Solar Grand Minima and random fluctuations in dynamo parameters

We consider to what extent the long-term dynamics of cyclic solar activity in the form of Grand Minima can be associated with random fluctuations of the parameters governing the solar dynamo. We consider fluctuations of the alpha-coefficient in the conventional Parker migratory dynamo, and also in slightly more sophisticated dynamo models, and demonstrate that they can mimic the gross features of the phenomenon of the occurrence of Grand Minima over a suitable parameter range. The temporal distribution of these Grand Minima appears chaotic, with a more or less exponential waiting time distribution, typical of Poisson processes. In contrast however, the available reconstruction of Grand Minima statistics based on cosmogenic isotope data demonstrates substantial deviations from this exponential law. We were unable to reproduce the non-Poissonic tail of the waiting time distribution either in the framework of a simple alpha-quenched Parker model, or in its straightforward generalization, nor in simple models with feedback on the differential rotation. We suggest that the disagreement may only be apparent and is plausibly related to the limited observational data, and that the observations and results of numerical modeling can be consistent and represent physically similar dynamo regimes.Comment: Solar Physics, in prin

Bottom trawl fishing footprints on the world’s continental shelves

Bottom trawlers land around 19 million tons of fish and invertebrates annually, almost one-quarter of wild marine landings. The extent of bottom trawling footprint (seabed area trawled at least once in a specified region and time period) is often contested but poorly described. We quantify footprints using high-resolution satellite vessel monitoring system (VMS) and logbook data on 24 continental shelves and slopes to 1,000-m depth over at least 2 years. Trawling footprint varied markedly among regions: from 50% in some European seas. Overall, 14% of the 7.8 million-km2 study area was trawled, and 86% was not trawled. Trawling activity was aggregated; the most intensively trawled areas accounting for 90% of activity comprised 77% of footprint on average. Regional swept area ratio (SAR; ratio of total swept area trawled annually to total area of region, a metric of trawling intensity) and footprint area were related, providing an approach to estimate regional trawling footprints when high-resolution spatial data are unavailable. If SAR was ≤0.1, as in 8 of 24 regions, there was >95% probability that >90% of seabed was not trawled. If SAR was 7.9, equal to the highest SAR recorded, there was >95% probability that >70% of seabed was trawled. Footprints were smaller and SAR was ≤0.25 in regions where fishing rates consistently met international sustainability benchmarks for fish stocks, implying collateral environmental benefits from sustainable fishing

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Effect of immunisation against angiotensin II with CYT006-AngQb on ambulatory blood pressure: a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled phase IIa study.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension can be controlled adequately with existing drugs such as angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers. Nevertheless, treatment success is often restricted by patients not adhering to treatment. Immunisation against angiotensin II could solve this problem. We investigated the safety and efficacy of CYT006-AngQb-a vaccine based on a virus-like particle-that targets angiotensin II to reduce ambulatory blood pressure. METHODS: In this multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled phase IIa trial, 72 patients with mild-to-moderate hypertension were randomly assigned with a computer-generated randomisation list to receive subcutaneous injections of either 100 mug CYT006-AngQb (n=24), 300 mug CYT006-AngQb (24), or placebo (24), at weeks 0, 4, and 12. 24-h ambulatory blood pressure was measured before treatment and at week 14. The primary outcomes were safety and tolerability. Analyses were done by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00500786. FINDINGS: Two patients in the 100 mug group, three in the 300 mug group, and none in the placebo group discontinued study treatment. All patients were included in safety analyses; efficacy analyses did not include the five dropouts, for whom no data were available at week 14. Five serious adverse events were reported (two in the 100 mug group, two in the 300 mug group, and one in the placebo group); none were deemed to be treatment related. Most side-effects were mild, transient reactions at the injection site. Mild, transient influenza-like symptoms were seen in three patients in the 100 mug group, seven in the 300 mug group, and none in the placebo group. In the 300 mug group, there was a reduction from baseline in mean ambulatory daytime blood pressure at week 14 by -9.0/-4.0 mm Hg compared with placebo (p=0.015 for systolic and 0.064 for diastolic). The 300 mug dose reduced the early morning blood-pressure surge compared with placebo (change at 0800 h -25/-13 mm Hg; p<0.0001 for systolic, p=0.0035 for diastolic). INTERPRETATION: Immunisation with CYT006-AngQb was associated with no serious adverse events; most observed adverse events were consistent with local or systemic responses similar to those seen with other vaccines. The 300 mug dose reduced blood pressure in patients with mild-to-moderate hypertension during the daytime, especially in the early morning. FUNDING: Cytos Biotechnology AG

Final adult height and body mass index after cure of paediatric Cushing's disease

OBJECTIVE: Linear growth data after cure of paediatric Cushing's disease (CD) have been reported infrequently. We evaluated final adult height (FH) and body mass index (BMI) in a cohort of paediatric patients treated successfully for CD. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fourteen patients (10 male, age range 6.4-16.6 years) fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for CD. All had had transsphenoidal surgery (TSS), combined with pituitary irradiation (RT) (45 Gy in 25 fractions) in six. All were cured (post-TSS cortisol < 50 nmol/l or mean cortisol post-RT < 150 nmol/l). Subjects analysed had bone ages at diagnosis of < 15 'years' (male) and < 13 'years' (female). RESULTS: At diagnosis, height SDS was [mean (range)]-2.5 (-4.2 to -0.8) and body mass index (BMI) SDS +2.7 (0.8-5.1). Following cure, 13 patients had GH deficiency (peak GH < 20 mU/l) and were treated with hGH (+ GnRH analogue in four). Height SDS at FH (n = 10) or latest assessment (n = 4) was -1.3 (-3.9-0.2) and increased compared to diagnosis (P < 0.01). The difference between final or latest height SDS and target height SDS was -1.2 (-3.3-0.5), that is less (P < 0.01) than the difference between the height SDS at diagnosis and target height SDS of -2.4 (-3.9 to -0.5). At final height or latest assessment, BMI SDS was +1.7 (0.4-6.2), being decreased compared to diagnosis (P < 0.05) but greater than the normal population (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Catch-up growth was demonstrated in paediatric patients cured from CD, with the majority achieving FH within target height range. Early diagnosis and treatment of GH deficiency is recommended to achieve optimal long-term growth. Excess adiposity remains a potential long-term complication