Population size influence on the efficiency of evolutionary algorithms to design water networks

[EN] The optimal sizing in water distribution networks (WDN) is of great interest because it allows the selection of alternative economical solutions that ensure design requirements at nodes (demands and pressure) and at lines (velocities). Among all the available design methodologies, this work analyzes those based on evolutionary algorithms (EAs). EAs are a combination of deterministic and random approaches, and the performance of the algorithm depends on the searching process. Each EA features specific parameters, and a proper calibration helps to reduce the randomness factor and improves the effectiveness of the search for minima. More specifically, the only common parameter to all techniques is the initial size of the random population (P). It is well known that population size should be large enough to guarantee the diversity of solutions and must grow with the number of decision variables. However, the larger the population size, the slower the convergence process. This work attempts to determine the population size that yields better solutions in less time. In order to get that, the work applies a method based on the concept of efficiency (E) of an algorithm. This efficiency relates the quality of the obtained solution with the computational effort that every EA requires to find the final design solution. This ratio E also represents an objective indicator to compare the performance of different algorithms applied to WDN optimization. The proposed methodology is applied to the pipe-sizing problem of three medium-sized benchmark networks, such as Hanoi, New York Tunnel and GoYang networks. Thus, from the currently available algorithms, this work includes evolutionary methodologies based on a Pseudo-Genetic Algorithm (PGA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Harmony Search (HS). First, the different algorithm parameters for each network are calibrated. The values used for every EA are those that have been calculated in previous works. Secondly, specific parameters remain constant and the population size is modified. After more than 500,000 simulations, the influence of the population size is statistically analyzed in the final solutions. Finally, the efficiency was analyzed for each network and algorithm. The results ensure the best possible configuration based on the quality of the solutions and the convergence speed of the algorithm, depending of the population size.Mora-Melia, D.; Martínez-Solano, FJ.; Iglesias Rey, PL.; Gutiérrez-Bahamondes, JH. (2017). Population size influence on the efficiency of evolutionary algorithms to design water networks. Procedia Engineering. 186:341-348. doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2017.03.209S34134818

Comparison of the Stability and Accuracy of Deterministic Project Cost Prediction Methods in Earned Value Management

[EN] Completing a project on time and on budget are essential factors for the success of any project. One technique that allows predicting the final cost of a project is earned value management (EVM). In this technique, different mathematical methods for predicting the final project cost have been proposed over the last 30 years. These formulas make use of activities¿ actual costs and durations as the project progresses. EVM is a technique widely used by many project management professionals. However, very few studies have compared the stability and accuracy of the multiple existing methods for predicting the final cost of the project (commonly abbreviated as estimated cost at completion, EAC). This study compares the stability and accuracy of 30 deterministic cost prediction methods (EAC) in EVM. For this purpose, a representative database of 4100 simulated projects of various topological structures is used. Our results suggest that the methods with the simplest mathematical configurations achieve better stability and accuracy performance. Knowing which EVM methods are the most stable and accurate for predicting the final cost of the project will help project practitioners choose the most reliable cost prediction techniques when they are managing their own projects in real contexts.This research was funded by the Program Fondecyt Regular, grant number 1210410. It was also funded by the Ministry of Universities (Spain) and the Program European Union Next Generation EU. The first author would like to thank the Universidad de Talca for his grant from the Programa de Doctorado en Sistemas de Ingeniería (RU-056-2019).Barrientos-Orellana, A.; Ballesteros-Pérez, P.; Mora-Meliá, D.; Cerezo-Narváez, A.; Gutiérrez-Bahamondes, JH. (2023). Comparison of the Stability and Accuracy of Deterministic Project Cost Prediction Methods in Earned Value Management. Buildings. 13(5). https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings1305120613

Pumping Station Design in Water Distribution Networks Considering the Optimal Flow Distribution between Sources and Capital and Operating Costs

[EN] The investment and operating costs of pumping stations in drinking water distribution networks are some of the highest public costs in urban sectors. Generally, these systems are designed based on extreme scenarios. However, in periods of normal operation, extra energy is produced, thereby generating excess costs. To avoid this problem, this work presents a new methodology for the design of pumping stations. The proposed technique is based on the use of a setpoint curve to optimize the operating and investment costs of a station simultaneously. According to this purpose, a novel mathematical optimization model is developed. The solution output by the model includes the selection of the pumps, the dimensions of pipelines, and the optimal flow distribution among all water sources for a given network. To demonstrate the advantages of using this technique, a case study network is presented. A pseudo-genetic algorithm (PGA) is implemented to resolve the optimization model. Finally, the obtained results show that it is possible to determine the full design and operating conditions required to achieve the lowest cost in a multiple pump station network.This work was supported by the Program Fondecyt Regular (Project N. 1210410) of the Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID), Chile. It is also supported by CONICYT PFCHA/DOCTORADO BECAS CHILE/2018-21182013.Gutiérrez-Bahamondes, JH.; Mora-Meliá, D.; Iglesias Rey, PL.; Martínez-Solano, FJ.; Salgueiro, Y. (2021). Pumping Station Design in Water Distribution Networks Considering the Optimal Flow Distribution between Sources and Capital and Operating Costs. Water. 13(21):1-14. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213098S114132

A Hybrid Algorithm of ML and XAI to Prevent Breast Cancer: A Strategy to Support Decision Making

Worldwide, the coronavirus has intensified the management problems of health services, significantly harming patients. Some of the most affected processes have been cancer patients’ prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Breast cancer is the most affected, with more than 20 million cases and at least 10 million deaths by 2020. Various studies have been carried out to support the management of this disease globally. This paper presents a decision support strategy for health teams based on machine learning (ML) tools and explainability algorithms (XAI). The main methodological contributions are: first, the evaluation of different ML algorithms that allow classifying patients with and without cancer from the available dataset; and second, an ML methodology mixed with an XAI algorithm, which makes it possible to predict the disease and interpret the variables and how they affect the health of patients. The results show that first, the XGBoost Algorithm has a better predictive capacity, with an accuracy of 0.813 for the train data and 0.81 for the test data; and second, with the SHAP algorithm, it is possible to know the relevant variables and their level of significance in the prediction, and to quantify the impact on the clinical condition of the patients, which will allow health teams to offer early and personalized alerts for each patient

Improving Water and Energy Resource Management: A Comparative Study of Solution Representations for the Pump Scheduling Optimization Problem

Water distribution networks (WDNs) are vital for communities, facing threats like climate change and aging infrastructure. Optimizing WDNs for energy and water savings is challenging due to their complexity. In particular, pump scheduling stands out as a fundamental tool for optimizing both resources. Metaheuristics such as evolutionary algorithms (EAs) offer promising solutions, yet encounter limitations in robustness, parameterization, and applicability to real-sized networks. The encoding of decision variables significantly influences algorithm efficiency, an aspect frequently overlooked in the literature. This study addresses this gap by comparing solution representations for a multiobjective pump scheduling problem. By assessing metrics such as execution time, convergence, and diversity, it identifies effective representations. Embracing a multiobjective approach enhances comprehension and solution robustness. Through empirical validation across case studies, this research contributes insights for the more efficient optimization of WDNs, tackling critical challenges in water and energy management. The results demonstrate significant variations in the performance of different solution representations used in the literature. In conclusion, this study not only provides perspectives on effective pump scheduling strategies but also aims to guide future researchers in selecting the most suitable representation for optimization problems

An Intelligent System for Patients’ Well-Being: A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach

The coronavirus pandemic has intensified the strain on medical care processes, especially waiting lists for patients under medical management. In Chile, the pandemic has caused an increase of 52,000 people waiting for care. For this reason, a high-complexity hospital (HCH) in Chile devised a decision support system (DSS) based on multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM), which combines management criteria, such as critical events, with clinical variables that allow prioritizing the population of chronic patients on the waiting list. The tool includes four methodological contributions: (1) pattern recognition through the analysis of anonymous patient data that allows critical patients to be characterized; (2) a score of the critical events suffered by the patients; (3) a score based on clinical criteria; and (4) a dynamic–hybrid methodology for patient selection that links critical events with clinical criteria and with the risk levels of patients on the waiting list. The methodology allowed to (1) characterize the most critical patients and triple the evaluation of medical records; (2) save medical hours during the prioritization process; (3) reduce the risk levels of patients on the waiting list; and (4) reduce the critical events in the first month of implementation, which could have been caused by the DSS and medical decision-making. This strategy was effective (even during a pandemic period)

Infeasibility Maps: Application to the Optimization of the Design of Pumping Stations in Water Distribution Networks

The design of pumping stations in a water distribution network determines the investment costs and affects a large part of the operating costs of the network. In recent years, it was shown that it is possible to use flow distribution to optimize both costs concurrently; however, the methodologies proposed in the literature are not applicable to real-sized networks. In these cases, the space of solutions is huge, a small number of feasible solutions exists, and each evaluation of the objective function implies significant computational effort. To avoid this gap, a new method was proposed to reduce the search space in the problem of pumping station design. This method was based on network preprocessing to determine in advance the maximum and minimum flow that each pump station could provide. According to this purpose, the area of infeasibility is limited by ranges of the decision variable where it is impossible to meet the hydraulic constraints of the model. This area of infeasibility is removed from the search space with which the algorithm works. To demonstrate the benefits of using the new technique, a new real-sized case study was presented, and a pseudo-genetic algorithm (PGA) was implemented to resolve the optimization model. Finally, the results show great improvement in PGA performance, both in terms of the speed of convergence and quality of the solution