Early-nineteenth-century southern African precipitation reconstructions from ships' logbooks

Atmospheric circulation in the oceans surrounding southern Africa plays an important role in determining its precipitation. This study uses wind information recorded in ships’ logbooks in order to statistically reconstruct summer and winter season precipitation at four southern African weather stations from 1796 to 1854. The reconstruction was obtained by first relating gridded 8° × 8° NCEP-DOE reanalysis seasonal mean wind vectors in the adjacent oceans to station precipitation. Over a 30-year calibration period (1979–2008), significant correlations between wind and precipitation at Cape Town, Mthatha and Royal National Park showed particular correspondence with those areas with the greatest concentration of logbook observations. Principal component regression was used to assess the potential of the dominant patterns of variability in the wind vectors as predictors to reconstruct precipitation. Cross-validation in the calibration period gave confidence that precipitation could be reconstructed at several stations across South Africa, meaning the regression relationships derived in the calibration period could be applied to the gridded seasonal mean logbook data to produce reconstructions of precipitation from 1796 to 1854. The reconstructions show a degree of correspondence with other regional data sets. For instance, the decade beginning in 1810 was the wettest of the period at Mthatha and Royal National Park, while the 1820s were the driest. At Cape Town, the 1820s were the wettest decade, with drier conditions observed in the 1830s. An index of west–east circulation in the summer season revealed correspondence with two documentary reconstructions of El Niño events and increased westerliness, although this did not always result in drier conditions. Attention is also drawn to the remaining 3000 yet to be digitised English East India Company logbooks which would provide a high-resolution picture of atmospheric circulation back to 1700 in the region under consideration

Disasters and History

Disasters and History offers the first comprehensive historical overview of hazards and disasters. Drawing on a range of case studies, including the Black Death, the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the Fukushima disaster, the authors examine how societies dealt with shocks and hazards and their potentially disastrous outcomes. They reveal the ways in which the consequences and outcomes of these disasters varied widely not only between societies but also within the same societies according to social groups, ethnicity and gender. They also demonstrate how studying past disasters, including earthquakes, droughts, floods and epidemics, can provide a lens through which to understand the social, economic and political functioning of past societies and reveal features of a society which may otherwise remain hidden from view

Pre-colonial southeast Africa: Sources and Prospects for Research in Economic and Social History

In recent years historical research on the pre-colonial period between the Zambezi and Limpopo has almost ground to a standstill. A number of seminal works on the economic and social history of the area appeared in the 1960s and 1970s, each of which were underpinned by the documentary legacy of the Portuguese presence in the region from the beginning of the sixteenth century. Since the 1990s, it has been archaeologists that have taken up the mantle of post-1500 history, however the corpora of documentary material available is now seldom used systematically or to any great length. This article revisits the use and availability of historical documents for the study of African society in this region prior to 1840, specifically by presenting a newly constructed database of c. 1140 published and unpublished documents of relevance to African society, economy and the environment. The need for this database is first set into context by a critical overview of two of the major historiographies in pre-colonial economic and social history in this region – those of the relationships between trade and politics and drought and food production – from which a series of common problems are identified. The database is then introduced, together with an analysis of its chronological and spatial coverage and a discussion of the availability and accessibility of the documents. The paper concludes by pointing to some potential future directions for a revival of pre-colonial economic and social history in southeast Africa north of the Limpopo, to which renewed interrogation of the wider range of documentary material collated here can contribute

Documents on South-Central and Southeast Africa to 1890

Much research on the history of south-central and southeast African societies prior to the coming of colonial rule has made use of historical documents to a greater or lesser degree. These documents, written by colonial administrators, traders, missionaries, naval officers, chroniclers and travellers are generally ‘external’ narratives written for external purposes, foremost among which was the exploitation of the land and people. Although this imbues documentation with a multitude of biases, this does not preclude careful and critical use of documentary records for the study of African societies and environments. This is especially true when documents are used alongside other source types from other disciplines such as archaeology, oral history, linguistics, palaeoecology and palaeoclimatology. Many documents are housed in European archives, which poses challenges around accessibility. However, endeavours to produce source databases and develop digital archives are beginning to change this picture, providing scope for renewed scholarship on aspects of the history of Africa from the early-sixteenth century through to the end of the nineteenth century

Changing water temperatures: a surface water archive for England and Wales

The temperature of water in lakes, rivers and streams has a fundamental influence on aquatic organisms, ecological processes and the potency of many pollutants. We expect water temperature in the UK to increase under projected climate change, but rtes and spatial variation of change remain unclear for inland waters. It is also unclear how we might manage land and river flow regimes to modify river temperature where this may be desirable, for example, to protect fish from lethal temperatures. Although water temperature broadly correlates with air temperature, the drivers of surface water temperature involve dynamic heat (energy) exchanges at the water surface and river bed and complex hydrological fluxes. To date, published reports of water temperature change in British rivers have been based on a limited number of sites: these have provided useful monitoring data on the thermal processes of rivers but rather less about the thermal regime of rivers. Our understanding of river thermal spatio-temporal variability and processes remains incomplete. In part, this has been related to a lack of long-term data across a range of different environments. The Environment Agency has recently created a surface water temperature archive for England and Wales based on measurements at over 30 000 sites, with observations extending back to between <5 and 30 years. The archive is being used to assess post-1990 trends in water temperature across England and Wales. Here, we briefly describe the archive and its potential uses. We present preliminary observations of the variation in river water temperature across England and Wales and the changing relationship between water and air temperatures at and between sites. We also illustrate the potential for exploring ecological response to changes in water temperature

Climate Variability and Societal Dynamics in Pre-Colonial Southern African History (AD 900-1840): A Synthesis and Critique

The role of climate variability in pre-colonial southern African history is highly disputed. We here provide a synthesis and critique of climate-society discourses relating to two regionally-defining periods of state formation and disaggregation. The first period involves the eleventh-thirteenth century development of socio-political complexity and the rise of southern Africa's first state, Mapungubwe, followed by its collapse and the shift in regional power to Great Zimbabwe. The later period encompasses the early-nineteenth century difaqane/mfecane mass migrations, violence and ensuing state-building activity. To further our assessment, we consider the wider contentious issues of climate causation and determinism in a regional context, but dispute suggestions of paradigm shift towards simplistic environmental collapse. Nevertheless, we specifically point to ambiguities in palaeoclimate records, a narrative tendency toward monocausal explanations and a lack of integration among the literature as reasons for a sustained divergence in interpretation regarding the significance of climate. We move on to discuss the potential of integrative approaches to illuminate understanding of the complex interactions between past climate variability and human activity. In order to do so, we highlight interlinked concepts such as vulnerability and resilience as key for bridging the gap between the natural and social sciences. To conclude, we point to future climate-society priorities and ways forward in the form of research areas, data prospects and questions

Pre-colonial southeast Africa: Sources and Prospects for Research in Economic and Social History

In recent years historical research on the pre-colonial period between the Zambezi and Limpopo has almost ground to a standstill. A number of seminal works on the economic and social history of the area appeared in the 1960s and 1970s, each of which were underpinned by the documentary legacy of the Portuguese presence in the region from the beginning of the sixteenth century. Since the 1990s, it has been archaeologists that have taken up the mantle of post-1500 history, however the corpora of documentary material available is now seldom used systematically or to any great length. This article revisits the use and availability of historical documents for the study of African society in this region prior to 1840, specifically by presenting a newly constructed database of c. 1140 published and unpublished documents of relevance to African society, economy and the environment. The need for this database is first set into context by a critical overview of two of the major historiographies in pre-colonial economic and social history in this region – those of the relationships between trade and politics and drought and food production – from which a series of common problems are identified. The database is then introduced, together with an analysis of its chronological and spatial coverage and a discussion of the availability and accessibility of the documents. The paper concludes by pointing to some potential future directions for a revival of pre-colonial economic and social history in southeast Africa north of the Limpopo, to which renewed interrogation of the wider range of documentary material collated here can contribute

Disasters and History: The Vulnerability and Resilience of Past Societies

Disasters and History offers the first comprehensive historical overview of hazards and disasters. Drawing on a range of case studies, including the Black Death, the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the Fukushima disaster, the authors examine how societies dealt with shocks and hazards and their potentially disastrous outcomes. They reveal the ways in which the consequences and outcomes of these disasters varied widely not only between societies but also within the same societies according to social groups, ethnicity and gender. They also demonstrate how studying past disasters, including earthquakes, droughts, floods and epidemics, can provide a lens through which to understand the social, economic and political functioning of past societies and reveal features of a society which may otherwise remain hidden from view. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core