Hubble flow variance and the cosmic rest frame

We characterize the radial and angular variance of the Hubble flow in the COMPOSITE sample of 4534 galaxies, on scales in which much of the flow is in the nonlinear regime. With no cosmological assumptions other than the existence of a suitably averaged linear Hubble law, we find with decisive Bayesian evidence (ln B >> 5) that the Hubble constant averaged in independent spherical radial shells is closer to its asymptotic value when referred to the rest frame of the Local Group, rather than the standard rest frame of the Cosmic Microwave Background. An exception occurs for radial shells in the range 40/h-60/h Mpc. Angular averages reveal a dipole structure in the Hubble flow, whose amplitude changes markedly over the range 32/h-62/h Mpc. Whereas the LG frame dipole is initially constant and then decreases significantly, the CMB frame dipole initially decreases but then increases. The map of angular Hubble flow variation in the LG rest frame is found to coincide with that of the residual CMB temperature dipole, with correlation coefficient -0.92. These results are difficult to reconcile with the standard kinematic interpretation of the motion of the Local Group in response to the clustering dipole, but are consistent with a foreground non-kinematic anisotropy in the distance-redshift relation of 0.5% on scales up to 65/h Mpc. Effectively, the differential expansion of space produced by nearby nonlinear structures of local voids and denser walls and filaments cannot be reduced to a local boost. This hypothesis suggests a reinterpretation of bulk flows, which may potentially impact on calibration of supernovae distances, anomalies associated with large angles in the CMB anisotropy spectrum, and the dark flow inferred from the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect. It is consistent with recent studies that find evidence for a non-kinematic dipole in the distribution of distant radio sources.Comment: 37 pages, 9 tables, 13 figures; v2 adds extensive new analysis (including additional subsections, tables, figures); v3 adds a Monte Carlo analysis (with additional table, figure) which further tightens the statistical robustness of the dipole results; v4 adds further clarifications, small corrections, references and discussion of Planck satellite results; v5 typos fixed, matches published versio

Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine formulation and risk of childhood leukaemia

Incidence of childhood leukaemia was studied among subjects of a vaccine trial in Finland comparing the polysaccharide–diptheria toxoid conjugate and oligosaccharide–CRM197 conjugate Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine formulations. Eighty cases of childhood leukaemia were detected: 35 among children on the polysaccharide–diptheria toxoid conjugate arm, and 45 among children on the oligosaccharide–CRM197 conjugate arm, which was not statistically significant

Is the incidence of meningiomas underestimated? A regional survey

We assessed the undercount of meningiomas in a population-based cancer registry. A comprehensive material was formed by compiling hospital sources with the Finnish Cancer Registry database. The completeness of each source ranged 62–69%. The corrected age-standardised meningioma incidence was 2.9/100 000 for men and 13.0/100 000 for women, a third higher than the cancer registry figures

Dark energy as a mirage

Motivated by the observed cosmic matter distribution, we present the following conjecture: due to the formation of voids and opaque structures, the average matter density on the path of the light from the well-observed objects changes from Omega_M ~ 1 in the homogeneous early universe to Omega_M ~ 0 in the clumpy late universe, so that the average expansion rate increases along our line of sight from EdS expansion Ht ~ 2/3 at high redshifts to free expansion Ht ~ 1 at low redshifts. To calculate the modified observable distance-redshift relations, we introduce a generalized Dyer-Roeder method that allows for two crucial physical properties of the universe: inhomogeneities in the expansion rate and the growth of the nonlinear structures. By treating the transition redshift to the void-dominated era as a free parameter, we find a phenomenological fit to the observations from the CMB anisotropy, the position of the baryon oscillation peak, the magnitude-redshift relations of type Ia supernovae, the local Hubble flow and the nucleosynthesis, resulting in a concordant model of the universe with 90% dark matter, 10% baryons, no dark energy, 15 Gyr as the age of the universe and a natural value for the transition redshift z_0=0.35. Unlike a large local void, the model respects the cosmological principle, further offering an explanation for the late onset of the perceived acceleration as a consequence of the forming nonlinear structures. Additional tests, such as quantitative predictions for angular deviations due to an anisotropic void distribution and a theoretical derivation of the model, can vindicate or falsify the interpretation that light propagation in voids is responsible for the perceived acceleration.Comment: 33 pages, 2 figs; v2: minor clarifications, results unchanged; v3: matches the version published in General Relativity and Gravitatio

Multiple primary tumours: incidence estimation in the presence of competing risks

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Estimating the risk of developing subsequent primary tumours in a population is difficult since the occurrence probability is conditioned to the survival probability.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We proposed to apply Markov models studying the transition intensities from first to second tumour with the Aalen-Johansen (AJ) estimators, as usually done in competing risk models. In a simulation study we applied the proposed method in different settings with constant or varying underlying intensities and applying age standardisation. In addition, we illustrated the method with data on breast cancer from the Piedmont Cancer Registry.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The simulation study showed that the person-years approach led to a sensibly wider bias than the AJ estimators. The largest bias was observed assuming constantly increasing incidence rates. However, this situation is rather uncommon dealing with subsequent tumours incidence. In 9233 cases with breast cancer occurred in women resident in Turin, Italy, between 1985 and 1998 we observed a significant increased risk of 1.91 for subsequent cancer of corpus uteri, estimated with the age-standardised Aalen-Johansen incidence ratio (AJ-IR^stand), and a significant increased risk of 1.29 for cancer possibly related to the radiotherapy of breast cancer. The peak of occurrence of those cancers was observed after 8 years of follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The increased risk of a cancer of the corpus uteri, also observed in other studies, is usually interpreted as the common shared risk factors such as low parity, early menarche and late onset of menopause. We also grouped together those cancers possibly associated to a previous local radiotherapy: the cumulative risk at 14 years is still not significant, however the AJ estimators showed a significant risk peak between the eighth and the ninth year. Finally, the proposed approach has been shown to be reliable and informative under several aspects. It allowed for a correct estimation of the risk, and for investigating the time trend of the subsequent cancer occurrence.</p

The effect of inhomogeneous expansion on the supernova observations

We consider an inhomogeneous but spherically symmetric Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi model to demonstrate that spatial variations of the expansion rate can have a significant effect on the cosmological supernova observations. A model with no dark energy but a local Hubble parameter about 15% larger than its global value fits the supernova data better than the homogeneous model with the cosmological constant. The goodness of the fit is not sensitive to inhomogeneities in the present-day matter density, and our best fit model has Omega_M ~ 0.3, in agreement with galaxy surveys. We also compute the averaged expansion rate, defined by the Buchert equations, of the best fit model and show explicitly that there is no average acceleration.Comment: minor corrections to match the version published in JCA

Faktori rizika od karcinoma larinksa u Crnoj Gori

Laryngeal cancer is the most common head and neck cancer. There might be many risk factors for laryngeal cancer. Smoking, especially cigarette smoking and alcohol are indisputable risk factors. The authors of this paper assessed the presumed risk factors in order to identify possible aetiological agents of the disease. A hospital-based case-control study was conducted. The study group consisted of 108 histologically verified laryngeal cancer patients and 108 hospital controls matched by sex, age (±3 years) and place of residence. Laryngeal cancer patients and controls were interviewed during their hospital stay using a structured questionnaire. According to multiple logistic regression analysis six variables were independently related to laryngeal cancer: hard liquor consumption (Odd Ratio /OR/=2.93, Confidence Interval /CI/ 95 % = 1.17 to 7.31), consumption more than 2 alcoholic drinks per day (OR=4.96, CI 95 % = 2.04 to12.04), cigarette smoking for more than 40 years (OR=4.32, CI 95 % = 1.69 to 11.06), smoking more than 30 cigarettes per day (OR=4.24, CI 95 % = 1.75 to 10.27), coffee consumption more than 5 cups per day (OR=4.52, CI 95 % = 1.01 to 20.12) and carbonated beverage consumption (OR=0.38, CI 95 %= 0.16 to 0.92). The great majority of laryngeal cancers could be prevented by eliminating tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption.Maligni tumori larinksa najčešći su tumori glave i vrata. Glavni faktori rizika od razvoja malignih tumora grkljana su pušenje i konzumiranje alkoholnih pića. Cilj rada bio je ispitivanje potencijalnih faktora rizika od nastanka malignih tumora larinksa. Sprovedena je studija slučaj-kontrola. Studijsku grupu činilo je 108 pacijenata s histološki verificiranim rakom larinksa i 108 kontrola individualno izjednačenih po spolu, dobi (± 3 godine) i mjestu stanovanja. Svi ispitanici su anketirani ciljanim epidemiološkim upitnikom a u analizi podataka korištena je multivarijantna logistička regresijska analiza. Koristeći se multivarijantnom logističkom regresijskom analizom, statistički značajnu povezanost s rakom larinksa dobili smo za sljedeće varijable: konzumiranje žestokih pića (omjer izgleda /OR/=2.93, interval pouzdanosti /CI/ 95 % = 1.17 do 7.31), konzumiranje više od 2 alkoholna pića na dan (OR = 4.96, CI 95 % = 2.04 do 12.04), konzumiranje cigareta duže od 40 godina (OR = 4.32, CI 95 % = 1.69 do 11.06), konzumiranje više od 30 cigareta na dan (OR = 4.24, CI 95 % = 1.75 do 10.27), konzumiranje više od 5 šalica kave na dan (OR = 4.52, CI 95 % = 1.01 do 20.12) i konzumiranje gaziranih pića (OR = 0.38, CI 95 % = 0.16 do 0.92). Obolijevanje zbog malignih tumora larinksa moglo bi se značajno smanjiti prestankom konzumiranja duhana i alkohola

The stability of life satisfaction in a 15-year follow-up of adult Finns healthy at baseline

BACKGROUND: While physical health has improved considerably over recent decades in Finland, the disease burden of mental health, especially that of depression, has become increasingly demanding. However, we lack long-term data on the natural course of subjective well-being in the general population. The aim of this study was to investigate the long-term course of self-reported life satisfaction. METHODS: This was a 15-year prospective cohort study on a nationwide sample of adult Finnish twins (N = 9679), aged 18–45 and healthy at baseline, who responded to postal questionnaires in 1975, 1981 and 1990 including a 4-item life satisfaction scale (happiness/easiness/interest in life and feelings of loneliness). Life satisfaction score (range: 4–20) was classified into three categories: satisfied (4–6), intermediate (7–11) and dissatisfied group (12–20). The associations between life satisfaction scores during the follow-up were studied with linear/logistic regression. RESULTS: Moderate stability and only a slight effect of age or birth-cohort on mean life satisfaction score (LS) were detected. In 1990, 56% of all and 31% of the dissatisfied remained in the same LS category as at baseline. Only 5.9% of the study subjects changed from being satisfied to dissatisfied or vice versa. Correlations between continuous scores (1975, 1981 and 1990) were 0.3–0.4. Baseline dissatisfaction (compared to satisfaction) predicted dissatisfaction in 1981 (OR = 10.4; 95%CI 8.3–13.1) and 1990 (5.6; 4.6–6.8). Multiple adjustments decreased the risk only slightly. CONCLUSIONS: Life satisfaction in adult Finns was moderately stable during 15 years. Among an identifiable group (i.e. the dissatisfied) life dissatisfaction may become persistent, which places them at a greater risk of adverse health outcomes