Solar parameters for modeling interplanetary background

The goal of the Fully Online Datacenter of Ultraviolet Emissions (FONDUE) Working Team of the International Space Science Institute in Bern, Switzerland, was to establish a common calibration of various UV and EUV heliospheric observations, both spectroscopic and photometric. Realization of this goal required an up-to-date model of spatial distribution of neutral interstellar hydrogen in the heliosphere, and to that end, a credible model of the radiation pressure and ionization processes was needed. This chapter describes the solar factors shaping the distribution of neutral interstellar H in the heliosphere. Presented are the solar Lyman-alpha flux and the solar Lyman-alpha resonant radiation pressure force acting on neutral H atoms in the heliosphere, solar EUV radiation and the photoionization of heliospheric hydrogen, and their evolution in time and the still hypothetical variation with heliolatitude. Further, solar wind and its evolution with solar activity is presented in the context of the charge exchange ionization of heliospheric hydrogen, and in the context of dynamic pressure variations. Also the electron ionization and its variation with time, heliolatitude, and solar distance is presented. After a review of all of those topics, we present an interim model of solar wind and the other solar factors based on up-to-date in situ and remote sensing observations of solar wind. Results of this effort will further be utilised to improve on the model of solar wind evolution, which will be an invaluable asset in all heliospheric measurements, including, among others, the observations of Energetic Neutral Atoms by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX).Comment: Chapter 2 in the planned "Cross-Calibration of Past and Present Far UV Spectra of Solar System Objects and the Heliosphere", ISSI Scientific Report No 12, ed. R.M. Bonnet, E. Quemerais, M. Snow, Springe

Solar Weather Event Modelling and Prediction

Key drivers of solar weather and mid-term solar weather are reviewed by considering a selection of relevant physics- and statistics-based scientific models as well as aselection of related prediction models, in order to provide an updated operational scenario for space weather applications. The characteristics and outcomes of the considered scientific and prediction models indicate that they only partially cope with the complex nature of solar activity for the lack of a detailed knowledge of the underlying physics. This is indicated by the fact that, on one hand, scientific models based on chaos theory and non-linear dynamics reproduce better the observed features, and, on the other hand, that prediction models based on statistics and artificial neural networks perform better. To date, the solar weather prediction success at most time and spatial scales is far from being satisfactory, but the forthcoming ground- and space-based high-resolution observations can add fundamental tiles to the modelling and predicting frameworks as well as the application of advanced mathematical approaches in the analysis of diachronic solar observations, that are a must to provide comprehensive and homogeneous data sets.peerReviewe