Risk prediction model for knee pain in the Nottingham Community: a Bayesian modeling approach

Background: 25% of the British population over the age of 50 experience knee pain. It can limit physical ability, cause distress and bears significant socioeconomic costs. Knee pain, not knee osteoarthritis (KOA) is the all to common malady. The objectives of this study were to develop and validate the first risk prediction model for incident knee pain in the Nottingham community and validate this internally within the Nottingham cohort and externally within the Osteoarthritis Initiaitve (OAI) Cohort. Methods: 1822 participants at risk for knee pain from the Nottingham community were followed up for 12 years. Of this cohort, 2/3 (n=1203) were used to develop the risk prediction model and 1/3 (n=619) were used to validate the model. Incident knee pain was defined as pain on most days for at least one month in the past 12 months. Predictors were age, gender, body mass index (BMI), pain elsewhere, prior knee injury and knee alignment. Bayesian logistic regression model was used to determine the probability of an odds ratio >1. The Hosmer-Lemeshow x2 statistic (HLS) was used for calibration and receiver operator characteristics (ROC) was used for discrimination. The OAI cohort was used to examine the performance of the model in a secondary care population. Results: A risk prediction model for knee pain incidence was developed using a Bayesian approach. The model had good calibration with HLS of 7.17 (p=0.52) and moderate discriminative abilities (ROC 0.70) in the community. Individual scenarios are given using the model. However, the model had poor calibration (HLS 5866.28, p<0.01) and poor discriminative ability (ROC 0.54) in the OAI secondary care dataset. Conclusion: This is the first risk prediction model for knee pain, irrespective of underlying structural changes of KOA, in the community using a Bayesian modelling approach. The model appears to work well in a community-based population but not in a hospital derived cohort and may provide a convenient tool for primary care to predict the risk of knee pain in the general population

The changing form of Antarctic biodiversity

Antarctic biodiversity is much more extensive, ecologically diverse and biogeographically structured than previously thought. Understanding of how this diversity is distributed in marine and terrestrial systems, the mechanisms underlying its spatial variation, and the significance of the microbiota is growing rapidly. Broadly recognizable drivers of diversity variation include energy availability and historical refugia. The impacts of local human activities and global environmental change nonetheless pose challenges to the current and future understanding of Antarctic biodiversity. Life in the Antarctic and the Southern Ocean is surprisingly rich, and as much at risk from environmental change as it is elsewher

Reductions in co-contraction following neuromuscular re-education in people with knee osteoarthritis

Background Both increased knee muscle co-contraction and alterations in central pain processing have been suggested to play a role in knee osteoarthritis pain. However, current interventions do not target either of these mechanisms. The Alexander Technique provides neuromuscular re-education and may also influence anticipation of pain. This study therefore sought to investigate the potential clinical effectiveness of the AT intervention in the management of knee osteoarthritis and also to identify a possible mechanism of action. Methods A cohort of 21 participants with confirmed knee osteoarthritis were given 20 lessons of instruction in the Alexander Technique. In addition to clinical outcomes EMG data, quantifying knee muscle co-contraction and EEG data, characterising brain activity during anticipation of pain, were collected. All data were compared between baseline and post-intervention time points with a further 15-month clinical follow up. In addition, biomechanical data were collected from a healthy control group and compared with the data from the osteoarthritis subjects. Results: Following AT instruction the mean WOMAC pain score reduced by 56% from 9.6 to 4.2 (P<0.01) and this reduction was maintained at 15 month follow up. There was a clear decrease in medial co-contraction at the end of the intervention, towards the levels observed in the healthy control group, both during a pre-contact phase of gait (p<0.05) and during early stance (p<0.01). However, no changes in pain-anticipatory brain activity were observed. Interestingly, decreases in WOMAC pain were associated with reductions in medial co-contraction during the pre-contact phase of gait. Conclusions: This is the first study to investigate the potential effectiveness of an intervention aimed at increasing awareness of muscle behaviour in the clinical management of knee osteoarthritis. These data suggest a complex relationship between muscle contraction, joint loading and pain and support the idea that excessive muscle co-contraction may be a maladaptive response in this patient group. Furthermore, these data provide evidence that, if the activation of certain muscles can be reduced during gait, this may lead to positive long-term clinical outcomes. This finding challenges clinical management models of knee osteoarthritis which focus primarily on muscle strengthening

KRILLBASE: a circumpolar database of Antarctic krill and salp numerical densities, 1926–2016

Abstract. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and salps are major macroplankton contributors to Southern Ocean food webs and krill are also fished commercially. Managing this fishery sustainably, against a backdrop of rapid regional climate change, requires information on distribution and time trends. Many data on the abundance of both taxa have been obtained from net sampling surveys since 1926, but much of this is stored in national archives, sometimes only in notebooks. In order to make these important data accessible we have collated available abundance data (numerical density, no. m−2) of postlarval E. superba and salp individual (multiple species, and whether singly or in chains). These were combined into a central database, KRILLBASE, together with environmental information, standardisation and metadata. The aim is to provide a temporal-spatial data resource to support a variety of research such as biogeochemistry, autecology, higher predator foraging and food web modelling in addition to fisheries management and conservation. Previous versions of KRILLBASE have led to a series of papers since 2004 which illustrate some of the potential uses of this database. With increasing numbers of requests for these data we here provide an updated version of KRILLBASE that contains data from 15 194 net hauls, including 12 758 with krill abundance data and 9726 with salp abundance data. These data were collected by 10 nations and span 56 seasons in two epochs (1926–1939 and 1976–2016). Here, we illustrate the seasonal, inter-annual, regional and depth coverage of sampling, and provide both circumpolar- and regional-scale distribution maps. Krill abundance data have been standardised to accommodate variation in sampling methods, and we have presented these as well as the raw data. Information is provided on how to screen, interpret and use KRILLBASE to reduce artefacts in interpretation, with contact points for the main data providers. The DOI for the published data set is doi:10.5285/8b00a915-94e3-4a04-a903-dd4956346439. </jats:p

Diet and asthma: looking back, moving forward

Asthma is an increasing global health burden, especially in the western world. Public health interventions are sought to lessen its prevalence or severity, and diet and nutrition have been identified as potential factors. With rapid changes in diet being one of the hallmarks of westernization, nutrition may play a key role in affecting the complex genetics and developmental pathophysiology of asthma. The present review investigates hypotheses about hygiene, antioxidants, lipids and other nutrients, food types and dietary patterns, breastfeeding, probiotics and intestinal microbiota, vitamin D, maternal diet, and genetics. Early hypotheses analyzed population level trends and focused on major dietary factors such as antioxidants and lipids. More recently, larger dietary patterns beyond individual nutrients have been investigated such as obesity, fast foods, and the Mediterranean diet. Despite some promising hypotheses and findings, there has been no conclusive evidence about the role of specific nutrients, food types, or dietary patterns past early childhood on asthma prevalence. However, diet has been linked to the development of the fetus and child. Breastfeeding provides immunological protection when the infant's immune system is immature and a modest protective effect against wheeze in early childhood. Moreover, maternal diet may be a significant factor in the development of the fetal airway and immune system. As asthma is a complex disease of gene-environment interactions, maternal diet may play an epigenetic role in sensitizing fetal airways to respond abnormally to environmental insults. Recent hypotheses show promise in a biological approach in which the effects of dietary factors on individual physiology and immunology are analyzed before expansion into larger population studies. Thus, collaboration is required by various groups in studying this enigma from epidemiologists to geneticists to immunologists. It is now apparent that this multidisciplinary approach is required to move forward and understand the complexity of the interaction of dietary factors and asthma