Adoption of bovine somatotropin in the United States and implications for international trade of dairy products : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Agricultural Economics, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

Advancements in biotechnology have led to some of the most important changes in agriculture in this century. The development of synthetic bovine Somatotropin, a hormone which increases milk production from dairy cows, may have a significant impact on the dairy industry in the near future. While bovine Somatotropin, or bST, has been widely studied, its potential impacts, both on milk production and on the economics of the dairy industry, remain controversial. At this time, bST has not been approved for use in any of the developed countries. It appears that, for a variety of reasons, the United States would be the most likely to approve bST in the near future. If bST is approved in the us, and widely adopted by American farmers, it could increase milk production in the US significantly, although the exact magnitude of its effects are difficult to determine at this time. Another important factor in determining US milk production is the US government's dairy policy. The policy for 1991-1995 is contained in the recently passed 1990 Farm Bill. The dairy provisions in the 1990 Farm Bill will maintain the current support price for milk at its current level, regardless of how large dairy surpluses become. Together, the increase in milk production from bST along with a guaranteed minimum support price could lead to significant surpluses of dairy products in the US by 1995. Since the US has traditionally sold its dairy surpluses on the international market at subsidised prices, or simply given them away as food aid, a large increase in US surpluses could have a great impact on the international dairy market. Furthermore, because the 1990 Farm Bill was only passed recently, no studies have yet been published which address the impact of bST under the current policy environment or what effect this would have on the world dairy market. The objective of this study is to empirically estimate the impact of bST on us production, and determine the implications for international trade of dairy products. A five equation quarterly econometric model of the US dairy industry is used to forecast US production through 1995. Then the effects of bST use are incorporated into the model. The results show that if bST is adopted in the US as assumed, by 1995 surpluses of dairy products could rise to as much as 12 billion pounds. This surplus would be nearly as large as the record surpluses of the early 1980's, which caused unprecedented disturbances to the international dairy market. Thus, use of bST in the US could significantly increase the excess supply of dairy products in the world, and thereby lower prices, especially of butter and skim milk powder. New Zealand would be particularly vulnerable to any price reductions on the world dairy market. The European Community, which is the largest exporter of dairy products, may have to increase its own export subsidies to compete against the US. This, in itself could lead to even further turmoil in the world market

drainage, drainage, DRAINAGE Creating Natural Disasters In Southeastern Nebraska

In May 1950 the Little Nemaha River valley in the southeastern quadrant of Nebraska suffered a record-breaking flood. For a short time at the town of Syracuse, the Little Nemaha River, which drained a watershed of 218 square miles, had an estimated discharge of 225,000 cubic feet per second. This was larger than any flood recorded since 1928 on the Missouri River at Omaha, which drained a watershed of 322,000 square miles! During this storm and flood twenty-three people lost their lives, fourteen in the Little Nemaha Valley. As night came on, floodwaters swept a commercial bus off a highway northwest of Syracuse; only three of nine in the bus would survive. A young mother and father had their two infant sons torn from their arms as they abandoned their automobile on a nearby minor tributary. At daybreak, sixty miles downriver at Auburn, a family of four on their way to a funeral in Kansas had their car stall out on an approach to a bridge over the Little Nemaha. Witnesses saw the waters take them one by one. These deaths were only the most visible manifestations of the disaster. Homes, businesses, vehicles, and domestic livestock were lost. Sloping fields on uplands lost topsoil in depths up to the plow sole ; fields down on the flood plain would be covered at places by five feet of thi~ topsoil. Railroads, bridges, and roads suffered severe damage. People were stranded in attics as their houses floated downstream; some spent horrifying hours lodged high up in trees, hoping floating debris would miss them. One family between Syracuse and Auburn was barely able to remain safe for seven hours on the tiny island that was the roof of their pickup truck. 2 It was a situation way beyond human control. Most people would consider it a clear example of natural disaster. Here I examine the history of flooding on the Little Nemaha as a case study of human relationships to a common form of natural hazard. Through the history of human responses to a particular river in flood, I also seek understanding of the variety of human roles in creating natural disaster out of this common hazard of flooding. Natural hazards exist when humans have made themselves vulnerable to nature\u27s forces. As I am using the term, natural disaster refers to the situation after the hazard has fulfilled its potentiality, that is, after natural forces have negatively impacted humans. The Little Nemaha affords a useful vehicle for studying these relationships because of its history of repeated flooding. The record-breaking 1950 flood is not important simply as a case of an extreme natural event. It derives part of its instructive power for us (and for Syracuse residents) because people expended such effort protecting themselves from flooding. The lesson residents might have taken from the event was that they could ill afford to ignore a river\u27s natural propensity to flood. Had they considered this carefully, it might have challenged their confidence in the adequacy of using technology to reengineer natural processes. NATURAL DISASTERS Human complicity in a natural hazard, while being a cause, is also a result; it arises from something else. I argue that one type of natural disaster followed from basic human perceptions toward, and use of, nature. Floods do not start without unusually intense or prolonged precipitation (discounting dam breaks). The record-breaking 1950 Syracuse flood followed from extraordinary (though not record) rainfall amounts on two watersheds that converged on Syracuse at the same time. Other floods on this river also began with good rains, and, in fact, some storms on the river have had greater total amounts, and higher rates of precipitation, than during this flood. While southeast Nebraska is primarily rural without large centers of population, the people who do live in the Little Nemaha Valley have made themselves particularly vulnerable. They have done so through both their settlement patterns (living in a flood plain) and land usage (farming row crops on marginal prairie land). Unfortunately, in arriving at causation for natural disaster, a model of natural disaster as an extreme environmental event meeting a vulnerable human population (as a function of size or usage) is not quite complete. An entry here may be through the phrase nature is neutral. Is it not the point that for humans nature is not neutral? It is not neutral on two sides of our event. Nature created conditions which humans found attractive: rich farmland on flood plains and amenable transportation route possibilities. This is not a perceived neutral nature, it is a beneficent nature. And what of the event itself? During or after a flood, nature is anything but neutral. Humans often perceive it as a malevolent force. Nature is an entity divorced from its beneficent aspect in human perception. It calls for responses both immediate and long term. And the repeated experience of flooding in Southeastern Nebraska brought changes in human responses. But the responses also fell within carefully circumscribed limits. I would contend that the inhabitants\u27 responses flowed from their basic perceptions toward, and use of, nature

drainage, drainage, DRAINAGE Creating Natural Disasters In Southeastern Nebraska

In May 1950 the Little Nemaha River valley in the southeastern quadrant of Nebraska suffered a record-breaking flood. For a short time at the town of Syracuse, the Little Nemaha River, which drained a watershed of 218 square miles, had an estimated discharge of 225,000 cubic feet per second. This was larger than any flood recorded since 1928 on the Missouri River at Omaha, which drained a watershed of 322,000 square miles! During this storm and flood twenty-three people lost their lives, fourteen in the Little Nemaha Valley. As night came on, floodwaters swept a commercial bus off a highway northwest of Syracuse; only three of nine in the bus would survive. A young mother and father had their two infant sons torn from their arms as they abandoned their automobile on a nearby minor tributary. At daybreak, sixty miles downriver at Auburn, a family of four on their way to a funeral in Kansas had their car stall out on an approach to a bridge over the Little Nemaha. Witnesses saw the waters take them one by one. These deaths were only the most visible manifestations of the disaster. Homes, businesses, vehicles, and domestic livestock were lost. Sloping fields on uplands lost topsoil in depths up to the plow sole ; fields down on the flood plain would be covered at places by five feet of thi~ topsoil. Railroads, bridges, and roads suffered severe damage. People were stranded in attics as their houses floated downstream; some spent horrifying hours lodged high up in trees, hoping floating debris would miss them. One family between Syracuse and Auburn was barely able to remain safe for seven hours on the tiny island that was the roof of their pickup truck. 2 It was a situation way beyond human control. Most people would consider it a clear example of natural disaster. Here I examine the history of flooding on the Little Nemaha as a case study of human relationships to a common form of natural hazard. Through the history of human responses to a particular river in flood, I also seek understanding of the variety of human roles in creating natural disaster out of this common hazard of flooding. Natural hazards exist when humans have made themselves vulnerable to nature\u27s forces. As I am using the term, natural disaster refers to the situation after the hazard has fulfilled its potentiality, that is, after natural forces have negatively impacted humans. The Little Nemaha affords a useful vehicle for studying these relationships because of its history of repeated flooding. The record-breaking 1950 flood is not important simply as a case of an extreme natural event. It derives part of its instructive power for us (and for Syracuse residents) because people expended such effort protecting themselves from flooding. The lesson residents might have taken from the event was that they could ill afford to ignore a river\u27s natural propensity to flood. Had they considered this carefully, it might have challenged their confidence in the adequacy of using technology to reengineer natural processes. NATURAL DISASTERS Human complicity in a natural hazard, while being a cause, is also a result; it arises from something else. I argue that one type of natural disaster followed from basic human perceptions toward, and use of, nature. Floods do not start without unusually intense or prolonged precipitation (discounting dam breaks). The record-breaking 1950 Syracuse flood followed from extraordinary (though not record) rainfall amounts on two watersheds that converged on Syracuse at the same time. Other floods on this river also began with good rains, and, in fact, some storms on the river have had greater total amounts, and higher rates of precipitation, than during this flood. While southeast Nebraska is primarily rural without large centers of population, the people who do live in the Little Nemaha Valley have made themselves particularly vulnerable. They have done so through both their settlement patterns (living in a flood plain) and land usage (farming row crops on marginal prairie land). Unfortunately, in arriving at causation for natural disaster, a model of natural disaster as an extreme environmental event meeting a vulnerable human population (as a function of size or usage) is not quite complete. An entry here may be through the phrase nature is neutral. Is it not the point that for humans nature is not neutral? It is not neutral on two sides of our event. Nature created conditions which humans found attractive: rich farmland on flood plains and amenable transportation route possibilities. This is not a perceived neutral nature, it is a beneficent nature. And what of the event itself? During or after a flood, nature is anything but neutral. Humans often perceive it as a malevolent force. Nature is an entity divorced from its beneficent aspect in human perception. It calls for responses both immediate and long term. And the repeated experience of flooding in Southeastern Nebraska brought changes in human responses. But the responses also fell within carefully circumscribed limits. I would contend that the inhabitants\u27 responses flowed from their basic perceptions toward, and use of, nature

Poseidon American Society of Civil Engineers/Master Builders Rocky Mountain Regional Concrete Canoe Competition

The concrete canoe team has been selected in behalf of the Utah State University Student Chapter of the American Society of Civil Engineers to prepare an entry for the 1998 ASCE Rocky Mountain Regional Concrete Canoe Competition. This event is co-sponsored by the American Society of Civil Engineers and Master Builders, Inc., and has become a tradition at annual ASCE regional conferences nationwide

Effect of Preventive Primary Care Outreach on Health Related Quality of Life Among Older Adults at Risk of Functional Decline: Randomised Controlled Trial

Objective: To evaluate the impact of a provider initiated primary care outreach intervention compared with usual care among older adults at risk of functional decline. Design: Randomised controlled trial. Setting: Patients enrolled with 35 family physicians in five primary care networks in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. Participants: Patients were eligible if they were 75 years of age or older and were not receiving home care services. Of 3166 potentially eligible patients, 2662 (84%) completed the validated postal questionnaire used to determine risk of functional decline. Of 1724 patients who met the risk criteria, 769 (45%) agreed to participate and 719 were randomised. Intervention: The 12 month intervention, provided by experienced home care nurses in 2004-6, consisted of a comprehensive initial assessment using the resident assessment instrument for home care; collaborative care planning with patients, their families, and family physicians; health promotion; and referral to community health and social support services. Main outcome measures: Quality adjusted life years (QALYs), use and costs of health and social services, functional status, self rated health, and mortality. Results: The mean difference in QALYs between intervention and control patients during the study period was not statistically significant (0.017, 95% confidence interval ?0.022 to 0.056; P=0.388). The mean difference in overall cost of prescription drugs and services between the intervention and control groups was not statistically significant, (-$C165 (£107; 118;$162), 95% confidence interval -$C16 545 to$$16 214; P=0.984). Changes over 12 months in functional status and self rated health were not significantly different between the intervention and control groups. Ten patients died in each group. Conclusions: The results of this study do not support adoption of this preventive primary care intervention for this target population of high risk older adults

Bilateral National Metrology Institute Comparison of Guarded-Hot-Plate Apparatus

Two national metrology institutes have conducted an international interlaboratory comparison on thermal conductivity for two thermal insulation reference materials. The Laboratoire national de métrologie et d’essais (LNE), France, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), United States, present measurements obtained by the guarded-hot-plate method. The study involved two materials: expanded polystyrene board (EPS) and fibrous glass board (FGB). The EPS was provided by the LNE and is issued as a transfer specimen; the FGB provided by NIST was issued as Standard Reference Material (SRM) 1450c. For each reference material, the study was based on four independent measurements at a mean temperature of 24°C and two additional mean temperatures of 10°C and 35°C