5,919 research outputs found
A Bayesian Approach for Predicting with Polynomial RegresiĂłn of Unknown Degree.
This article presents a comparison of four methods to compute the posterior probabilities of the possible orders in polynomial regression models. These posterior probabilities are used for forecasting by using Bayesian model averaging. It is shown that Bayesian model averaging provides a closer relationship between the theoretical coverage of the high density predictive interval (HDPI) and the observed coverage than those corresponding to selecting the best model. The performance of the different procedures are illustrated with simulations and some known engineering data.
Mercury in the environs of the north slope of Alaska
The analysis of Greenland ice suggests that the flux of mercury from the continents
to the atmosphere has increased in recent times, perhaps partly as a result of the many of
man’s activities that effect an alteration of terrestrial surfaces. Upon the exposure of fresh
crustal matter, the natural outgassing of mercury vapor from the earth’s surface could be
enhanced.
Accordingly, mercury was measured in a variety of environmental materials gathered
from the North Slope of Alaska to provide background data prior to the anticipated increase
of activity in this environment. The materials were collected during the U. S. Coast Guard
WEBSEC 72-73 cruises as well as through the facilities provided by Naval Arctic Research
Laboratory in the spring of 1973.
The method of measurement depended upon radioactivation of mercury with neutrons
and the subsequent quantification of characteristic gamma radiations after radiochemical
purification.
Mercury concentrations in seawater at several locations in the vicinity of 151°W,
71°N averaged 20 parts per trillion. The waters from all stations east of this location showed
a significantly smaller concentration. This difference may relate to penetration o f Bering-
Chukchi Sea water into the southern Beaufort Sea to 151°W. Marine sediments on the shelf
and slope between 143°W and 153°W contained about 100 parts per billion mercury, except
for those on the continental shelf between Barter Island and the Canning River, where the
concentration was less than half this value. These results are consistent with sediment input
from the respective rivers when their mercury content and mineralogy are considered. The
mercury content of river waters was 18 ppt and in reasonable agreement with the average of
snow samples (13 ppt). The burden of mercury in plankton was 37 ppb.This work was supported by the office of Naval Research under grant N R 083-290
PhyloCSF: a comparative genomics method to distinguish protein-coding and non-coding regions
As high-throughput transcriptome sequencing provides evidence for novel transcripts in many species, there is a renewed need for accurate methods to classify small genomic regions as protein-coding or non-coding. We present PhyloCSF, a novel comparative genomics method that analyzes a multi-species nucleotide sequence alignment to determine whether it is likely to represent a conserved protein-coding region, based on a formal statistical comparison of phylogenetic codon models. We show that PhyloCSF's classification performance in 12-species _Drosophila_ genome alignments exceeds all other methods we compared in a previous study, and we provide a software implementation for use by the community. We anticipate that this method will be widely applicable as the transcriptomes of many additional species, tissues, and subcellular compartments are sequenced, particularly in the context of ENCODE and modENCODE
THE EFFECT OF IONS UPON THE RESPONSE OF SMOOTH MUSCLE TO COOLING
The slow tonic responses of the anterior byssus retractor of Mytilus edulis to rapid cooling were investigated by simultaneously recording tension and resting potential changes after soaking the muscle in banthine, a powerful neuromuscular blocking agent. The quantitative relations between the amount of cooling and the amount of associated depolarization necessary for contraction at various concentrations of potentiating potassium can be expressed in a family of curves. The plateaus of the curves for sea water and for potassium-free sea water were beneath the depolarization value necessary for contraction, so that it is clear that no amount of cooling with sea water alone or with potassium-free sea water would ever be effective. When the muscle is treated with subthreshold amounts of potassium and rapidly cooled in various concentrations of sodium ion and calcium ion, respectively, the sodium and calcium do not affect the amount of depolarization. Acetylcholine, in subthreshold amounts, has a potentiating effect, but, unlike potassium and cooling, acts through the nervous apparatus. Mytilus muscle will respond to cooling with tonic contraction whenever a critical threshold amount of depolarization is achieved. Cooling alone cannot trigger the contraction since it cannot bring about sufficient depolarization. Cooling can result in contraction, however, if used in conjunction with some other subthreshold depolarizing agent. Cooling affects the contractile mechanism by first causing membrane breakdown and depolarization
Generic Subsequence Matching Framework: Modularity, Flexibility, Efficiency
Subsequence matching has appeared to be an ideal approach for solving many
problems related to the fields of data mining and similarity retrieval. It has
been shown that almost any data class (audio, image, biometrics, signals) is or
can be represented by some kind of time series or string of symbols, which can
be seen as an input for various subsequence matching approaches. The variety of
data types, specific tasks and their partial or full solutions is so wide that
the choice, implementation and parametrization of a suitable solution for a
given task might be complicated and time-consuming; a possibly fruitful
combination of fragments from different research areas may not be obvious nor
easy to realize. The leading authors of this field also mention the
implementation bias that makes difficult a proper comparison of competing
approaches. Therefore we present a new generic Subsequence Matching Framework
(SMF) that tries to overcome the aforementioned problems by a uniform frame
that simplifies and speeds up the design, development and evaluation of
subsequence matching related systems. We identify several relatively separate
subtasks solved differently over the literature and SMF enables to combine them
in straightforward manner achieving new quality and efficiency. This framework
can be used in many application domains and its components can be reused
effectively. Its strictly modular architecture and openness enables also
involvement of efficient solutions from different fields, for instance
efficient metric-based indexes. This is an extended version of a paper
published on DEXA 2012.Comment: This is an extended version of a paper published on DEXA 201
Probabilities of good, marginal, and poor flying conditions for space shuttle ferry flights
Empirical probabilities are provided for good, marginal, and poor flying weather for ferrying the Space Shuttle Orbiter from Edwards AFB, California, to Kennedy Space Center, Florida, and from Edwards AFB to Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama. Results are given by month for each overall route plus segments of each route. The criteria for defining a day as good, marginal, or poor and the method of computing the relative frequencies and conditional probabilities for monthly reference periods are described
The Josephson heat interferometer
The Josephson effect represents perhaps the prototype of macroscopic phase
coherence and is at the basis of the most widespread interferometer, i.e., the
superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID). Yet, in analogy to
electric interference, Maki and Griffin predicted in 1965 that thermal current
flowing through a temperature-biased Josephson tunnel junction is a stationary
periodic function of the quantum phase difference between the superconductors.
The interplay between quasiparticles and Cooper pairs condensate is at the
origin of such phase-dependent heat current, and is unique to Josephson
junctions. In this scenario, a temperature-biased SQUID would allow heat
currents to interfere thus implementing the thermal version of the electric
Josephson interferometer. The dissipative character of heat flux makes this
coherent phenomenon not less extraordinary than its electric (non-dissipative)
counterpart. Albeit weird, this striking effect has never been demonstrated so
far. Here we report the first experimental realization of a heat
interferometer. We investigate heat exchange between two normal metal
electrodes kept at different temperatures and tunnel-coupled to each other
through a thermal `modulator' in the form of a DC-SQUID. Heat transport in the
system is found to be phase dependent, in agreement with the original
prediction. With our design the Josephson heat interferometer yields
magnetic-flux-dependent temperature oscillations of amplitude up to ~21 mK, and
provides a flux-to-temperature transfer coefficient exceeding ~ 60mK/Phi_0 at
235 mK [Phi_0 2* 10^(-15) Wb is the flux quantum]. Besides offering remarkable
insight into thermal transport in Josephson junctions, our results represent a
significant step toward phase-coherent mastering of heat in solid-state
nanocircuits, and pave the way to the design of novel-concept coherent
caloritronic devices.Comment: 4+ pages, 3 color figure
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