821 research outputs found
An Economic Theory of Self-Control
Although many economists, most notably Strotz, have discussed dynamic inconsistency and precommitment, none have dealt directly with the essence of the problem: self-control. This paper attempts to fill that gap by modeling man as an organization. The Strotz model is recast to include the control features missing in his formulation. The organizational analogy permits us to draw on the theory of agency. We thus relate the individual's control problems with those that exist in agency relationships.
Belief heterogeneity and survival in incomplete markets
In complete markets economies (Sandroni [16]), or in economies with Pareto optimal outcomes (Blume and Easley [10]), the market selection hypothesis holds, as long as traders have identical discount factors. Traders who survive must have beliefs that merge with the truth. We show that in incomplete markets, regardless of tradersâ discount factors, the market selects for a range of beliefs, at least some of which do not merge with the truth. We also show that impatient traders with incorrect beliefs can survive and that these incorrect beliefs impact prices. These beliefs may be chosen so that they are far from the truth
Signal processing with Levy information
Levy processes, which have stationary independent increments, are ideal for
modelling the various types of noise that can arise in communication channels.
If a Levy process admits exponential moments, then there exists a parametric
family of measure changes called Esscher transformations. If the parameter is
replaced with an independent random variable, the true value of which
represents a "message", then under the transformed measure the original Levy
process takes on the character of an "information process". In this paper we
develop a theory of such Levy information processes. The underlying Levy
process, which we call the fiducial process, represents the "noise type". Each
such noise type is capable of carrying a message of a certain specification. A
number of examples are worked out in detail, including information processes of
the Brownian, Poisson, gamma, variance gamma, negative binomial, inverse
Gaussian, and normal inverse Gaussian type. Although in general there is no
additive decomposition of information into signal and noise, one is led
nevertheless for each noise type to a well-defined scheme for signal detection
and enhancement relevant to a variety of practical situations.Comment: 27 pages. Version to appear in: Proc. R. Soc. London
Why have asset price properties changed so little in 200 years
We first review empirical evidence that asset prices have had episodes of
large fluctuations and been inefficient for at least 200 years. We briefly
review recent theoretical results as well as the neurological basis of trend
following and finally argue that these asset price properties can be attributed
to two fundamental mechanisms that have not changed for many centuries: an
innate preference for trend following and the collective tendency to exploit as
much as possible detectable price arbitrage, which leads to destabilizing
feedback loops.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figure
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