enrolled from 3 hospitals in Zambia and Zimbabwe between July 2016 and March 2018. The primary outcome was mortality at 52 wk. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for death, and to investigate whether HIV modifies these associations. RESULTS: Of 745 children, median age at enrolment was 17.4 mo (IQR: 12.8, 22.1 mo), 21.7% were HIV-positive, and 64.4% had edema. Seventy children (9.4%; 95% CI: 7.4, 11.7%) died and 26 exited during hospitalization; 649 were followed postdischarge. At discharge, 43.9% had ongoing SAM and only 50.8% of HIV-positive children were receiving ART. Vital status was ascertained for 604 (93.1%), of whom 55 (9.1%; 95% CI: 6.9, 11.7%) died at median 16.6 wk (IQR: 9.4, 21.9 wk). Overall, 20.0% (95% CI: 13.5, 27.9%) and 5.6% (95% CI: 3.8, 7.9%) of HIV-positive and HIV-negative children, respectively, died [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 3.83; 95% CI: 2.15, 6.82]. Additional independent risk factors for mortality were ongoing SAM (aHR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.22, 4.25), cerebral palsy (aHR: 5.60; 95% CI: 2.72, 11.50) and nonedematous SAM (aHR: 2.23; 95% CI: 1.24, 4.01), with no evidence of interaction with HIV status. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-positive children have an almost 4-fold higher mortality than HIV-negative children in the year following hospitalization for complicated SAM. A better understanding of causes of death, an improved continuum of care for HIV and SAM, and targeted interventions to improve convalescence are needed

Risk factors for inpatient mortality among children with severe acute malnutrition in Zimbabwe and Zambia

Background/Objectives: Malnutrition underlies 45% of deaths in children under-5 years annually. Children hospitalised with complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) have unacceptably high mortality. We aimed to identify variables from early hospital admission (baseline factors) independently associated with inpatient mortality in this cohort to identify those most at risk. Subjects/Methods: Observational study of 745 children aged 0–59 months admitted with complicated SAM at three hospitals in Zimbabwe/Zambia. Children underwent anthropometry and clinical assessment by a study physician within 72 h of enrolment, and caregivers provided sociodemographic data. Children were followed-up daily until discharge/death. A multivariable survival analysis identified the baseline factors independently associated with mortality. Results: 70/745 (9.4%) children died in hospital. Age between 6–23 months [aHR 6.53, 95%CI 2.24–19.02], higher mid-upper arm circumference [aHR 0.73, 95%CI 0.59–0.89], presence of oedema [aHR 2.22, 95%CI 1.23–4.05], shock [aHR 8.18, 95%CI 3.79–17.65], sepsis [aHR 3.13, 95%CI 1.44–6.80], persistent diarrhoea [aHR 2.27, 95%CI 1.18–4.37], lack of a toilet at home [aHR 4.35, 95%CI 1.65–11.47], and recruitment at one Harare site [aHR 0.38, 95%CI 0.18–0.83] were all independently associated with inpatient mortality. Oedematous children had a significantly higher birthweight [2987 g vs 2757 g, p < 0.001] than those without oedema; higher birthweight was weakly associated with mortality [aHR 1.50 95%CI 0.97–2.31]. Conclusions: Children with oedema, low MUAC, baseline infections, shock and lack of home sanitation had a significantly increased risk of inpatient mortality following hospitalisation for complicated SAM. Children with high-risk features may require additional care. A better understanding of the pathophysiology of SAM is needed to identify adjunctive interventions

Health outcomes, pathogenesis and epidemiology of severe acute malnutrition (HOPE-SAM): rationale and methods of a longitudinal observational study

Introduction: Mortality among children hospitalised for complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) remains high despite the implementation of WHO guidelines, particularly in settings of high HIV prevalence. Children continue to be at high risk of morbidity, mortality and relapse after discharge from hospital although long-term outcomes are not well documented. Better understanding the pathogenesis of SAM and the factors associated with poor outcomes may inform new therapeutic interventions. Methods and analysis: The Health Outcomes, Pathogenesis and Epidemiology of Severe Acute Malnutrition (HOPE-SAM) study is a longitudinal observational cohort that aims to evaluate the short-term and long-term clinical outcomes of HIV-positive and HIV-negative children with complicated SAM, and to identify the risk factors at admission and discharge from hospital that independently predict poor outcomes. Children aged 0–59 months hospitalised for SAM are being enrolled at three tertiary hospitals in Harare, Zimbabwe and Lusaka, Zambia. Longitudinal mortality, morbidity and nutritional data are being collected at admission, discharge and for 48 weeks post discharge. Nested laboratory substudies are exploring the role of enteropathy, gut microbiota, metabolomics and cellular immune function in the pathogenesis of SAM using stool, urine and blood collected from participants and from well-nourished controls

Oral abstracts of the 21st International AIDS Conference 18-22 July 2016, Durban, South Africa

The rate at which HIV-1 infected individuals progress to AIDS is highly variable and impacted by T cell immunity. CD8 T cell inhibitory molecules are up-regulated in HIV-1 infection and associate with immune dysfunction. We evaluated participants (n=122) recruited to the SPARTAC randomised clinical trial to determine whether CD8 T cell exhaustion markers PD-1, Lag-3 and Tim-3 were associated with immune activation and disease progression.Expression of PD-1, Tim-3, Lag-3 and CD38 on CD8 T cells from the closest pre-therapy time-point to seroconversion was measured by flow cytometry, and correlated with surrogate markers of HIV-1 disease (HIV-1 plasma viral load (pVL) and CD4 T cell count) and the trial endpoint (time to CD4 count <350 cells/μl or initiation of antiretroviral therapy). To explore the functional significance of these markers, co-expression of Eomes, T-bet and CD39 was assessed.Expression of PD-1 on CD8 and CD38 CD8 T cells correlated with pVL and CD4 count at baseline, and predicted time to the trial endpoint. Lag-3 expression was associated with pVL but not CD4 count. For all exhaustion markers, expression of CD38 on CD8 T cells increased the strength of associations. In Cox models, progression to the trial endpoint was most marked for PD-1/CD38 co-expressing cells, with evidence for a stronger effect within 12 weeks from confirmed diagnosis of PHI. The effect of PD-1 and Lag-3 expression on CD8 T cells retained statistical significance in Cox proportional hazards models including antiretroviral therapy and CD4 count, but not pVL as co-variants.Expression of ‘exhaustion’ or ‘immune checkpoint’ markers in early HIV-1 infection is associated with clinical progression and is impacted by immune activation and the duration of infection. New markers to identify exhausted T cells and novel interventions to reverse exhaustion may inform the development of novel immunotherapeutic approaches

Fat and lean mass predict time to hospital readmission or mortality in children treated for complicated severe acute malnutrition in Zimbabwe and Zambia

HIV and severe wasting are associated with post-discharge mortality and hospital readmission among children with complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM); however, the reasons remain unclear. We assessed body composition at hospital discharge, stratified by HIV and oedema status, in a cohort of children with complicated SAM in three hospitals in Zambia and Zimbabwe. We measured skinfold thicknesses and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) to investigate whether fat and lean mass were independent predictors of time to death or readmission. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between death/readmission and discharge body composition. Mixed effects models were fitted to compare longitudinal changes in body composition over 1 year. At discharge, 284 and 546 children had complete BIA and skinfold measurements, respectively. Low discharge lean and peripheral fat mass were independently associated with death/hospital readmission. Each unit Z-score increase in impedance index and triceps skinfolds was associated with 48 % (adjusted hazard ratio 0·52, 95 % CI (0·30, 0·90)) and 17 % (adjusted hazard ratio 0·83, 95 % CI (0·71, 0·96)) lower hazard of death/readmission, respectively. HIV-positive v. HIV-negative children had lower gains in sum of skinfolds (mean difference -1·49, 95 % CI (-2·01, -0·97)) and impedance index Z-scores (-0·13, 95 % CI (-0·24, -0·01)) over 52 weeks. Children with non-oedematous v. oedematous SAM had lower mean changes in the sum of skinfolds (-1·47, 95 % CI (-1·97, -0·97)) and impedance index Z-scores (-0·23, 95 % CI (-0·36, -0·09)). Risk stratification to identify children at risk for mortality or readmission, and interventions to increase lean and peripheral fat mass, should be considered in the post-discharge care of these children

Fat and lean mass predict time to hospital readmission or mortality in children treated for complicated severe acute malnutrition in Zimbabwe and Zambia.

HIV and severe wasting are associated with post-discharge mortality and hospital readmission among children with complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM); however, the reasons remain unclear. We assessed body composition at hospital discharge, stratified by HIV and oedema status, in a cohort of children with complicated SAM in three hospitals in Zambia and Zimbabwe. We measured skinfold thicknesses and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) to investigate whether fat and lean mass were independent predictors of time to death or readmission. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between death/readmission and discharge body composition. Mixed effects models were fitted to compare longitudinal changes in body composition over one year. At discharge, 284 and 546 children had complete BIA and skinfold measurements, respectively. Low discharge lean and peripheral fat mass were independently associated with death/hospital readmission. Each unit z-score increase in impedance index and triceps skinfolds was associated with 48% (aHR 0.52, 95%CI 0.30,0.90) and 17% (aHR 0.83, 95%CI 0.71, 0.96) lower hazard of death/readmission respectively. HIV-positive versus HIV-negative children had lower gains in sum of skinfolds (mean difference -1.49, 95%CI -2.01, -0.97) and impedance index z-scores (-0.13, 95%CI -0.24, -0.01) over 52 weeks. Children with non-oedematous versus oedematous SAM had lower mean changes in sum of skinfolds (-1.47, 95%CI -1.97, -0.97) and impedance index z-scores (-0.23, 95%CI -0.36, -0.09). Risk stratification to identify children at risk for mortality or readmission, and interventions to increase lean and peripheral fat mass, should be considered in the post-discharge care of these children

Risk factors for inpatient mortality among children with severe acute malnutrition in Zimbabwe and Zambia.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Malnutrition underlies 45% of deaths in children under-5 years annually. Children hospitalised with complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) have unacceptably high mortality. We aimed to identify variables from early hospital admission (baseline factors) independently associated with inpatient mortality in this cohort to identify those most at risk. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Observational study of 745 children aged 0-59 months admitted with complicated SAM at three hospitals in Zimbabwe/Zambia. Children underwent anthropometry and clinical assessment by a study physician within 72 h of enrolment, and caregivers provided sociodemographic data. Children were followed-up daily until discharge/death. A multivariable survival analysis identified the baseline factors independently associated with mortality. RESULTS: 70/745 (9.4%) children died in hospital. Age between 6-23 months [aHR 6.53, 95%CI 2.24-19.02], higher mid-upper arm circumference [aHR 0.73, 95%CI 0.59-0.89], presence of oedema [aHR 2.22, 95%CI 1.23-4.05], shock [aHR 8.18, 95%CI 3.79-17.65], sepsis [aHR 3.13, 95%CI 1.44-6.80], persistent diarrhoea [aHR 2.27, 95%CI 1.18-4.37], lack of a toilet at home [aHR 4.35, 95%CI 1.65-11.47], and recruitment at one Harare site [aHR 0.38, 95%CI 0.18-0.83] were all independently associated with inpatient mortality. Oedematous children had a significantly higher birthweight [2987 g vs 2757 g, p < 0.001] than those without oedema; higher birthweight was weakly associated with mortality [aHR 1.50 95%CI 0.97-2.31]. CONCLUSIONS: Children with oedema, low MUAC, baseline infections, shock and lack of home sanitation had a significantly increased risk of inpatient mortality following hospitalisation for complicated SAM. Children with high-risk features may require additional care. A better understanding of the pathophysiology of SAM is needed to identify adjunctive interventions

Health Outcomes, Pathogenesis and Epidemiology of Severe Acute Malnutrition (HOPE-SAM): rationale and methods of a longitudinal observational study

Introduction Mortality among children hospitalised for complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) remains high despite the implementation of WHO guidelines, particularly in settings of high HIV prevalence. Children continue to be at high risk of morbidity, mortality and relapse after discharge from hospital although long-term outcomes are not well documented. Better understanding the pathogenesis of SAM and the factors associated with poor outcomes may inform new therapeutic interventions. Methods and analysis The Health Outcomes, Pathogenesis and Epidemiology of Severe Acute Malnutrition (HOPE-SAM) study is a longitudinal observational cohort that aims to evaluate the short-term and long-term clinical outcomes of HIV-positive and HIV-negative children with complicated SAM, and to identify the risk factors at admission and discharge from hospital that independently predict poor outcomes. Children aged 0–59 months hospitalised for SAM are being enrolled at three tertiary hospitals in Harare, Zimbabwe and Lusaka, Zambia. Longitudinal mortality, morbidity and nutritional data are being collected at admission, discharge and for 48 weeks post discharge. Nested laboratory substudies are exploring the role of enteropathy, gut microbiota, metabolomics and cellular immune function in the pathogenesis of SAM using stool, urine and blood collected from participants and from well-nourished controls. Ethics and dissemination The study is approved by the local and international institutional review boards in the participating countries (the Joint Research Ethics Committee of the University of Zimbabwe, Medical Research Council of Zimbabwe and University of Zambia Biomedical Research Ethics Committee) and the study sponsor (Queen Mary University of London). Caregivers provide written informed consent for each participant. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations and to caregivers at face-to-face meetingsThis work was supported by the Medical Research Council UK (MR/ K012711/1), the Wellcome Trust (107634/Z/15/Z to MB-D; 206225/Z/17/Z to CDB, an award funded in partnership with the Royal Society; 206455/Z/17/Z to RCR; and 108065/Z/15/Z to AJP), and a Bio-Resource Grant from the Centre for Genomic Health within the Life Sciences Initiative at Queen Mary University of London