Thinking about growth : a cognitive mapping approach to understanding small business development

School of Managemen

El Niño Southern Oscillation signal in a new East Antarctic ice core, Mount Brown South

Abstract. Paleoclimate archives, such as high-resolution ice core records, provide a means to investigate long-term (multi-centennial) climate variability. Until recently, the Law Dome (Dome Summit South) ice core record remained one of few long-term high-resolution records in East Antarctica. A new ice core drilled in 2017/2018 at Mount Brown South, approximately 1000 km west of Law Dome, provides an additional high-resolution record that will likely span the last millennium in the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica. Here, we compare snowfall accumulation rates and sea salt concentrations in the upper portion (~21 m) of the Mount Brown South record, and an updated Law Dome record over the period 1975–2016. Annual sea salt concentrations from the Mount Brown South record preserves a stronger signal for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; in austral winter and spring, r = 0.521, p r = −0.387, p = 0.018, Niño 3.4). The Mount Brown South and Law Dome ice cores record inverse signals for the ENSO, suggesting the occurrence of distinct moisture and aerosol intrusions. We suggest that ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific drive atmospheric teleconnections in the southern mid-latitudes. These anomalies are associated with a weakening (strengthening) of regional westerly winds to the north of Mount Brown South that corresponds to years of low (high) sea salt deposition at Mount Brown South during La Niña (El Niño) events. The Mount Brown South annual sea salt record when complete will offer a new proxy record for reconstructions of the ENSO over the recent millennium, along with improved understanding of regional atmospheric variability in the southern Indian Ocean in addition to that derived from Law Dome

The 2009 december gamma-ray flare of 3C 454.3: The multifrequency campaign

During the month of 2009 December, the blazar 3C 454.3 became the brightest gamma-ray source in the sky, reaching a peak flux F 2000 × 10 -8 photons cm-2 s-1 for E > 100 MeV. Starting in 2009 November intensive multifrequency campaigns monitored the 3C 454 gamma-ray outburst. Here, we report on the results of a two-month campaign involving AGILE, INTEGRAL, Swift/XRT, Swift/BAT, and Rossi XTE for the high-energy observations and Swift/UVOT, KANATA, Goddard Robotic Telescope, and REM for the near-IR/optical/UV data. GASP/WEBT provided radio and additional optical data. We detected a long-term active emission phase lasting 1 month at all wavelengths: in the gamma-ray band, peak emission was reached on 2009 December 2-3. Remarkably, this gamma-ray super-flare was not accompanied by correspondingly intense emission in the optical/UV band that reached a level substantially lower than the previous observations in 2007-2008. The lack of strong simultaneous optical brightening during the super-flare and the determination of the broadband spectral evolution severely constrain the theoretical modeling. We find that the pre- and post-flare broadband behavior can be explained by a one-zone model involving synchrotron self-Compton plus external Compton emission from an accretion disk and a broad-line region. However, the spectra of the 2009 December 2-3 super-flare and of the secondary peak emission on 2009 December 9 cannot be satisfactorily modeled by a simple one-zone model. An additional particle component is most likely active during these states. © 2010. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved

Data descriptor: a global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high-and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python. (TABLE) Since the pioneering work of D'Arrigo and Jacoby1-3, as well as Mann et al. 4,5, temperature reconstructions of the Common Era have become a key component of climate assessments6-9. Such reconstructions depend strongly on the composition of the underlying network of climate proxies10, and it is therefore critical for the climate community to have access to a community-vetted, quality-controlled database of temperature-sensitive records stored in a self-describing format. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) 2k consortium, a self-organized, international group of experts, recently assembled such a database, and used it to reconstruct surface temperature over continental-scale regions11 (hereafter, ` PAGES2k-2013'). This data descriptor presents version 2.0.0 of the PAGES2k proxy temperature database (Data Citation 1). It augments the PAGES2k-2013 collection of terrestrial records with marine records assembled by the Ocean2k working group at centennial12 and annual13 time scales. In addition to these previously published data compilations, this version includes substantially more records, extensive new metadata, and validation. Furthermore, the selection criteria for records included in this version are applied more uniformly and transparently across regions, resulting in a more cohesive data product. This data descriptor describes the contents of the database, the criteria for inclusion, and quantifies the relation of each record with instrumental temperature. In addition, the paleotemperature time series are summarized as composites to highlight the most salient decadal-to centennial-scale behaviour of the dataset and check mutual consistency between paleoclimate archives. We provide extensive Matlab code to probe the database-processing, filtering and aggregating it in various ways to investigate temperature variability over the Common Era. The unique approach to data stewardship and code-sharing employed here is designed to enable an unprecedented scale of investigation of the temperature history of the Common Era, by the scientific community and citizen-scientists alike

Comparing Presenting Clinical Features in 48 Children With Microscopic Polyangiitis to 183 Children Who Have Granulomatosis With Polyangiitis (Wegener's) : an ARChiVe Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: To uniquely classify children with microscopic polyangiitis (MPA), to describe their demographic characteristics, presenting clinical features, and initial treatments in comparison to patients with granulomatosis with polyangiitis (Wegener's) (GPA). METHODS: The European Medicines Agency (EMA) classification algorithm was applied by computation to categorical data from patients recruited to the ARChiVe (A Registry for Childhood Vasculitis: e-entry) cohort, with the data censored to November 2015. The EMA algorithm was used to uniquely distinguish children with MPA from children with GPA, whose diagnoses had been classified according to both adult- and pediatric-specific criteria. Descriptive statistics were used for comparisons. RESULTS: In total, 231 of 440 patients (64% female) fulfilled the classification criteria for either MPA (n\u2009=\u200948) or GPA (n\u2009=\u2009183). The median time to diagnosis was 1.6 months in the MPA group and 2.1 months in the GPA group (ranging to 39 and 73 months, respectively). Patients with MPA were significantly younger than those with GPA (median age 11 years versus 14 years). Constitutional features were equally common between the groups. In patients with MPA compared to those with GPA, pulmonary manifestations were less frequent (44% versus 74%) and less severe (primarily, hemorrhage, requirement for supplemental oxygen, and pulmonary failure). Renal pathologic features were frequently found in both groups (75% of patients with MPA versus 83% of patients with GPA) but tended toward greater severity in those with MPA (primarily, nephrotic-range proteinuria, requirement for dialysis, and end-stage renal disease). Airway/eye involvement was absent among patients with MPA, because these GPA-defining features preclude a diagnosis of MPA within the EMA algorithm. Similar proportions of patients with MPA and those with GPA received combination therapy with corticosteroids plus cyclophosphamide (69% and 78%, respectively) or both drugs in combination with plasmapheresis (19% and 22%, respectively). Other treatments administered, ranging in decreasing frequency from 13% to 3%, were rituximab, methotrexate, azathioprine, and mycophenolate mofetil. CONCLUSION: Younger age at disease onset and, perhaps, both gastrointestinal manifestations and more severe kidney disease seem to characterize the clinical profile in children with MPA compared to those with GPA. Delay in diagnosis suggests that recognition of these systemic vasculitides is suboptimal. Compared with adults, initial treatment regimens in children were comparable, but the complete reversal of female-to-male disease prevalence ratios is a provocative finding

Combination of searches for heavy spin-1 resonances using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combination of searches for new heavy spin-1 resonances decaying into diferent pairings of W, Z, or Higgs bosons, as well as directly into leptons or quarks, is presented. The data sample used corresponds to 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV collected during 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Analyses selecting quark pairs (qq, bb, tt¯, and tb) or third-generation leptons (τν and τ τ ) are included in this kind of combination for the frst time. A simplifed model predicting a spin-1 heavy vector-boson triplet is used. Cross-section limits are set at the 95% confdence level and are compared with predictions for the benchmark model. These limits are also expressed in terms of constraints on couplings of the heavy vector-boson triplet to quarks, leptons, and the Higgs boson. The complementarity of the various analyses increases the sensitivity to new physics, and the resulting constraints are stronger than those from any individual analysis considered. The data exclude a heavy vector-boson triplet with mass below 5.8 TeV in a weakly coupled scenario, below 4.4 TeV in a strongly coupled scenario, and up to 1.5 TeV in the case of production via vector-boson fusion

Searches for exclusive Higgs boson decays into D⁎γ and Z boson decays into D0γ and Ks0γ in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Searches for exclusive decays of the Higgs boson into D⁎γ and of the Z boson into D0γ and Ks0γ can probe flavour-violating Higgs boson and Z boson couplings to light quarks. Searches for these decays are performed with a pp collision data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 136.3 fb−1 collected at s=13TeV between 2016–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. In the D⁎γ and D0γ channels, the observed (expected) 95% confidence-level upper limits on the respective branching fractions are B(H→D⁎γ)<1.0(1.2)×10−3, B(Z→D0γ)<4.0(3.4)×10−6, while the corresponding results in the Ks0γ channel are B(Z→Ks0γ)<3.1(3.0)×10−6

Measurement of vector boson production cross sections and their ratios using pp collisions at √s = 13.6 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Abstract available from publisher's website

Beam-induced backgrounds measured in the ATLAS detector during local gas injection into the LHC beam vacuum

Inelastic beam-gas collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), within a few hundred metres of the ATLAS experiment, are known to give the dominant contribution to beam backgrounds. These are monitored by ATLAS with a dedicated Beam Conditions Monitor (BCM) and with the rate of fake jets in the calorimeters. These two methods are complementary since the BCM probes backgrounds just around the beam pipe while fake jets are observed at radii of up to several metres. In order to quantify the correlation between the residual gas density in the LHC beam vacuum and the experimental backgrounds recorded by ATLAS, several dedicated tests were performed during LHC Run 2. Local pressure bumps, with a gas density several orders of magnitude higher than during normal operation, were introduced at different locations. The changes of beam-related backgrounds, seen in ATLAS, are correlated with the local pressure variation. In addition the rates of beam-gas events are estimated from the pressure measurements and pressure bump profiles obtained from calculations. Using these rates, the efficiency of the ATLAS beam background monitors to detect beam-gas events is derived as a function of distance from the interaction point. These efficiencies and characteristic distributions of fake jets from the beam backgrounds are found to be in good agreement with results of beam-gas simulations performed with theFluka Monte Carlo programme