The Phillips Curve Under State-Dependent Pricing

This paper is related to a large recent literature studying the Phillips curve in sticky-price equilibrium models. It differs in allowing for the degree of price stickiness to be determined endogenously. A closed-form solution for short-term inflation is derived from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with state-dependent pricing originally developed by Dotsey, King and Wolman. This generalised Phillips curve encompasses the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) based on Calvo-type price-setting as a special case. It describes current inflation as a function of lagged inflation, expected future inflation, and current and expected future real marginal costs. The paper demonstrates that inflation dynamics generated by the model for a broad class of time and state-dependent price-setting behaviours are well approximated by the popular hybrid NKPC (with one lag of inflation) in a low-inflation environment. This provides an explanation of why the hybrid NKPC performs well in describing inflation dynamics across industrial countries. It implies, however, that the reduced-form coefficients of the hybrid NKPC may not have a structural interpretationState-dependent pricing, inflation dynamics, Phillips curve.

Optimal sampling strategies for multiscale stochastic processes

In this paper, we determine which non-random sampling of fixed size gives the best linear predictor of the sum of a finite spatial population. We employ different multiscale superpopulation models and use the minimum mean-squared error as our optimality criterion. In multiscale superpopulation tree models, the leaves represent the units of the population, interior nodes represent partial sums of the population, and the root node represents the total sum of the population. We prove that the optimal sampling pattern varies dramatically with the correlation structure of the tree nodes. While uniform sampling is optimal for trees with ``positive correlation progression'', it provides the worst possible sampling with ``negative correlation progression.'' As an analysis tool, we introduce and study a class of independent innovations trees that are of interest in their own right. We derive a fast water-filling algorithm to determine the optimal sampling of the leaves to estimate the root of an independent innovations tree.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921706000000509 in the IMS Lecture Notes--Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Structural Preablation Dynamics of Graphite Observed by Ultrafast Electron Crystallography

By means of time-resolved electron crystallography, we report direct observation of the structural dynamics of graphite, providing new insights into the processes involving coherent lattice motions and ultrafast graphene ablation. When graphite is excited by an ultrashort laser pulse, the excited carriers reach their equilibrium in less then one picosecond by transferring heat to a subset of strongly coupled optical phonons. The time-resolved diffraction data show that on such a time scale the crystal undergoes a contraction whose velocity depends on the excitation fluence. The contraction is followed by a large expansion which, at sufficiently high fluence, leads to the ablation of entire graphene layers, as recently predicted theoretically

Early Archean spherule beds of possible impact origin from Barberton, South Africa: A detailed mineralogical and geochemical study

The Barberton Greenstone belt is a 3.5- to 3.2-Ga-old formation situated in the Swaziland Supergroup near Barberton, northeast Transvaal, South Africa. The belt includes a lower, predominantly volcanic sequence, and an upper sedimentary sequence (e.g., the Fig Tree Group). Within this upper sedimentary sequence, Lowe and Byerly identified a series of different beds of spherules with diameters of around 0.5-2 mm. Lowe and Byerly and Lowe et al. have interpreted these spherules to be condensates of rock vapor produced by large meteorite impacts in the early Archean. We have collected a series of samples from drill cores from the Mt. Morgan and Princeton sections near Barberton, as well as samples taken from underground exposures in the Sheba and Agnes mines. These samples seem much better preserved than the surface samples described by Lowe and Byerly and Lowe et al. Over a scale of just under 30 cm, several well-defined spherule beds are visible, interspaced with shales and/or layers of banded iron formation. Some spherules have clearly been deposited on top of a sedimentary unit because the shale layer shows indentions from the overlying spherules. Although fresher than the surface samples (e.g., spherule bed S-2), there is abundant evidence for extensive alteration, presumably by hydrothermal processes. In some sections of the cores sulfide mineralization is common. For our mineralogical and petrographical studies we have prepared detailed thin sections of all core and underground samples (as well as some surface samples from the S-2 layer for comparison). For geochemical work, layers with thicknesses in the order of 1-5 mm were separated from selected core and underground samples. The chemical analyses are being performed using neutron activation analysis in order to obtain data for about 35 trace elements in each sample. Major elements are being determined by XRF and plasma spectrometry. To clarify the history of the sulfide mineralization, sulfur isotopic compositions are being determined