Deaths among tuberculosis cases in Shanghai, China: who is at risk?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Information about the risk factors associated with death caused by tuberculosis (TB) or death with TB would allow improvements in the clinical care of TB patients and save lives. The present study sought to identify characteristics associated with increased risk of death during anti-TB treatment in Shanghai, a city in China with one of the country's highest TB mortality rates.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We evaluated deaths among culture positive pulmonary TB cases that were diagnosed in Shanghai during 2000–2004 and initiated anti-TB therapy. Demographic, clinical, mycobacteriological information and treatment outcomes were routinely collected through a mandatory reporting system.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 7,999 culture positive pulmonary cases reported during the study period. The overall case fatality rate was 5.5% (440 cases), and approximately half (50.5%) of the deaths were attributed to causes other than TB. Eighty-six percent of the deaths were among TB cases age ≥ 60 years. The significant independent risk factors for mortality during anti-TB treatment were advancing age, male sex, sputum smear positivity, and the presence of a comorbidity.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>More vigorous clinical management and prevention strategies by both the TB control program and other public health programs are essential to improve TB treatment outcomes. Earlier suspicion, diagnosis and treatment of TB, especially among persons older than 60 years of age and those with a comorbid condition, could reduce deaths among TB patients.</p

A prediction rule to stratify mortality risk of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis

Tuberculosis imposes high human and economic tolls, including in Europe. This study was conducted to develop a severity assessment tool for stratifying mortality risk in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients. A derivation cohort of 681 PTB cases was retrospectively reviewed to generate a model based on multiple logistic regression analysis of prognostic variables with 6-month mortality as the outcome measure. A clinical scoring system was developed and tested against a validation cohort of 103 patients. Five risk features were selected for the prediction model: hypoxemic respiratory failure (OR 4.7, 95% CI 2.8-7.9), age >= 50 years (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.7-4.8), bilateral lung involvement (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.44.4), >= 1 significant comorbidity-HIV infection, diabetes mellitus, liver failure or cirrhosis, congestive heart failure and chronic respiratory disease-(OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3-3.8), and hemoglobin = 6) mortality risk. The mortality associated with each group was 2.9%, 22.9% and 53.9%, respectively. The model performed equally well in the validation cohort. We provide a new, easy-to-use clinical scoring system to identify PTB patients with high-mortality risk in settings with good healthcare access, helping clinicians to decide which patients are in need of closer medical care during treatment.This work was supported by Fundacao Amelia de Mello/Jose de Mello Saude and Sociedade Portuguesa de Pneumologia (SPP). This work was developed under the scope of the project NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000013, supported by the Northern Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the Portugal 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER). NSO is a FCT (Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia) investigator. MS is an Associate FCT Investigator. The fundershad no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Assessing Tuberculosis Case Fatality Ratio: A Meta-Analysis

Background: Recently, the tuberculosis (TB) Task Force Impact Measurement acknowledged the need to review the assumptions underlying the TB mortality estimates published annually by the World Health Organization (WHO). TB mortality is indirectly measured by multiplying estimated TB incidence with estimated case fatality ratio (CFR). We conducted a meta-analysis to estimate the TB case fatality ratio in TB patients having initiated TB treatment. Methods: We searched for eligible studies in the PubMed and Embase databases through March 4(th) 2011 and by reference listing of relevant review articles. Main analyses included the estimation of the pooled percentages of: a) TB patients dying due to TB after having initiated TB treatment and b) TB patients dying during TB treatment. Pooled percentages were estimated using random effects regression models on the combined patient population from all studies. Main Results: We identified 69 relevant studies of which 22 provided data on mortality due to TB and 59 provided data on mortality during TB treatment. Among HIV infected persons the pooled percentage of TB patients dying due to TB was 9.2% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.7%-14.7%) and among HIV uninfected persons 3.0% (95% CI: 21.2%-7.4%) based on the results of eight and three studies respectively providing data for this analyses. The pooled percentage of TB patients dying during TB treatment was 18.8% (95% CI: 14.8%-22.8%) among HIV infected patients and 3.5% (95% CI: 2.0%-4.92%) among HIV uninfected patients based on the results of 27 and 19 studies respectively. Conclusion: The results of the literature review are useful in generating prior distributions of CFR in countries with vital registration systems and have contributed towards revised estimates of TB mortality This literature review did not provide us with all data needed for a valid estimation of TB CFR in TB patients initiating TB treatmen