ECONOMIC CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS

Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitative precision or qualitative reliability. We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potential utility gains from utilizing them, not for their accuracy. Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns, the expected utility of a set of qualitative forecasts is simulated for corn and soybean futures prices. Monetary values for forecasts of various reliability levels are derived. The method goes beyond statistical forecast evaluation, allowing individuals to incorporate their own utility function and trading system into valuing a set of asset price forecasts.Commodity prices, Forecast evaluation, Value of information, Consumer/Household Economics,

THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS ON ACREAGE RESPONSE OVER TIME: THE CASE OF CORN PRODUCTION IN IOWA

Corn acreage response in Iowa is examined using a time-varying parameter regression model. Separate estimates of the permanent portion of the parameter vector are obtained for each year over the period 1957-82. The estimated elasticities are grouped into “program” and “nonprogram” periods. The results indicate corn acreage response is more own-price elastics, and the elasticity is less variable under government acreage control programs than under a “nonprogram” regime. The assumption of parameter constancy is shown to be inappropriate for modeling Iowa corn acreage response over time.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

PUTTING THE "ECON" INTO ECONOMETRICS

Should econometricians always incorporate economic theory in their models or only when unrestricted estimators are found to violate an inviolable theory? Using Monte Carlo experiments, we find that econometricians should use economic theory to the fullest extent possible. To paraphrase Leamer's classic article, we should put the "econ" into econometrics.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Correlations of the IR Luminosity and Eddington Ratio with a Hard X-ray Selected Sample of AGN

We use the SWIFT Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) sample of hard x-ray selected active galactic nuclei (AGN) with a median redshift of 0.03 and the 2MASS J and K band photometry to examine the correlation of hard x-ray emission to Eddington ratio as well as the relationship of the J and K band nuclear luminosity to the hard x-ray luminosity. The BAT sample is almost unbiased by the effects of obscuration and thus offers the first large unbiased sample for the examination of correlations between different wavelength bands. We find that the near-IR nuclear J and K band luminosity is related to the BAT (14 - 195 keV) luminosity over a factor of $10^3$ in luminosity ($L_{IR} \approx L_{BAT}^{1.25}$)and thus is unlikely to be due to dust. We also find that the Eddington ratio is proportional to the x-ray luminosity. This new result should be a strong constraint on models of the formation of the broad band continuum.Comment: accepted to ApJ

Temperature dependent carrier lifetime studies of Mo in crystalline silicon

The capture cross sections of both electronsσn and holes σp were determined for interstitialmolybdenum in crystalline silicon over the temperature range of −110 to 150 °C. Carrier lifetimemeasurements were performed on molybdenum-contaminated silicon using a temperature controlled photoconductance instrument. Injection dependent lifetime spectroscopy was applied at each temperature to calculate σp and σn. This analysis involved a novel approach that independently determined the capture cross sections at each temperature assuming a known defect density and thermal velocity. Since the energy state is in the lower half of the bandgap, the determination of σp is unaffected by the defect energy at all temperatures, and σp is found to decrease with temperature in a fashion consistent with excitonic Auger capture. At temperatures below 0 °C, the determination of σn is also unaffected by the defect energy due to the suppression of thermal emission, and σn decreases with temperature as well. It is shown that a projection of σn to higher temperature suggests the defect has an energy of 0.375 eV above the valance band edge of silicon.D.M. likes to thank the Australian Research Council for fellowship and G.C. likes to thank “CrystalClear Integrated Project” Contract No. SES6-CT_2003-502583 funded by the European Commission

Looking Beyond the Self: Tibetan Buddhist and Navajo Transformation Ceremonies

Sandpaintings are tools used by many cultures to convey a message of religious teaching, universal balance and visual beauty. Through the process of teaching and visualization, the mandala or sandpainting ceremony is of singular importance to the Tibetan Buddhists of Central Asia and to the Navajo people of North America as well. Although sandpaintings provide a visual rendition of a specific teaching or story, and may take many forms, they must be understood as only one component of a much larger ritual event

The degradation of alzak by short wavelength ultraviolet radiation

The changes in reflectance of thermal aluminum coating samples exposed to different irradiating utraviolet wavelengths are discussed. It is shown that the coating is damaged faster and further by 180 to 210 in radiation than by Lyman alpha radiation. On an equivalent incident energy basis, Lyman alpha does less damage than 180 to 210 nm radiation. Above 300 nm no degradation is observed for long exposures and below 300 nm increasing degradation with decreasing wavelength is found. It is concluded that Lyman alpha radiation need not be included in laboratory testing of this thermal coating for spacecraft structures