Interpretation of Long-term Trade Projections: China's Role in Forecast Discrepancies and its Impact on Expectations for World Agricultural Trade

Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,

Regional climate change and national responsibilities

Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the 'bell curve' defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies

China's Ongoing Agricultural Modernization: Challenges Remain After 30 Years of Reform

Thirty years ago, China began implementing a series of reforms to improve efficiency in agricultural production. These, and subsequent, reforms reshaped China’s position in the world economy. China’s rapid economic development and transformation from a planned to a market-oriented economy, however, has reached a stage where further efficiency gains in agricultural production will likely hinge on the development of modern market-supporting institutions. The development of market-supporting institutions in China will bring about long-term and sustainable benefits to producers and consumers in China and the global agricultural economy. This report provides an overview of current issues in China’s agricultural development, policy responses to these issues, and the effects of these policies on China’s growing role in international markets.China, economic reform, economic development, agricultural production, agricultural trade, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics,

A dynamical theory of homogeneous nucleation for colloids and macromolecules

Homogeneous nucleation is formulated within the context of fluctuating hydrodynamics. It is shown that for a colloidal or macromolecular system in the strong damping limit the most likely path for nucleation can be determined by gradient descent in density space governed by a nontrivial metric fixed by the dynamics. The theory provides a justification and extension of more heuristic equilibrium approaches based solely on the free energy. It is illustrated by application to liquid-vapor nucleation where it is shown that, in contrast to most free energy-based studies, the smallest clusters correspond to long wavelength, small amplitude perturbations.Comment: final version; 4 pages, 2 figure

Interpretation of Long-term Trade Projections: China's Role in Forecast Discrepancies and its Impact on Expectations for World Agricultural Trade

This report looks at the impact of China's grain projections on a global commodity baseline through a discussion of the 1998 FAPRI China corn outlook

On Signatures of Atmospheric Features in Thermal Phase Curves of Hot Jupiters

Turbulence is ubiquitous in Solar System planetary atmospheres. In hot Jupiter atmospheres, the combination of moderately slow rotation and thick pressure scale height may result in dynamical weather structures with unusually large, planetary-size scales. Using equivalent-barotropic, turbulent circulation models, we illustrate how such structures can generate a variety of features in the thermal phase curves of hot Jupiters, including phase shifts and deviations from periodicity. Such features may have been spotted in the recent infrared phase curve of HD 189733b. Despite inherent difficulties with the interpretation of disk-integrated quantities, phase curves promise to offer unique constraints on the nature of the circulation regime present on hot Jupiters.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in Ap

The Absence of Adiabatic Contraction of the Radial Dark Matter Profile in the Galaxy Cluster A2589

We present an X-ray analysis of the radial mass profile of the radio-quiet galaxy cluster A2589 between 0.015-0.25 r_vir using an XMM-Newton observation. Except for a ~16 kpc shift of the X-ray center of the R=45-60 kpc annulus, A2589 possesses a remarkably symmetrical X-ray image and is therefore an exceptional candidate for precision studies of its mass profile by applying hydrostatic equilibrium. The total gravitating matter profile is well described by the NFW model (fractional residuals <~10%) with c_vir=6.1 +/- 0.3 and M_vir = 3.3 +/- 0.3 x 10^{14} M_sun (r_vir = 1.74 +/- 0.05 Mpc) in excellent agreement with LCDM. When the mass of the hot ICM is subtracted from the gravitating matter profile, the NFW model fitted to the resulting dark matter (DM) profile produces essentially the same result. However, if a component accounting for the stellar mass (M_*) of the cD galaxy is included, then the NFW fit to the DM profile is substantially degraded in the central r ~50 kpc for reasonable M_*/L_V. Modifying the NFW DM halo by adiabatic contraction arising from the early condensation of stellar baryons in the cD galaxy further degrades the fit. The fit is improved substantially with a Sersic-like model recently suggested by high resolution N-body simulations but with an inverse Sersic index, alpha ~0.5, a factor of ~3 higher than predicted. We argue that neither random turbulent motions nor magnetic fields can provide sufficient non-thermal pressure support to reconcile the XMM mass profile with adiabatic contraction of a CDM halo assuming reasonable M_*/L_V. Our results support the scenario where, at least for galaxy clusters, processes during halo formation counteract adiabatic contraction so that the total gravitating mass in the core approximately follows the NFW profile.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ. Minor changes to match published versio

Cross-correlation Weak Lensing of SDSS Galaxy Clusters III: Mass-to-light Ratios

We present measurements of the excess mass-to-light ratio measured aroundMaxBCG galaxy clusters observed in the SDSS. This red sequence cluster sample includes objects from small groups with masses ranging from ~5x10^{12} to ~10^{15} M_{sun}/h. Using cross-correlation weak lensing, we measure the excess mass density profile above the universal mean \Delta \rho(r) = \rho(r) - \bar{\rho} for clusters in bins of richness and optical luminosity. We also measure the excess luminosity density \Delta l(r) = l(r) - \bar{l} measured in the z=0.25 i-band. For both mass and light, we de-project the profiles to produce 3D mass and light profiles over scales from 25 kpc/ to 22 Mpc/h. From these profiles we calculate the cumulative excess mass M(r) and excess light L(r) as a function of separation from the BCG. On small scales, where \rho(r) >> \bar{\rho}, the integrated mass-to-light profile may be interpreted as the cluster mass-to-light ratio. We find the M/L_{200}, the mass-to-light ratio within r_{200}, scales with cluster mass as a power law with index 0.33+/-0.02. On large scales, where \rho(r) ~ \bar{\rho}, the M/L approaches an asymptotic value independent of cluster richness. For small groups, the mean M/L_{200} is much smaller than the asymptotic value, while for large clusters it is consistent with the asymptotic value. This asymptotic value should be proportional to the mean mass-to-light ratio of the universe . We find /b^2_{ml} = 362+/-54 h (statistical). There is additional uncertainty in the overall calibration at the ~10% level. The parameter b_{ml} is primarily a function of the bias of the L <~ L_* galaxies used as light tracers, and should be of order unity. Multiplying by the luminosity density in the same bandpass we find \Omega_m/b^2_{ml} = 0.02+/-0.03, independent of the Hubble parameter.Comment: Third paper in a series; v2.0 incorporates ApJ referee's suggestion