Seismotectonics of the active thrust front in southwestern Sicily: hints on the Belice and Selinunte seismogenic sources

We present a seismotectonic model of the active thrust front in western Sicily, which includes the area hit by the 1968 Belice earthquake sequence. The ~40 km long South-WEstern Sicilian Thrust (SWEST) is formed by two aligned albeit non-parallel fault arrays, the Granitola-Castelevetrano Thrust System (GCTS) in the west and the Partanna- Poggioreale Thrust System (PPTS) in the east. The ~NE-SW trending, NW-dipping GCTS straddles from the Pelagian coastline to Castelvetrano, is ~18 km long and composed of two segments, with the northern, ~12 km long one showing geodetic and geologic evidence of active deformation (Barreca et al., 2014). The segment is marked by a sharp gradient in Differential SAR interferometry (DinSAR and STAMPs) and GPS velocity fields. Geologic evidence include an up to 60 m high, and up to 15° steep scarp, which is the fore-limb of a broad fold involving Lower Pleistocene shore calcarenites, and cm-scale reverse displacement of an ancient road dated as early Bronze-Hellenistic age. Inversion of fault slip-lineation data from structures displacing the archaeological remains yields a ~N110°E shortening axis, consistent with the geodetic shortening direction estimated from GPS differential velocities. The ~ENE-WSW trending PPTS stretches from Partanna to the macro-seismic area of the 1968 earthquake sequence and is composed of two ~10 km long segments limited by relay ramps. Although geologic and geodetic evidence of deformation are less clear than for the GCTS, we nonetheless observe a gradient in interferometry data for the western segment, and evidence of slow deformation (creep?) in historical to recent (last ~400 yr?) man-made structures. Integration of geologic, geodetic and seismology data suggests the active folds and thrusts are the uppermost expression of steep (45°) crustal ramps (Monaco et al., 1996) which upthrust the Saccense platform at depth. Based on macroseismic and seismological evidence (Monaco et al., 1996), we contend that the PPTS was partly activated during the 1968 sequence, and that rupture stopped at the junction with the GCTS. The current geodetic strain accumulation on the GCTS, on the other hand, suggests that the fault array has been significantly loaded, and that its last important co-seismic event could have been caused the 4th–5th century A.D. destruction of Selinunte (Bottari et al., 2009)

Early motor signs of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder: a systematic review

ADHD is a common neurodevelopmental disorder with onset of symptoms typically in early childhood. First signs of the disorder, including language delay, motor delay and temperament characteristics, may be evident as early as infancy. The present review describes published evidence about early motor signs of either children with later symptoms of ADHD or a later diagnosis of the disorder. Nine published cohort studies were included after a systematic search of related terms in PubMed and PsycInfo databases. Study eligibility criteria included: (1) report on early motor function or any motor-related signs; (2) the presence of a participants’ assessment by/at 12 months of age; (3) report of a later presence of ADHD symptoms. The limited number of reports included suggests an association between mild early neurological markers and later developmental coordination disorder and motor overflow movements. Unfortunately, due to their small sample sizes and focus on group reports rather than individuals, they have limited power to find strong associations. Early motor indicators of ADHD, if present, appear to be non-specific, and therefore not yet useful in clinical screening. Spontaneous motility seems to be a promising measure for early ADHD detection, although further studies with large cohorts are recommended to determine its clinical role in children at risk for ADHD

Use of combinations of antipsychotics: McLean Hospital inpatients, 2002

Background The empirical use of combinations of antipsychotic agents appears to be increasing with little research support for the relative efficacy, safety or cost-effectiveness of this practice. Such treatment was evaluated in hospitalized psychiatric patients. Methods Samples of consecutive inpatients treated with > 2 ('polytherapy') vs 1 antipsychotic ('monotherapy') were matched on age, sex, diagnosis and admission clinical ratings, and these groups were compared on total daily chlorpromazine-equivalent doses, days in hospital, and changes in clinical ratings between admission and discharge. Results The study sample included 69 polytherapy and 115 well-matched monotherapy subjects. Despite matching for initial CGI and GAF ratings, polytherapy was associated with high PANSS subscale scores of positive symptoms among affective psychosis, and relatively greater PANSS subscale ratings of excitement-agitation among patients diagnosed with schizophrenia. Estimated clinical improvement during hospitalization was similar among poly- and monotherapy patients, but total daily CPZ-eq doses at discharge averaged twice-greater with polytherapy, and hospitalization lasted 1.5 times longer. Conclusions Antipsychotic polytherapy as well as the types of agents combined may reflect clinician responses to particular symptom patterns. The value of specific combinations of antipsychotic agents and their comparison with monotherapies requires specific, prospective, randomized and well-controlled trials that consider matching on clinical characteristics and truly comparable doses across regimens. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Spatial modes for transmission of chikungunya virus during a large chikungunya outbreak in Italy: a modeling analysis

14openInternationalBothBackground The spatial spread of many mosquito-borne diseases occurs by focal spread at the scale of a few hundred meters and over longer distances due to human mobility. The relative contributions of different spatial scales for transmission of chikungunya virus require definition to improve outbreak vector control recommendations. Methods We analyzed data from a large chikungunya outbreak mediated by the mosquito Aedes albopictus in the Lazio region, Italy, consisting of 414 reported human cases between June and November 2017. Using dates of symptom onset, geographic coordinates of residence, and information from epidemiological questionnaires, we reconstructed transmission chains related to that outbreak. Results Focal spread (within 1 km) accounted for 54.9% of all cases, 15.8% were transmitted at a local scale (1–15 km) and the remaining 29.3% were exported from the main areas of chikungunya circulation in Lazio to longer distances such as Rome and other geographical areas. Seventy percent of focal infections (corresponding to 38% of the total 414 cases) were transmitted within a distance of 200 m (the buffer distance adopted by the national guidelines for insecticide spraying). Two main epidemic clusters were identified, with a radius expanding at a rate of 300–600 m per month. The majority of exported cases resulted in either sporadic or no further transmission in the region. Conclusions Evidence suggest that human mobility contributes to seeding a relevant number of secondary cases and new foci of transmission over several kilometers. Reactive vector control based on current guidelines might allow a significant number of secondary clusters in untreated areas, especially if the outbreak is not detected early. Existing policies and guidelines for control during outbreaks should recommend the prioritization of preventive measures in neighboring territories with known mobility flows to the main areas of transmission.openGuzzetta, Giorgio; Vairo, Francesco; Mammone, Alessia; Lanini, Simone; Poletti, Piero; Manica, Mattia; Rosa, Roberto; Caputo, Beniamino; Solimini, Angelo; Torre, Alessandra Della; Scognamiglio, Paola; Zumla, Alimuddin; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Merler, StefanoGuzzetta, G.; Vairo, F.; Mammone, A.; Lanini, S.; Poletti, P.; Manica, M.; Rosa, R.; Caputo, B.; Solimini, A.; Torre, A.D.; Scognamiglio, P.; Zumla, A.; Ippolito, G.; Merler, S

Spatial modes for transmission of chikungunya virus during a large chikungunya outbreak in Italy. A modeling analysis

Background The spatial spread of many mosquito-borne diseases occurs by focal spread at the scale of a few hundred meters and over longer distances due to human mobility. The relative contributions of different spatial scales for transmission of chikungunya virus require definition to improve outbreak vector control recommendations. Methods We analyzed data from a large chikungunya outbreak mediated by the mosquito Aedes albopictus in the Lazio region, Italy, consisting of 414 reported human cases between June and November 2017. Using dates of symptom onset, geographic coordinates of residence, and information from epidemiological questionnaires, we reconstructed transmission chains related to that outbreak. Results Focal spread (within 1 km) accounted for 54.9% of all cases, 15.8% were transmitted at a local scale (1–15 km) and the remaining 29.3% were exported from the main areas of chikungunya circulation in Lazio to longer distances such as Rome and other geographical areas. Seventy percent of focal infections (corresponding to 38% of the total 414 cases) were transmitted within a distance of 200 m (the buffer distance adopted by the national guidelines for insecticide spraying). Two main epidemic clusters were identified, with a radius expanding at a rate of 300–600 m per month. The majority of exported cases resulted in either sporadic or no further transmission in the region. Conclusions Evidence suggest that human mobility contributes to seeding a relevant number of secondary cases and new foci of transmission over several kilometers. Reactive vector control based on current guidelines might allow a significant number of secondary clusters in untreated areas, especially if the outbreak is not detected early. Existing policies and guidelines for control during outbreaks should recommend the prioritization of preventive measures in neighboring territories with known mobility flows to the main areas of transmission

Estimation of the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data

Quantitative information on epidemiological quantities such as the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants is scarce. We analyzed a dataset collected during contact tracing activities in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout 2021. We determined the distributions of the incubation period for the Alpha and Delta variants using information on negative PCR tests and the date of last exposure from 282 symptomatic cases. We estimated the distributions of the intrinsic generation time using a Bayesian inference approach applied to 9724 SARS-CoV-2 cases clustered in 3545 households where at least one secondary case was recorded. We estimated a mean incubation period of 4.9 days (95% credible intervals, CrI, 4.4-5.4) for Alpha and 4.5 days (95%CrI 4.0-5.0) for Delta. The intrinsic generation time was estimated to have a mean of 7.12 days (95% CrI 6.27-8.44) for Alpha and of 6.52 days (95%CrI 5.54-8.43) for Delta. The household serial interval was 2.43 days (95%CrI 2.29-2.58) for Alpha and 2.74 days (95%CrI 2.62-2.88) for Delta, and the estimated proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was 48-51% for both variants. These results indicate limited differences in the incubation period and intrinsic generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha and Delta compared to ancestral lineages

SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns in educational settings during the Alpha wave in Reggio-Emilia, Italy

: Different monitoring and control policies have been implemented in schools to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Transmission in schools has been hard to quantify due to the large proportion of asymptomatic carriers in young individuals. We applied a Bayesian approach to reconstruct the transmission chains between 284 SARS-CoV-2 infections ascertained during 87 school outbreak investigations conducted between March and April 2021 in Italy. Under the policy of reactive quarantines, we found that 42.5% (95%CrI: 29.5-54.3%) of infections among school attendees were caused by school contacts. The mean number of secondary cases infected at school by a positive individual during in-person education was estimated to be 0.33 (95%CrI: 0.23-0.43), with marked heterogeneity across individuals. Specifically, we estimated that only 26.0% (95%CrI: 17.6-34.1%) of students and school personnel who tested positive during in-person education caused at least one secondary infection at school. Positive individuals who attended school for at least 6 days before being isolated or quarantined infected on average 0.49 (95%CrI: 0.14-0.83) secondary cases. Our findings provide quantitative insights on the contribution of school transmission to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in young individuals. Identifying positive cases within 5 days after exposure to their infector could reduce onward transmission at school by at least 30%

Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Gamma variants in Italy, February and March 2021

Background. Several SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) have emerged through 2020 and 2021. There is need for tools to estimate the relative transmissibility of emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 with respect to circulating strains.AimWe aimed to assess the prevalence of co-circulating VOC in Italy and estimate their relative transmissibility.Methods. We conducted two genomic surveillance surveys on 18 February and 18 March 2021 across the whole Italian territory covering 3,243 clinical samples and developed a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of co-circulating strains.Results. The Alpha variant was already dominant on 18 February in a majority of regions/autonomous provinces (national prevalence: 54%) and almost completely replaced historical lineages by 18 March (dominant across Italy, national prevalence: 86%). We found a substantial proportion of the Gamma variant on 18 February, almost exclusively in central Italy (prevalence: 19%), which remained similar on 18 March. Nationally, the mean relative transmissibility of Alpha ranged at 1.55-1.57 times the level of historical lineages (95% CrI: 1.45-1.66). The relative transmissibility of Gamma varied according to the assumed degree of cross-protection from infection with other lineages and ranged from 1.12 (95% CrI: 1.03-1.23) with complete immune evasion to 1.39 (95% CrI: 1.26-1.56) for complete cross-protection.Conclusion. We assessed the relative advantage of competing viral strains, using a mathematical model assuming different degrees of cross-protection. We found substantial co-circulation of Alpha and Gamma in Italy. Gamma was not able to outcompete Alpha, probably because of its lower transmissibility

Algebraic Comparison of Partial Lists in Bioinformatics

The outcome of a functional genomics pipeline is usually a partial list of genomic features, ranked by their relevance in modelling biological phenotype in terms of a classification or regression model. Due to resampling protocols or just within a meta-analysis comparison, instead of one list it is often the case that sets of alternative feature lists (possibly of different lengths) are obtained. Here we introduce a method, based on the algebraic theory of symmetric groups, for studying the variability between lists ("list stability") in the case of lists of unequal length. We provide algorithms evaluating stability for lists embedded in the full feature set or just limited to the features occurring in the partial lists. The method is demonstrated first on synthetic data in a gene filtering task and then for finding gene profiles on a recent prostate cancer dataset

A Combined Study on the Use of the Child Behavior Checklist 1½–5 for Identifying Autism Spectrum Disorders at 18 Months

The capacity of the Child Behavior Checklist 1½–5 (CBCL 1½–5) to identify children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) at 18 months was tested on 37 children clinically referred for ASD and 46 children at elevated likelihood of developing ASD due to having an affected brother/sister. At 30 months the clinically referred children all received a confirmatory diagnosis, and 10 out of 46 siblings received a diagnosis of ASD. CBCL 1½-5 profiles were compared with a group of matched children with typical development (effect of cognitive level controlled for). The capacity of the CBCL 1½-5 DSM Oriented-Pervasive Developmental Problems scale to differentiate correctly between children diagnosed with ASD and children with typical development appeared dependent on group ascertainment methodology