Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies

Various methods are available for assessing uncertainties in climate impact studies. Among such methods, model weighting by expert elicitation is a practical way to provide a weighted ensemble of models for specific real-world impacts. The aim is to decrease the influence of improbable models in the results and easing the decision-making process. In this study both climate and hydrological models are analysed, and the result of a research experiment is presented using model weighting with the participation of six climate model experts and six hydrological model experts. For the experiment, seven climate models are a priori selected from a larger EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment - European Domain) ensemble of climate models, and three different hydrological models are chosen for each of the three European river basins. The model weighting is based on qualitative evaluation by the experts for each of the selected models based on a training material that describes the overall model structure and literature about climate models and the performance of hydrological models for the present period. The expert elicitation process follows a three-stage approach, with two individual rounds of elicitation of probabilities and a final group consensus, where the experts are separated into two different community groups: a climate and a hydrological modeller group. The dialogue reveals that under the conditions of the study, most climate modellers prefer the equal weighting of ensemble members, whereas hydrological-impact modellers in general are more open for assigning weights to different models in a multi-model ensemble, based on model performance and model structure. Climate experts are more open to exclude models, if obviously flawed, than to put weights on selected models in a relatively small ensemble. The study shows that expert elicitation can be an efficient way to assign weights to different hydrological models and thereby reduce the uncertainty in climate impact. However, for the climate model ensemble, comprising seven models, the elicitation in the format of this study could only re-establish a uniform weight between climate models

Characterization and Engineering Properties of Dry and Ponded Class-F Fly Ash

Characterization studies conducted on Class-F fly-ash specimens gathered from different producers in the southeastern United States confirm general trends reported for fly ash worldwide. Additional tests and detailed analyses explain the spread in specific gravity (interparticle porosity cenospheres), highlight the tendency to segregation and layering, and show marked ferromagnetism. Furthermore, data show that early diagenetic cementation—within days after wetting—hinders densification and produces a fabric that is prone to collapse. New procedures are specifically developed to diagnose and characterize early diagenesis, including (1) pH measurements as an indicator of diagenetic potential, (2) test protocols to assess early diagenesis using oedometer tests and shear-wave velocity, and (3) procedures to determine realizable unit weights as reference values for the analyses of contractive or dilative tendencies and instability. In the absence of early diagenetic cementation, dilative fly-ash behavior is expected in the upper ≈20  m under monotonic shear loading. Flow instability may follow the failure of the containment structure if the ponded ash is saturated and has experienced hindered densification

Undecidability in number theory

These lecture notes cover classical undecidability results in number theory, Hilbert's 10th problem and recent developments around it, also for rings other than the integers. It also contains a sketch of the authors result that the integers are universally definable in the rationals.Comment: 48 pages. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1011.342

Participation of Actin on Giardia lamblia Growth and Encystation

BACKGROUND:Microfilaments play a determinant role in different cell processes such as: motility, cell division, phagocytosis and intracellular transport; however, these structures are poorly understood in the parasite Giardia lamblia. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:By confocal microscopy using TRITC-phalloidin, we found structured actin distributed in the entire trophozoite, the label stand out at the ventral disc, median body, flagella and around the nuclei. During Giardia encystation, a sequence of morphological changes concurrent to modifications on the distribution of structured actin and in the expression of actin mRNA were observed. To elucidate whether actin participates actively on growth and encystation, cells were treated with Cytochalasin D, Latrunculin A and Jasplakinolide and analyzed by confocal and scanning electron microscopy. All drugs caused a growth reduction (27 to 45%) and changes on the distribution of actin. Besides, 60 to 80% of trophozoites treated with the drugs, exhibited damage at the caudal region, alterations in the flagella and wrinkles-like on the plasma membrane. The drugs also altered the cyst-yield and the morphology, scanning electron microscopy revealed diminished cytokinesis, cysts with damages in the wall and alterations in the size and on the intermembranal space. Furthermore, the drugs caused a significant reduction of the intensity of fluorescence-labeled CWP1 on ESV and on cyst wall, this was coincident with a reduction of CWP1 gene expression (34%). CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE:All our results, indicated an important role of actin in the morphology, growth and encystation and indirectly suggested an actin role in gene expression

On the fibres of an elliptic surface where rank does not jump

http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S000497272200136

Frequency of Toxoplasma gondii in Pork Meat in Ocotlan, Jalisco, Mexico

Toxoplasmosis is an infection caused by Toxoplasma gondii, an intracellular obligate parasite. Its transmission has usually been attributed to ingestion of undercooked or raw meat. The frequency of T. gondii in pork, the most common meat for human consumption in Jalisco, Mexico, is unknown; in Guadalajara city high prevalence of human toxoplasmosis has been documented. Forty-eight samples of pork meat from butcher shops in Ocotlan city were analyzed. Through bioassay, 50 g of tissue was homogenized in an acidic pepsin solution and inoculated subcutaneously to previously immunosuppressed mice. Blood samples from the mice tail vein were obtained before inoculation and 7, 14, 28, and 45 days postinoculation to analyze anti-Toxoplasma immunoglobulin (Ig) M and IgG antibody kinetics by indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. For histopathology, small fragments of the brain, lungs, heart, and skeletal muscle were extracted on day 45 and were stained with hematoxylin and eosin. Also, DNA was extracted from the pork meat for PCR amplification of the Bl gene. Even though all pork samples were negative by histopathology and PCR, IgG and IgM antibodies against T. gondii were detected in 1 of the 48 inoculated mice, reflecting a frequency of 2.1% positive pork meat, which is lower than expected but similar to that found in other regions. Copyright © International Association for Food Protection