A generic approach for the development of short-term predictions of Escherichia coli and biotoxins in shellfish

Microbiological contamination or elevated marine biotoxin concentrations within shellfish can result in temporary closure of shellfish aquaculture harvesting, leading to financial loss for the aquaculture business and a potential reduction in consumer confidence in shellfish products. We present a method for predicting short-term variations in shellfish concentrations of Escherichia coli and biotoxin (okadaic acid and its derivates dinophysistoxins and pectenotoxins). The approach was evaluated for 2 contrasting shellfish harvesting areas. Through a meta-data analysis and using environmental data in situ, satellite observations and meteorological nowcasts and forecasts), key environmental drivers were identified and used to develop models to predict E. coli and biotoxin concentrations within shellfish. Models were trained and evaluated using independent datasets, and the best models were identified based on the model exhibiting the lowest root mean square error. The best biotoxin model was able to provide 1 wk forecasts with an accuracy of 86%, a 0% false positive rate and a 0% false discovery rate (n = 78 observations) when used to predict the closure of shellfish beds due to biotoxin. The best E. coli models were used to predict the European hygiene classification of the shellfish beds to an accuracy of 99% (n = 107 observations) and 98% (n = 63 observations) for a bay (St Austell Bay) and an estuary (Turnaware Bar), respectively. This generic approach enables high accuracy short-term farm-specific forecasts, based on readily accessible environmental data and observations

Maximal Spontaneous Photon Emission and Energy Loss from Free Electrons

Free electron radiation such as Cerenkov, Smith--Purcell, and transition radiation can be greatly affected by structured optical environments, as has been demonstrated in a variety of polaritonic, photonic-crystal, and metamaterial systems. However, the amount of radiation that can ultimately be extracted from free electrons near an arbitrary material structure has remained elusive. Here we derive a fundamental upper limit to the spontaneous photon emission and energy loss of free electrons, regardless of geometry, which illuminates the effects of material properties and electron velocities. We obtain experimental evidence for our theory with quantitative measurements of Smith--Purcell radiation. Our framework allows us to make two predictions. One is a new regime of radiation operation---at subwavelength separations, slower (nonrelativistic) electrons can achieve stronger radiation than fast (relativistic) electrons. The second is a divergence of the emission probability in the limit of lossless materials. We further reveal that such divergences can be approached by coupling free electrons to photonic bound states in the continuum (BICs). Our findings suggest that compact and efficient free-electron radiation sources from microwaves to the soft X-ray regime may be achievable without requiring ultrahigh accelerating voltages.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Reconstructing the eclectic psychiatry of Thomas Ferguson Rodger

This article provides an introduction to the approach of the Scottish psychiatrist Thomas Ferguson Rodger (1907–78), as reconstructed from his archive. Rodger’s contribution has been largely neglected within the history of Scottish psychiatry. This paper amends this neglect through situating Rodger’s eclecticism in relation to both the biopsychosocial approach of his mentors, Adolf Meyer and David Henderson, and psychiatry’s de-institutionalization in the 1950s and 1960s. It is posited that Rodger’s eclecticism was a considered response to the pressures of this transitional phase to balance physical, psychological and social approaches, and a critical acknowledgement of the instability of contemporary psychiatric therapeutics. More psychodynamic than his predecessors, the importance of social relations for Rodger led him to acknowledge psychiatry’s limitations

Early menarche and childhood adversities in a nationally representative sample

Background: Epidemiological evidence suggests that early menarche, defined as onset of menses at age 11 or earlier, has increased in prevalence in recent birth cohorts and is associated with multiple poor medical and mental health outcomes in adulthood. There is evidence that childhood adversities occurring prior to menarche contribute to early menarche.Methods: Data collected in face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of women age 18 and over (N = 3288), as part of the National Comorbidity Survey-Replication, were analyzed. Associations between pre-menarchal childhood adversities and menarche at age 11 or earlier were estimated in discrete time survival models with statistical adjustment for age at interview, ethnicity, and body mass index. Adversities investigated included physical abuse, sexual abuse, neglect, biological father absence from the home, other parent loss, parent mental illness, parent substance abuse, parent criminality, inter-parental violence, serious physical illness in childhood, and family economic adversity.Results: Mean age at menarche varied across decadal birth cohorts (χ2(4) = 21.41, p < .001) ranging from a high of 12.9 years in the oldest cohort (age 59 or older at the time of interview) to a low of 12.4 in the second youngest cohort (age 28-37). Childhood adversities were also more common in younger than older cohorts. Of the 11 childhood adversities, 5 were associated with menarche at age 11 or earlier, with OR of 1.3 or greater. Each of these five adversities is associated with a 26% increase in the odds of early menarche (OR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.14-1.39). The relationship between childhood sexual abuse and early menarche was sustained after adjustment for co-occurring adversities. (OR = 1.77, 95% CI 1.21-2.6).Conclusions: Evidence from this study is consistent with hypothesized physiological effects of early childhood family environment on endocrine development. Childhood sexual abuse is the adversity most strongly associated with early menarche. However, because of the complex way that childhood adversities cluster within families, the more generalized influence of highly dysfunctional family environments cannot be ruled out

Are lay people good at recognising the symptoms of schizophrenia?

©2013 Erritty, Wydell. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Aim: The aim of this study was to explore the general public’s perception of schizophrenia symptoms and the need to seekhelp for symptoms. The recognition (or ‘labelling’) of schizophrenia symptoms, help-seeking behaviours and public awareness of schizophrenia have been suggested as potentially important factors relating to untreated psychosis. Method: Participants were asked to rate to what extent they believe vignettes describing classic symptoms (positive and negative) of schizophrenia indicate mental illness. They were also asked if the individuals depicted in the vignettes required help or treatment and asked to suggest what kind of help or treatment. Results: Only three positive symptoms (i.e., Hallucinatory behaviour, Unusual thought content and Suspiciousness) of schizophrenia were reasonably well perceived (above 70%) as indicating mental illness more than the other positive or negative symptoms. Even when the participants recognised that the symptoms indicated mental illness, not everyone recommended professional help. Conclusion: There may be a need to improve public awareness of schizophrenia and psychosis symptoms, particularly regarding an awareness of the importance of early intervention for psychosis

Fractional Cauchy problems on bounded domains: survey of recent results

In a fractional Cauchy problem, the usual first order time derivative is replaced by a fractional derivative. This problem was first considered by \citet{nigmatullin}, and \citet{zaslavsky} in $\mathbb R^d$ for modeling some physical phenomena. The fractional derivative models time delays in a diffusion process. We will give a survey of the recent results on the fractional Cauchy problem and its generalizations on bounded domains D\subset \rd obtained in \citet{m-n-v-aop, mnv-2}. We also study the solutions of fractional Cauchy problem where the first time derivative is replaced with an infinite sum of fractional derivatives. We point out a connection to eigenvalue problems for the fractional time operators considered. The solutions to the eigenvalue problems are expressed by Mittag-Leffler functions and its generalized versions. The stochastic solution of the eigenvalue problems for the fractional derivatives are given by inverse subordinators

Characterisation of GLUT4 trafficking in HeLa cells: Comparable kinetics and orthologous trafficking mechanisms to 3T3-L1 adipocytes

Insulin-stimulated glucose transport is a characteristic property of adipocytes and muscle cells and involves the regulated delivery of glucose transporter (GLUT4)- containing vesicles from intracellular stores to the cell surface. Fusion of these vesicles results in increased numbers of GLUT4 molecules at the cell surface. In an attempt to overcome some of the limitations associated with both primary and cultured adipocytes, we expressed an epitope- and GFP-tagged version of GLUT4 (HA–GLUT4–GFP) in HeLa cells. Here we report the characterisation of this system compared to 3T3-L1 adipocytes. We show that insulin promotes translocation of HA–GLUT4–GFP to the surface of both cell types with similar kinetics using orthologous trafficking machinery. While the magnitude of the insulin-stimulated translocation of GLUT4 is smaller than mouse 3T3-L1 adipocytes, HeLa cells offer a useful, experimentally tractable, human model system. Here, we exemplify their utility through a small-scale siRNA screen to identify GOSR1 and YKT6 as potential novel regulators of GLUT4 trafficking in human cells

Determinants of Acceptance of Cervical Cancer Screening in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

To describe how demographic characteristics and knowledge of cervical cancer influence screening acceptance among women living in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Multistage cluster sampling was carried out in 45 randomly selected streets in Dar es Salaam. Women between the ages of 25-59 who lived in the sampled streets were invited to a cervical cancer screening; 804 women accepted and 313 rejected the invitation. Information on demographic characteristics and knowledge of cervical cancer were obtained through structured questionnaire interviews. Women aged 35-44 and women aged 45-59 had increased ORs of 3.52 and 7.09, respectively, for accepting screening. Increased accepting rates were also found among single women (OR 2.43) and among women who had attended primary or secondary school (ORs of 1.81 and 1.94). Women who had 0-2 children were also more prone to accept screening in comparison with women who had five or more children (OR 3.21). Finally, knowledge of cervical cancer and awareness of the existing screening program were also associated with increased acceptance rates (ORs of 5.90 and 4.20). There are identifiable subgroups where cervical cancer screening can be increased in Dar es Salaam. Special attention should be paid to women of low education and women of high parity. In addition, knowledge and awareness raising campaigns that goes hand in hand with culturally acceptable screening services will likely lead to an increased uptake of cervical cancer screening

Universality in Systems with Power-Law Memory and Fractional Dynamics

There are a few different ways to extend regular nonlinear dynamical systems by introducing power-law memory or considering fractional differential/difference equations instead of integer ones. This extension allows the introduction of families of nonlinear dynamical systems converging to regular systems in the case of an integer power-law memory or an integer order of derivatives/differences. The examples considered in this review include the logistic family of maps (converging in the case of the first order difference to the regular logistic map), the universal family of maps, and the standard family of maps (the latter two converging, in the case of the second difference, to the regular universal and standard maps). Correspondingly, the phenomenon of transition to chaos through a period doubling cascade of bifurcations in regular nonlinear systems, known as "universality", can be extended to fractional maps, which are maps with power-/asymptotically power-law memory. The new features of universality, including cascades of bifurcations on single trajectories, which appear in fractional (with memory) nonlinear dynamical systems are the main subject of this review.Comment: 23 pages 7 Figures, to appear Oct 28 201