Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD) have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs) that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs) and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs). It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007). In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard) model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995–99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG procedure stemming from changed CARP preference following the introduction of PCI operations involving stents.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There is often knowledge and sometimes quantitative evidence of the expected impacts of changes in surgical practice and procedure effectiveness and these may be used to improve forecasts of future requirements for CARPs in a population.</p

Default-Mode-Like Network Activation in Awake Rodents

During wakefulness and in absence of performing tasks or sensory processing, the default-mode network (DMN), an intrinsic central nervous system (CNS) network, is in an active state. Non-human primate and human CNS imaging studies have identified the DMN in these two species. Clinical imaging studies have shown that the pattern of activity within the DMN is often modulated in various disease states (e.g., Alzheimer's, schizophrenia or chronic pain). However, whether the DMN exists in awake rodents has not been characterized. The current data provides evidence that awake rodents also possess ‘DMN-like’ functional connectivity, but only subsequent to habituation to what is initially a novel magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) environment as well as physical restraint. Specifically, the habituation process spanned across four separate scanning sessions (Day 2, 4, 6 and 8). At Day 8, significant (p<0.05) functional connectivity was observed amongst structures such as the anterior cingulate (seed region), retrosplenial, parietal, and hippocampal cortices. Prior to habituation (Day 2), functional connectivity was only detected (p<0.05) amongst CNS structures known to mediate anxiety (i.e., anterior cingulate (seed region), posterior hypothalamic area, amygdala and parabracial nucleus). In relating functional connectivity between cingulate-default-mode and cingulate-anxiety structures across Days 2-8, a significant inverse relationship (r = −0.65, p = 0.0004) was observed between these two functional interactions such that increased cingulate-DMN connectivity corresponded to decreased cingulate anxiety network connectivity. This investigation demonstrates that the cingulate is an important component of both the rodent DMN-like and anxiety networks

Interactions between Natural Populations of Human and Rodent Schistosomes in the Lake Victoria Region of Kenya: A Molecular Epidemiological Approach

One of the world's most prevalent neglected diseases is schistosomiasis, which infects approximately 200 million people worldwide. Schistosoma mansoni is transmitted to humans by skin penetration by free-living larvae that develop in freshwater snails. The origin of this species is East Africa, where it coexists with its sister species, S. rodhaini. Interactions between these species potentially influence their epidemiology, ecology, and evolutionary biology, because they infect the same species of hosts and can hybridize. Over two years, we examined their distribution in Kenya to determine their degree of overlap geographically, within snail hosts, and in the water column as infective stages. Both species were spatially and temporally patchy, although S. mansoni was eight times more common than S. rodhaini. Both species overlap in the time of day they were present in the water column, which increases the potential for the species to coinfect the same host and interbreed. Peak infective time for S. mansoni was midday and dawn and dusk for S. rodhaini. Three snails were coinfected, which was more common than expected by chance. These findings indicate a lack of obvious isolating mechanisms to prevent hybridization, raising the intriguing question of how the two species retain separate identities

An endangered seahorse selectively chooses an artificial structure

The development of a residential marina estate within the Knysna estuary, South Africa, introduced Reno mattresses (horizontal wire cages filled with rocks) as a novel habitat for the endangered Knysna seahorse Hippocampus capensis. Consistently high seahorse densities on these artificial structures, despite the availability of seagrass habitat, begged the question of whether this habitat was chosen by the seahorse in preference to natural vegetation. An in situ habitat choice experiment was conducted which focused on the choice made by adult H. capensis between natural vegetation (Zostera capensis) and artificial (Reno mattress) habitat within a choice chamber. Seahorses were significantly more likely to move away from Z. capensis onto a Reno mattress structure or remain on this structure. This study concludes that higher H. capensis densities on Reno mattresses within Thesen Islands Marina are owing to some positive feature of this habitat and the underlying processes responsible for the choice made by this species (additional food, holdfasts, protection) can now be investigated

Mitochondrial physiology

As the knowledge base and importance of mitochondrial physiology to evolution, health and disease expands, the necessity for harmonizing the terminology concerning mitochondrial respiratory states and rates has become increasingly apparent. The chemiosmotic theory establishes the mechanism of energy transformation and coupling in oxidative phosphorylation. The unifying concept of the protonmotive force provides the framework for developing a consistent theoretical foundation of mitochondrial physiology and bioenergetics. We follow the latest SI guidelines and those of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) on terminology in physical chemistry, extended by considerations of open systems and thermodynamics of irreversible processes. The concept-driven constructive terminology incorporates the meaning of each quantity and aligns concepts and symbols with the nomenclature of classical bioenergetics. We endeavour to provide a balanced view of mitochondrial respiratory control and a critical discussion on reporting data of mitochondrial respiration in terms of metabolic flows and fluxes. Uniform standards for evaluation of respiratory states and rates will ultimately contribute to reproducibility between laboratories and thus support the development of data repositories of mitochondrial respiratory function in species, tissues, and cells. Clarity of concept and consistency of nomenclature facilitate effective transdisciplinary communication, education, and ultimately further discovery

Differential and shared genetic effects on kidney function between diabetic and non-diabetic individuals

A large-scale GWAS provides insight on diabetes-dependent genetic effects on the glomerular filtration rate, a common metric to monitor kidney health in disease.Reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) can progress to kidney failure. Risk factors include genetics and diabetes mellitus (DM), but little is known about their interaction. We conducted genome-wide association meta-analyses for estimated GFR based on serum creatinine (eGFR), separately for individuals with or without DM (nDM = 178,691, nnoDM = 1,296,113). Our genome-wide searches identified (i) seven eGFR loci with significant DM/noDM-difference, (ii) four additional novel loci with suggestive difference and (iii) 28 further novel loci (including CUBN) by allowing for potential difference. GWAS on eGFR among DM individuals identified 2 known and 27 potentially responsible loci for diabetic kidney disease. Gene prioritization highlighted 18 genes that may inform reno-protective drug development. We highlight the existence of DM-only and noDM-only effects, which can inform about the target group, if respective genes are advanced as drug targets. Largely shared effects suggest that most drug interventions to alter eGFR should be effective in DM and noDM.</p