Forecasts of the Scottish economy [March 2013]

After two quarters of negative growth, the Scottish economy delivered a strong performance in the third quarter of 2012. The UK economy as a whole saw negative growth in the final quarter of 2012 - and it looks likely that Scottish growth over 2012 will be close to zero. Over the coming year, we see slowing earnings growth, the introduction of welfare changes and continued fiscal consolidation weakening the domestic economy, while there could be increasing volatility, including potentially critical political shocks, in important export markets. The net result is a lowering of our central growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014. It continues to be true that risks are aligned to the downside again. Growth in the United States – Scotland's single largest export market – appears strong, highlighting opportunities, albeit further concentrating Scottish reliance on this market

Dispersive photoluminescence decay by geminate recombination in amorphous semiconductors

The photoluminescence decay in amorphous semiconductors is described by power law $t^{-delta}$ at long times. The power-law decay of photoluminescence at long times is commonly observed but recent experiments have revealed that the exponent, $delta sim 1.2-1.3$, is smaller than the value 1.5 predicted from a geminate recombination model assuming normal diffusion. Transient currents observed in the time-of-flight experiments are highly dispersive characterized by the disorder parameter $alpha$ smaller than 1. Geminate recombination rate should be influenced by the dispersive transport of charge carriers. In this paper we derive the simple relation, $delta = 1+ alpha/2$. Not only the exponent but also the amplitude of the decay calculated in this study is consistent with measured photoluminescence in a-Si:H.Comment: 18pages. Submitted for the publication in Phys. Rev.

The Small Observed Baryon Asymmetry from a Large Lepton Asymmetry

Primordial Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) tightly constrains the existence of any additional relativistic degrees of freedom at that epoch. However a large asymmetry in electron neutrino number shifts the chemical equilibrium between the neutron and proton at neutron freeze-out and allows such additional particle species. Moreover, the BBN itself may also prefer such an asymmetry to reconcile predicted element abundances and observations. However, such a large asymmetry appears to be in conflict with the observed small baryon asymmetry if they are in sphaleron mediated equilibrium. In this paper we point out the surprising fact that in the Standard Model, if the asymmetries in the electron number and the muon number are equal (and opposite) and of the size required to reconcile BBN theory with observations, a baryon asymmetry of the Universe of the correct magnitude and sign is automatically generated within a factor of two. This small remaining discrepancy is naturally remedied in the supersymmetric Standard Model.Comment: 14 page

Dynamical (Super)Symmetry Breaking

Dynamical Symmetry Breaking (DSB) is a concept theorists rely on very often in the discussions of strong dynamics, model building, and hierarchy problems. In this talk, I will discuss why this is such a permeating concept among theorists and how they are used in understanding physics. I also briefly review recent progress in using dynamical symmetry breaking to construct models of supersymmetry breaking and fermion masses

Impurity effects at finite temperature in the two-dimensional S=1/2 Heisenberg antiferromagnet

We discuss effects of various impurities on the magnetic susceptibility and the specific heat of the quantum S=1/2 Heisenberg antiferromagnet on a two-dimensional square lattice. For impurities with spin S_i > 0 (here S_i=1/2 in the case of a vacancy or an added spin, and S_i=1 for a spin coupled ferromagnetically to its neighbors), our quantum Monte Carlo simulations confirm a classical-like Curie susceptibility contribution S_i^2/4T, which originates from an alignment of the impurity spin with the local N\'eel order. In addition, we find a logarithmically divergent contribution, which we attribute to fluctuations transverse to the local N\'eel vector. We also study frustrated and nonfrustrated bond impurities with S_i=0. For a simple intuitive picture of the impurity problem, we discuss an effective few-spin model that can distinguish between the different impurities and reproduces the leading-order simulation data over a wide temperature range.Comment: 15 pages, 14 figures, submitted to PRB. v2, published version with cosmetic change

Quark mass uncertainties revive KSVZ axion dark matter

The Kaplan-Manohar ambiguity in light quark masses allows for a larger uncertainty in the ratio of up to down quark masses than naive estimates from the chiral Lagrangian would indicate. We show that it allows for a relaxation of experimental bounds on the QCD axion, specifically KSVZ axions in the $2-3 \mu$eV mass range composing 100% of the galactic dark matter halo can evade the experimental limits placed by the ADMX collaboration.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

Randall-Sundrum graviton spin determination using azimuthal angular dependence

Quantum interference of helicity amplitudes provides a powerful tool for measuring the spins of new particles. By looking at the azimuthal angular dependence of the differential cross-section in the production followed by decay of a new particle species one can determine its spin by looking at the various cosine modes. The heavy spin-2 Kaluza-Klein (KK) graviton provides a unique signature with a $\cos{(4 \phi)}$ mode. We study the feasibility of this approach to measuring the spin of the KK graviton in the Randall-Sundrum Model at the LHC.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figure

Complete recovery from anxiety disorders following Cognitive Behavioural Therapy in children and adolescents: a meta analysis

Cognitive Behavior Therapy (CBT) is a well-established treatment for childhood anxiety disorders. Meta-analyses have concluded that approximately 60% of children recover following treatment, however these include studies using a broad range of diagnostic indices to assess outcomes including whether children are free of the one anxiety disorder that causes most interference (i.e. the primary anxiety disorder) or whether children are free of all anxiety disorders. We conducted a meta-analysis to establish the efficacy of CBT in terms of absence of all anxiety disorders. Where available we compared this rate to outcomes based on absence of primary disorder. Of 56 published randomized controlled trials, 19 provided data on recovery from all anxiety disorders (n = 635 CBT, n = 450 control participants). There was significant heterogeneity across those studies with available data and full recovery rates varied from 47.6 to 66.4% among children without autistic spectrum conditions (ASC) and 12.2 to 36.7% for children with ASC following treatment, compared to up to 20.6% and 21.3% recovery in waitlist and active treatment comparisons. The lack of consistency in diagnostic outcomes highlights the urgent need for consensus on reporting in future RCTs of childhood anxiety disorders for the meaningful synthesis of data going forwards