Trial factors for the look elsewhere effect in high energy physics

When searching for a new resonance somewhere in a possible mass range, the significance of observing a local excess of events must take into account the probability of observing such an excess anywhere in the range. This is the so called "look elsewhere effect". The effect can be quantified in terms of a trial factor, which is the ratio between the probability of observing the excess at some fixed mass point, to the probability of observing it anywhere in the range. We propose a simple and fast procedure for estimating the trial factor, based on earlier results by Davies. We show that asymptotically, the trial factor grows linearly with the (fixed mass) significance

Simulations of the neutral structure within the dusk side aurora

Observations of neutral winds from rocket release experiments within the premidnight and postmidnight substorm recovery phase aurora, show very large E-region neutral winds of several hundred m/s, where winds measured on the dusk side are even larger than those on the dawn side. These large winds are also associated with strong shears, and there is evidence that some of the regions below these shears may be unstable. The mechanisms which generate this strong vertical structure are not well understood. It is also not known whether the acceleration conditions in the pre and post midnight sectors of the aurora may produce significantly different neutral responses on the dawn and dusk sides. Simulations have been performed using a three-dimensional high resolution limited area thermosphere model to try to understand the neutral structure within the dawn and dusk side aurora. When simulations are performed using auroral forcing alone, for equivalent conditions within the dawn and dusk sectors, differences are found in the simulated response on each side. When measured values of auroral forcing parameters, and background winds and tides consistent with recent observations, are used as model inputs, some of the main features of the zonal and meridional wind observations are reproduced in the simulations, but the magnitude of the peak zonal wind around 140 km tends to be too small and the maximum meridional wind around 130 km is overestimated. The winds above 120 km altitude are found to be sensitive to changes in electric fields and ion densities, as was the case for the dawn side, but the effects of background winds and tides on the magnitudes of the winds above 120 km are found to be relatively small on the dusk side. The structure below 120 km appears to be related mainly to background winds and tides rather than auroral forcing, as was found in earlier studies on the dawn side, although the peak magnitudes of simulated wind variations in the 100 to 120 km altitude range are smaller than those observed. The source of the strong shears measured around 110 km altitude on the dusk side is uncertain, but may be related to different kinds of oscillations, such as gravity waves, non migrating semidiurnal tides, or secondary oscillations produced by non linear interactions between waves

Wong-Zakai approximation of solutions to reflecting stochastic differential equations on domains in Euclidean spaces II

The strong convergence of Wong-Zakai approximations of the solution to the reflecting stochastic differential equations was studied in [2]. We continue the study and prove the strong convergence under weaker assumptions on the domain.Comment: To appear in "Stochastic Analysis and Applications 2014-In Honour of Terry Lyons", Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistic

Upgrades of beam diagnostics in support of emittance-exchange experiments at the Fermilab A0 photoinjector

The possibility of using electron beam phase space manipulations to support a free-electron laser accelerator design optimization has motivated our research. An on-going program demonstrating the exchange of transverse horizontal and longitudinal emittances at the Fermilab A0 photoinjector has benefited recently from the upgrade of several of the key diagnostics stations. Accurate measurements of these properties upstream and downstream of the exchanger beamline are needed. Improvements in the screen resolution term and reduced impact of the optical system's depth-of-focus by using YAG:Ce single crystals normal to the beam direction will be described. The requirement to measure small energy spreads (<10 keV) in the spectrometer and the exchange process which resulted in bunch lengths less than 500 fs led to other diagnostics performance adjustments and upgrades as well. A longitudinal to transverse exchange example is also reported.Comment: 16 p

The Tabby cat locus maps to feline chromosome B1.

The Tabby markings of the domestic cat are unique coat patterns for which no causative candidate gene has been inferred from other mammals. In this study, a genome scan was performed on a large pedigree of cats that segregated for Tabby coat markings, specifically for the Abyssinian (Ta-) and blotched (tbtb) phenotypes. There was linkage between the Tabby locus and eight markers on cat chromosome B1. The most significant linkage was between marker FCA700 and Tabby (Z = 7.56, theta = 0.03). Two additional markers in the region supported linkage, although not with significant LOD scores. Pairwise analysis of the markers supported the published genetic map of the cat, although additional meioses are required to refine the region. The linked markers cover a 17-cM region and flank an evolutionary breakpoint, suggesting that the Tabby gene has a homologue on either human chromosome 4 or 8. Alternatively, Tabby could be a unique locus in cats

Phase diagram of self-assembled rigid rods on two-dimensional lattices: Theory and Monte Carlo simulations

Monte Carlo simulations and finite-size scaling analysis have been carried out to study the critical behavior in a two-dimensional system of particles with two bonding sites that, by decreasing temperature or increasing density, polymerize reversibly into chains with discrete orientational degrees of freedom and, at the same time, undergo a continuous isotropic-nematic (IN) transition. A complete phase diagram was obtained as a function of temperature and density. The numerical results were compared with mean field (MF) and real space renormalization group (RSRG) analytical predictions about the IN transformation. While the RSRG approach supports the continuous nature of the transition, the MF solution predicts a first-order transition line and a tricritical point, at variance with the simulation results.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, supplementary informatio

L\'evy-areas of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes in Hilbert-spaces

In this paper we investigate the existence and some useful properties of the L\'evy areas of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes associated to Hilbert-space-valued fractional Brownian-motions with Hurst parameter $H\in (1/3,1/2]$. We prove that this stochastic area has a H\"older-continuous version with sufficiently large H\"older-exponent and that can be approximated by smooth areas. In addition, we prove the stationarity of this area.Comment: 18 page

Behavior Change Techniques Implemented in Electronic Lifestyle Activity Monitors: A Systematic Content Analysis

Background: Electronic activity monitors (such as those manufactured by Fitbit, Jawbone, and Nike) improve on standard pedometers by providing automated feedback and interactive behavior change tools via mobile device or personal computer. These monitors are commercially popular and show promise for use in public health interventions. However, little is known about the content of their feedback applications and how individual monitors may differ from one another. Objective: The purpose of this study was to describe the behavior change techniques implemented in commercially available electronic activity monitors. Methods: Electronic activity monitors (N=13) were systematically identified and tested by 3 trained coders for at least 1 week each. All monitors measured lifestyle physical activity and provided feedback via an app (computer or mobile). Coding was based on a hierarchical list of 93 behavior change techniques. Further coding of potentially effective techniques and adherence to theory-based recommendations were based on findings from meta-analyses and meta-regressions in the research literature. Results: All monitors provided tools for self-monitoring, feedback, and environmental change by definition. The next most prevalent techniques (13 out of 13 monitors) were goal-setting and emphasizing discrepancy between current and goal behavior. Review of behavioral goals, social support, social comparison, prompts/cues, rewards, and a focus on past success were found in more than half of the systems. The monitors included a range of 5-10 of 14 total techniques identified from the research literature as potentially effective. Most of the monitors included goal-setting, self-monitoring, and feedback content that closely matched recommendations from social cognitive theory. Conclusions: Electronic activity monitors contain a wide range of behavior change techniques typically used in clinical behavioral interventions. Thus, the monitors may represent a medium by which these interventions could be translated for widespread use. This technology has broad applications for use in clinical, public health, and rehabilitation settings

The Origin of Time Asymmetry

It is argued that the observed Thermodynamic Arrow of Time must arise from the boundary conditions of the universe. We analyse the consequences of the no boundary proposal, the only reasonably complete set of boundary conditions that has been put forward. We study perturbations of a Friedmann model containing a massive scalar field but our results should be independent of the details of the matter content. We find that gravitational wave perturbations have an amplitude that remains in the linear regime at all times and is roughly time symmetric about the time of maximum expansion. Thus gravitational wave perturbations do not give rise to an Arrow of Time. However density perturbations behave very differently. They are small at one end of the universe's history, but grow larger and become non linear as the universe gets larger. Contrary to an earlier claim, the density perturbations do not get small again at the other end of the universe's history. They therefore give rise to a Thermodynamic Arrow of Time that points in a constant direction while the universe expands and contracts again. The Arrow of Time does not reverse at the point of maximum expansion. One has to appeal to the Weak Anthropic Principle to explain why we observe the Thermodynamic Arrow to agree with the Cosmological Arrow, the direction of time in which the universe is expanding.Comment: 41 pages, DAMTP R92/2