A stochastic model for multivariate surveillance of infectious diseases

We describe a stochastic model based on a branching process for analyzing surveillance data of infectious diseases that allows to make forecasts of the future development of the epidemic. The model is based on a Poisson branching process with immigration with additional adjustment for possible overdispersion. An extension to a space-time model for the multivariate case is described. The model is estimated in a Bayesian context using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. We illustrate the applicability of the model through analyses of simulated and real data

A statistical framework for the analysis of multivariate infectious disease surveillance data

A framework for the statistical analysis of counts from infectious disease surveillance databases is proposed. In its simplest form, the model can be seen as a Poisson branching process model with immigration. Extensions to include seasonal effects, time trends and overdispersion are outlined. The model is shown to provide an adequate fit and reliable one-step-ahead prediction intervals for a typical infectious disease surveillance time series. Furthermore, a multivariate formulation is proposed, which is well suited to capture space-time interactions caused by the spatial spread of a disease over time. Analyses of uni- and multivariate times series on several infectious diseases are described. All analyses have been done using general optimization routines where ML estimates and corresponding standard errors are readily available

Assessment of varicella vaccine effectiveness in Germany: a time-series approach

A multivariate time-series regression model was developed in order to describe the 2005-2008 age-specific time-course of varicella sentinel surveillance data following the introduction of a varicella childhood vaccination programme in Germany. This ecological approach allows the assessment of vaccine effectiveness under field conditions by relating vaccine coverage in cohorts of 24-month-old children to the mean number of cases per reporting unit in the sentinel network. For the 1-2 years age group, which is directly affected by the vaccination programme, a one-dose vaccine effectiveness of 83·2% (95% CI 80·2-85·7) was estimated which corresponds to previous approaches assessing varicella vaccine effectiveness in the field in the US

Linguistic and non-linguistic non-adjacent dependency learning in early development

Non-adjacent dependencies (NADs) are important building blocks for language and extracting them from the input is a fundamental part of language acquisition. Prior event-related potential (ERP) studies revealed changes in the neural signature of NAD learning between infancy and adulthood, suggesting a developmental shift in the learning route for NADs. The present study aimed to specify which brain regions are involved in this developmental shift and whether this shift extends to NAD learning in the non-linguistic domain. In two experiments, 2- and 3-year-old German-learning children were familiarized with either Italian sentences or tone sequences containing NADs and subsequently tested with NAD violations, while functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) data were recorded. Results showed increased hemodynamic responses related to the detection of linguistic NAD violations in the left temporal, inferior frontal, and parietal regions in 2-year-old children, but not in 3-year-old children. A different developmental trajectory was found for non-linguistic NADs, where 3-year-old, but not 2-year-old children showed evidence for the detection of non-linguistic NAD violations. These results confirm a developmental shift in the NAD learning route and point to distinct mechanisms underlying NAD learning in the linguistic and the non-linguistic domain

Children's learning of non-adjacent dependencies using a web-based computer game setting

Infants show impressive speech decoding abilities and detect acoustic regularities that highlight the syntactic relations of a language, often coded via non-adjacent dependencies (NADs, e.g., is singing). It has been claimed that infants learn NADs implicitly and associatively through passive listening and that there is a shift from effortless associative learning to a more controlled learning of NADs after the age of 2 years, potentially driven by the maturation of the prefrontal cortex. To investigate if older children are able to learn NADs, Lammertink et al. (2019) recently developed a word-monitoring serial reaction time (SRT) task and could show that 6–11-year-old children learned the NADs, as their reaction times (RTs) increased then they were presented with violated NADs. In the current study we adapted their experimental paradigm and tested NAD learning in a younger group of 52 children between the age of 4–8 years in a remote, web-based, game-like setting (whack-a-mole). Children were exposed to Italian phrases containing NADs and had to monitor the occurrence of a target syllable, which was the second element of the NAD. After exposure, children did a “Stem Completion” task in which they were presented with the first element of the NAD and had to choose the second element of the NAD to complete the stimuli. Our findings show that, despite large variability in the data, children aged 4–8 years are sensitive to NADs; they show the expected differences in r RTs in the SRT task and could transfer the NAD-rule in the Stem Completion task. We discuss these results with respect to the development of NAD dependency learning in childhood and the practical impact and limitations of collecting these data in a web-based setting

Precursors to Natural Grammar Learning: Preliminary Evidence from 4-Month-Old Infants

When learning a new language, grammar—although difficult—is very important, as grammatical rules determine the relations between the words in a sentence. There is evidence that very young infants can detect rules determining the relation between neighbouring syllables in short syllable sequences. A critical feature of all natural languages, however, is that many grammatical rules concern the dependency relation between non-neighbouring words or elements in a sentence i.e. between an auxiliary and verb inflection as in is singing. Thus, the issue of when and how children begin to recognize such non-adjacent dependencies is fundamental to our understanding of language acquisition. Here, we use brain potential measures to demonstrate that the ability to recognize dependencies between non-adjacent elements in a novel natural language is observable by the age of 4 months. Brain responses indicate that 4-month-old German infants discriminate between grammatical and ungrammatical dependencies in auditorily presented Italian sentences after only brief exposure to correct sentences of the same type. As the grammatical dependencies are realized by phonologically distinct syllables the present data most likely reflect phonologically based implicit learning mechanisms which can serve as a precursor to later grammar learning