Predictive Heuristics for Decision-Making in Real-World Environments

Abstract. In this paper we consider the issue of endowing an AGI system with decision-making capabilities for operation in real-world environments or those of comparable complexity. While action-selection is a critical function of any AGI system operating in the real-world, very few applicable theories or methodologies exist to support such functionality, when all necessary factors are taken into account. Decision theory and standard search techniques require several debilitating simplifications, including determinism, discrete state spaces, exhaustive evaluation of all possible future actions and a coarse grained representation of time. Due to the stochastic and continuous nature of real-world environments and inherent time-constraints, direct application of decision-making methodologies from traditional decision theory and search is not a viable option. We present predictive heuristics as a way to bridge the gap between the simplifications of decision theory and search, and the complexity of real-world environments

Mössbauer spectroscopy of magnetic minerals in basalt on Earth and Mars

Mossbauer spectroscopy of iron-titanium containing spinel phases is reviewed. New techniques are presented for determination of their composition using room-temperature Mossbauer spectroscopy. An example of thermal alteration processes is described. The speciality of olivine-containing basalt is briefly discussed with regard to its magnetic properties

A randomised, blinded, trial of clopidogrel versus aspirin in patients at risk of ischaemic events (CAPRIE). CAPRIE Steering Committee

Many clinical trials have evaluated the benefit of long-term use of antiplatelet drugs in reducing the risk of clinical thrombotic events. Aspirin and ticlopidine have been shown to be effective, but both have potentially serious adverse effects. Clopidogrel, a new thienopyridine derivative similar to ticlopidine, is an inhibitor of platelet aggregation induced by adenosine diphosphate. METHODS: CAPRIE was a randomised, blinded, international trial designed to assess the relative efficacy of clopidogrel (75 mg once daily) and aspirin (325 mg once daily) in reducing the risk of a composite outcome cluster of ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death; their relative safety was also assessed. The population studied comprised subgroups of patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease manifested as either recent ischaemic stroke, recent myocardial infarction, or symptomatic peripheral arterial disease. Patients were followed for 1 to 3 years. FINDINGS: 19,185 patients, with more than 6300 in each of the clinical subgroups, were recruited over 3 years, with a mean follow-up of 1.91 years. There were 1960 first events included in the outcome cluster on which an intention-to-treat analysis showed that patients treated with clopidogrel had an annual 5.32% risk of ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death compared with 5.83% with aspirin. These rates reflect a statistically significant (p = 0.043) relative-risk reduction of 8.7% in favour of clopidogrel (95% Cl 0.3-16.5). Corresponding on-treatment analysis yielded a relative-risk reduction of 9.4%. There were no major differences in terms of safety. Reported adverse experiences in the clopidogrel and aspirin groups judged to be severe included rash (0.26% vs 0.10%), diarrhoea (0.23% vs 0.11%), upper gastrointestinal discomfort (0.97% vs 1.22%), intracranial haemorrhage (0.33% vs 0.47%), and gastrointestinal haemorrhage (0.52% vs 0.72%), respectively. There were ten (0.10%) patients in the clopidogrel group with significant reductions in neutrophils (< 1.2 x 10(9)/L) and 16 (0.17%) in the aspirin group. INTERPRETATION: Long-term administration of clopidogrel to patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease is more effective than aspirin in reducing the combined risk of ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death. The overall safety profile of clopidogrel is at least as good as that of medium-dose aspirin