Making predictions in the multiverse

I describe reasons to think we are living in an eternally inflating multiverse where the observable "constants" of nature vary from place to place. The major obstacle to making predictions in this context is that we must regulate the infinities of eternal inflation. I review a number of proposed regulators, or measures. Recent work has ruled out a number of measures by showing that they conflict with observation, and focused attention on a few proposals. Further, several different measures have been shown to be equivalent. I describe some of the many nontrivial tests these measures will face as we learn more from theory, experiment, and observation.Comment: 20 pages, 3 figures; invited review for Classical and Quantum Gravity; v2: references improve

Many worlds in one

A generic prediction of inflation is that the thermalized region we inhabit is spatially infinite. Thus, it contains an infinite number of regions of the same size as our observable universe, which we shall denote as \O-regions. We argue that the number of possible histories which may take place inside of an \O-region, from the time of recombination up to the present time, is finite. Hence, there are an infinite number of \O-regions with identical histories up to the present, but which need not be identical in the future. Moreover, all histories which are not forbidden by conservation laws will occur in a finite fraction of all \O-regions. The ensemble of \O-regions is reminiscent of the ensemble of universes in the many-world picture of quantum mechanics. An important difference, however, is that other \O-regions are unquestionably real.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures, comments and references adde

A prescription for probabilities in eternal inflation

Some of the parameters we call ``constants of Nature'' may in fact be variables related to the local values of some dynamical fields. During inflation, these variables are randomized by quantum fluctuations. In cases when the variable in question (call it $\chi$) takes values in a continuous range, all thermalized regions in the universe are statistically equivalent, and a gauge invariant procedure for calculating the probability distribution for $\chi$ is known. This is the so-called ``spherical cutoff method''. In order to find the probability distribution for $\chi$ it suffices to consider a large spherical patch in a single thermalized region. Here, we generalize this method to the case when the range of $\chi$ is discontinuous and there are several different types of thermalized region. We first formulate a set of requirements that any such generalization should satisfy, and then introduce a prescription that meets all the requirements. We finally apply this prescription to calculate the relative probability for different bubble universes in the open inflation scenario.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure

Towards a gauge invariant volume-weighted probability measure for eternal inflation

An improved volume-weighted probability measure for eternal inflation is proposed. For the models studied in this paper it leads to simple and intuitively expected gauge-invariant results.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figs, few misprints corrected, comments adde

The Cold Big-Bang Cosmology as a Counter-example to Several Anthropic Arguments

A general Friedmann big-bang cosmology can be specified by fixing a half-dozen cosmological parameters such as the photon-to-baryon ratio Eta, the cosmological constant Lambda, the curvature scale R, and the amplitude Q of (assumed scale-invariant) primordial density fluctuations. There is currently no established theory as to why these parameters take the particular values we deduce from observations. This has led to proposed `anthropic' explanations for the observed value of each parameter, as the only value capable of generating a universe that can host intelligent life. In this paper, I explicitly show that the requirement that the universe generates sun-like stars with planets does not fix these parameters, by developing a class of cosmologies (based on the classical `cold big-bang' model) in which some or all of the cosmological parameters differ by orders of magnitude from the values they assume in the standard hot big-bang cosmology, without precluding in any obvious way the existence of intelligent life. I also give a careful discussion of the structure and context of anthropic arguments in cosmology, and point out some implications of the cold big-bang model's existence for anthropic arguments concerning specific parameters.Comment: 13 PRD-style pages, 2 postscript figures. Reference 26 corrected. Accepted to Phys. Rev.

What does inflation really predict?

If the inflaton potential has multiple minima, as may be expected in, e.g., the string theory "landscape", inflation predicts a probability distribution for the cosmological parameters describing spatial curvature (Omega_tot), dark energy (rho_Lambda, w, etc.), the primordial density fluctuations (Omega_tot, dark energy (rho_Lambda, w, etc.). We compute this multivariate probability distribution for various classes of single-field slow-roll models, exploring its dependence on the characteristic inflationary energy scales, the shape of the potential V and and the choice of measure underlying the calculation. We find that unless the characteristic scale Delta-phi on which V varies happens to be near the Planck scale, the only aspect of V that matters observationally is the statistical distribution of its peaks and troughs. For all energy scales and plausible measures considered, we obtain the predictions Omega_tot ~ 1+-0.00001, w=-1 and rho_Lambda in the observed ballpark but uncomfortably high. The high energy limit predicts n_s ~ 0.96, dn_s/dlnk ~ -0.0006, r ~ 0.15 and n_t ~ -0.02, consistent with observational data and indistinguishable from eternal phi^2-inflation. The low-energy limit predicts 5 parameters but prefers larger Q and redder n_s than observed. We discuss the coolness problem, the smoothness problem and the pothole paradox, which severely limit the viable class of models and measures. Our findings bode well for detecting an inflationary gravitational wave signature with future CMB polarization experiments, with the arguably best-motivated single-field models favoring the detectable level r ~ 0.03. (Abridged)Comment: Replaced to match accepted JCAP version. Improved discussion, references. 42 pages, 17 fig

Black Hole Lasers Revisited

The production of Hawking radiation by a single horizon is not dependent on the high-frequency dispersion relation of the radiated field. When there are two horizons, however, Corley and Jacobson have shown that superluminal dispersion leads to an amplification of the particle production in the case of bosons. The analytic theory of this "black hole laser" process is quite complicated, so we provide some numerical results in the hope of aiding understanding of this interesting phenomenon. Specifically, we consider sonic horizons in a moving fluid. The theory of elementary excitations in a Bose-Einstein condensate provides an example of "superluminal" (Bogoliubov) dispersion, so we add Bogoliubov dispersion to Unruh's equation for sound in the fluid. A white-hole/black-hole horizon pair will then display black hole lasing. Numerical analysis of the evolution of a wave packet gives a clear picture of the amplification process. By utilizing the similarity of a radiating horizon to a parametric amplifier in quantum optics we also analyze the black hole laser as a quantum-optical network.Comment: 16 page