Incidence trends of prostate cancer in East Anglia, before and during the era of PSA diagnostic testing

We investigated prostate cancer incidence in East Anglia from 1971 to 2000. Using age-period-cohort modelling, the number of cases expected in 1991–2000, based on pre-PSA trends, 1971–1990, was compared with that observed. Based on pre-1991 trends, 9203 new cases were expected in 1991–2000, but 9788 cases were observed, an excess of 6%

Should Age-Dependent Absolute Risk Thresholds Be Used for Risk Stratification in Risk-Stratified Breast Cancer Screening?

In risk-stratified cancer screening, multiple risk factors are incorporated into the risk assessment. An individual’s estimated absolute cancer risk is linked to risk categories with tailored screening recommendations for each risk category. Absolute risk, expressed as either remaining lifetime risk or shorter-term (five- or ten-year) risk, is estimated from the age at assessment. These risk estimates vary by age; however, some clinical guidelines (e.g., enhanced breast cancer surveillance guidelines) and ongoing personalised breast screening trials, stratify women based on absolute risk thresholds that do not vary by age. We examine an alternative approach in which the risk thresholds used for risk stratification vary by age and consider the implications of using age-independent risk thresholds on risk stratification. We demonstrate that using an age-independent remaining lifetime risk threshold approach could identify high-risk younger women but would miss high-risk older women, whereas an age-independent 5-year or 10-year absolute risk threshold could miss high-risk younger women and classify lower-risk older women as high risk. With risk misclassification, women with an equivalent risk level would be offered a different screening plan. To mitigate these problems, age-dependent absolute risk thresholds should be used to inform risk stratification

Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival in Scotland 1986–2000

We analysed trends in 5-year survival of the 18 commonest cancers in Scotland diagnosed between 1986 and 2000 and followed up to 2004 in each of five deprivation groups based on patients postcode of residence at diagnosis. We estimated relative survival up to 5 years after diagnosis, adjusting for the different background mortality in each deprivation group by age, sex and calendar period. We estimated trends in overall survival and in the deprivation gap in survival up to 2004. Five-year survival improved for all malignancies except bladder cancer and was associated with a widening in the deprivation gap in survival. For 25 of 30 cancer–sex combinations examined, 5-year survival was lower among more deprived patients diagnosed during 1996–2000, and the deprivation gap in survival had widened since 1986–1990 for 15 of these 25 cancers, similar to the trends seen in England and Wales

Risk-stratified approach to breast cancer screening in canada: Women’s knowledge of the legislative context and concerns about discrimination from genetic and other predictive health data

The success of risk-stratified approaches in improving population-based breast cancer screening programs depends in no small part on women’s buy-in. Fear of genetic discrimination (GD) could be a potential barrier to genetic testing uptake as part of risk assessment. Thus, the objective of this study was twofold. First, to evaluate Canadian women’s knowledge of the legislative context governing GD. Second, to assess their concerns about the possible use of breast cancer risk levels by insurance companies or employers. We use a cross-sectional survey of 4293 (age: 30–69) women, conducted in four Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Colombia, Ontario and Québec). Canadian women’s knowledge of the regulatory framework for GD is relatively limited, with some gaps and misconceptions noted. About a third (34.7%) of the participants had a lot of concerns about the use of their health information by employers or insurers; another third had some concerns (31.9%), while 20% had no concerns. There is a need to further educate and inform the Canadian public about GD and the legal protections that exist to prevent it. Enhanced knowledge could facilitate the implementation and uptake of risk prediction informed by genetic factors, such as the risk-stratified approach to breast cancer screening that includes risk levels

Is Cancer survival associated with cancer symptom awareness and barriers to seeking medical help in England? An ecological study

Abstract BACKGROUND: Campaigns aimed at raising cancer awareness and encouraging early presentation have been implemented in England. However, little is known about whether people with low cancer awareness and increased barriers to seeking medical help have worse cancer survival, and whether there is a geographical variation in cancer awareness and barriers in England. METHODS: From population-based surveys (n=35?308), using the Cancer Research UK Cancer Awareness Measure, we calculated the age- and sex-standardised symptom awareness and barriers scores for 52 primary care trusts (PCTs). These measures were evaluated in relation to the sex-, age-, and type of cancer-standardised cancer survival index of the corresponding PCT, from the National Cancer Registry, using linear regression. Breast, lung, and bowel cancer survival were analysed separately. RESULTS: Cancer symptom awareness and barriers scores varied greatly between geographical regions in England, with the worst scores observed in socioeconomically deprived parts of East London. Low cancer awareness score was associated with poor cancer survival at PCT level (estimated slope=1.56, 95% CI: 0.56; 2.57). The barriers score was not associated with overall cancer survival, but it was associated with breast cancer survival (estimated slope=-0.66, 95% CI: -1.20; -0.11). Specific barriers, such as embarrassment and difficulties in arranging transport to the doctor's surgery, were associated with worse breast cancer survival. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer symptom awareness and cancer survival are associated. Campaigns should focus on improving awareness about cancer symptoms, especially in socioeconomically deprived areas. Efforts should be made to alleviate barriers to seeking medical help in women with symptoms of breast cancer.British Journal of Cancer advance online publication 18 August 2016; doi:10.1038/bjc.2016.246 www.bjcancer.com

Implications of polygenic risk-stratified screening for prostate cancer on overdiagnosis.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to quantify the probability of overdiagnosis of prostate cancer by polygenic risk. METHODS: We calculated the polygenic risk score based on 66 known prostate cancer susceptibility variants for 17,012 men aged 50-69 years (9,404 men identified with prostate cancer and 7,608 with no cancer) derived from three UK-based ongoing studies. We derived the probabilities of overdiagnosis by quartiles of polygenic risk considering that the observed prevalence of screen-detected prostate cancer is a combination of underlying incidence, mean sojourn time (MST), test sensitivity, and overdiagnosis. RESULTS: Polygenic risk quartiles 1 to 4 comprised 9, 18, 25, and 48% of the cases, respectively. For a prostate-specific antigen test sensitivity of 80% and MST of 9 years, 43, 30, 25, and 19% of the prevalent screen-detected cancers in quartiles 1 to 4, respectively, were likely to be overdiagnosed cancers. Overdiagnosis decreased with increasing polygenic risk, with 56% decrease between the lowest and the highest polygenic risk quartiles. CONCLUSION: Targeting screening to men at higher polygenic risk could reduce the problem of overdiagnosis and lead to a better benefit-to-harm balance in screening for prostate cancer.N.P. is a Cancer Research UK Clinician Scientist Fellow. The COGS project was funded through a European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme grant (agreement number: 223175- HEALTH-F2-2009–223175), Cancer Research UK (C490/A10124), the UK National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the University of Cambridge. The ProtecT study is supported by the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, HTA 96/20/99; ISRCTN20141297. The Comparative Arm of ProtecT (CAP) trial is funded by Cancer Research UK and the UK Department of Health (C11043/A4286, C18281/A8145, C18281/A11326, and C18281/A15064). UKGPCS is funded by Cancer Research UK and the National Cancer Research Network. The Biomedical Research Centre at the Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust receive funding support from NIHR. SEARCH is funded by Cancer Research UK. We thank all the participants in these studies: members of the ProtecT study research group (Anne George, Michael Davis, and Athene Lane), Don Conroy, Craig Luccarini, Caroline Baynes, the SEARCH team, the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre, and the general practitioners who assisted with recruitment. This work was supported by funding from the Cancer Research UK Clinician Scientist Fellowship.This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://www.nature.com/gim/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/gim2014192a.html

Survival trends for small intestinal cancer in England and Wales, 1971–1990: national population-based study

This population-based study examines prognostic factors and survival trends among adults (15–99 years) diagnosed with small intestinal cancer in England and Wales during 1971–1990 and followed up to 1995. During this period, the 1- and 5-year age-standardised relative survival rates for small intestinal cancers combined were 42% and 23%, respectively. Duodenal tumours, adenocarcinomas, men, patients with advanced age and the most deprived patients had the poorest prognosis. For all small bowel tumours combined, the excess risk of death fell significantly by 6–9% every 4 years over the 20-year period (adjusted excess hazard ratio (EHR) 0.91 at 1 year after diagnosis, 0.94 at 5 years). For duodenal tumours, the EHR fell by about 14% (95% CI 5–22%) every 4 years between 1979 and 1990, and a similar trend for jejunal tumours was of borderline significance. Further population-based investigations linking survival data to individual data on diagnostic methods and types of treatment are needed

Pubertal development and prostate cancer risk: Mendelian randomization study in a population-based cohort

Background: Epidemiological studies have observed a positive association between an earlier age at sexual development and prostate cancer, but markers of sexual maturation in boys are imprecise and observational estimates are likely to suffer from a degree of uncontrolled confounding. To obtain causal estimates, we examined the role of pubertal development in prostate cancer using genetic polymorphisms associated with Tanner stage in adolescent boys in a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach.Methods: We derived a weighted genetic risk score for pubertal development, combining 13 SNPs associated with male Tanner stage. A higher score indicated a later puberty onset. We examined the association of this score with prostate cancer risk, stage and grade in the UK-based ProtecT case-control study (n = 2,927), and used the PRACTICAL consortium (n = 43,737) as a replication sample.Results: In ProtecT, the puberty genetic score was inversely associated with prostate cancer grade (odds ratio (OR) of high-vs. low-grade cancer, per tertile of the score: 0.76; 95 % CI, 0.64-0.89). In an instrumental variable estimation of the causal OR, later physical development in adolescence (equivalent to a difference of one Tanner stage between pubertal boys of the same age) was associated with a 77 % (95 % CI, 43-91 %) reduced odds of high Gleason prostate cancer. In PRACTICAL, the puberty genetic score was associated with prostate cancer stage (OR of advanced vs. localized cancer, per tertile: 0.95; 95 % CI, 0.91-1.00) and prostate cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio amongst cases, per tertile: 0.94; 95 % CI, 0.90-0.98), but not with disease grade.Conclusions: Older age at sexual maturation is causally linked to a reduced risk of later prostate cancer, especially aggressive disease

Pubertal development and prostate cancer risk: Mendelian randomization study in a population-based cohort

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have observed a positive association between an earlier age at sexual development and prostate cancer, but markers of sexual maturation in boys are imprecise and observational estimates are likely to suffer from a degree of uncontrolled confounding. To obtain causal estimates, we examined the role of pubertal development in prostate cancer using genetic polymorphisms associated with Tanner stage in adolescent boys in a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. METHODS: We derived a weighted genetic risk score for pubertal development, combining 13 SNPs associated with male Tanner stage. A higher score indicated a later puberty onset. We examined the association of this score with prostate cancer risk, stage and grade in the UK-based ProtecT case-control study (n = 2,927), and used the PRACTICAL consortium (n = 43,737) as a replication sample. RESULTS: In ProtecT, the puberty genetic score was inversely associated with prostate cancer grade (odds ratio (OR) of high- vs. low-grade cancer, per tertile of the score: 0.76; 95 % CI, 0.64-0.89). In an instrumental variable estimation of the causal OR, later physical development in adolescence (equivalent to a difference of one Tanner stage between pubertal boys of the same age) was associated with a 77 % (95 % CI, 43-91 %) reduced odds of high Gleason prostate cancer. In PRACTICAL, the puberty genetic score was associated with prostate cancer stage (OR of advanced vs. localized cancer, per tertile: 0.95; 95 % CI, 0.91-1.00) and prostate cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio amongst cases, per tertile: 0.94; 95 % CI, 0.90-0.98), but not with disease grade. CONCLUSIONS: Older age at sexual maturation is causally linked to a reduced risk of later prostate cancer, especially aggressive disease

Polygenic susceptibility to prostate and breast cancer: implications for personalised screening

BACKGROUND: We modelled the efficiency of a personalised approach to screening for prostate and breast cancer based on age and polygenic risk-profile compared with the standard approach based on age alone.METHODS: We compared the number of cases potentially detectable by screening in a population undergoing personalised screening with a population undergoing screening based on age alone. Polygenic disease risk was assumed to have a log-normal relative risk distribution predicted for the currently known prostate or breast cancer susceptibility variants (N = 31 and N = 18, respectively).RESULTS: Compared with screening men based on age alone (aged 55-79: 10-year absolute risk >= 2%), personalised screening of men age 45-79 at the same risk threshold would result in 16% fewer men being eligible for screening at a cost of 3% fewer screen-detectable cases, but with added benefit of detecting additional cases in younger men at high risk. Similarly, compared with screening women based on age alone (aged 47-79: 10-year absolute risk >= 2.5%), personalised screening of women age 35-79 at the same risk threshold would result in 24% fewer women being eligible for screening at a cost of 14% fewer screen-detectable cases.CONCLUSION: Personalised screening approach could improve the efficiency of screening programmes. This has potential implications on informing public health policy on cancer screening. British Journal of Cancer (2011) 104, 1656 -1663. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2011.118 www.bjcancer.com Published online 5 April 2011 (C) 2011 Cancer Research U