Whose job instability affects the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy? A tale of two partners

We examine the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy taking into account the employment (in)stability of both partners in a couple. We use data from four waves of the Italian section of the EU-SILC (Statistics on Income and Living Condition), 2004-2007, accounting for its longitudinal nature. Overall, our results suggest that Italian couples are neither fully traditional nor entirely modern: the "first pillar" (i.e., a male partner with a stable and well-paid job) is still crucial in directing fertility decisions, because, in our interpretation, it gives the household a feeling of (relative) economic security. But this "old" family typology is becoming rare. Increasingly, both partners are employed, and in this case the characteristics of their employment prove important. A permanent occupation for both partners is associated with higher fertility, while alternative job typologies for either of the two depress fertility.employment instability, first birth, income, Italy

On the evolution of household income

We present a markovian homogeneous model that mimics the evolution of household income. With three parameters only, the model generates a set of theoretical curves that closely fit actual income distributions, as observed in 19 advanced economies in the period 1967-2004. The fit is better, and theoretically more consistent, than that obtained with other models customarily used in the literature, for instance log-normal or power-law models

Lifelong Disadvantage and Late Adulthood Frailty

Frailty is a complex state of objective and subjective vulnerability. It tends to increase with age, but the process is influenced by previous life course, especially previous disadvantages. The aim of this paper is to examine how the disadvantages suffered in adulthood (25 to 59 years) in four domains (unemployment, financial hardship, stress, and bad health) affect frailty in late adulthood (60 to 79 years). Using linear regression models on data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (2004–2017), we estimate frailty levels for several age groups (60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79) accounting for both the persistence of these disadvantages over time and their coexistence, i.e., the number of years when they were simultaneously experienced. Results show that while frailty increases with age, as expected, there is also evidence of an accumulation of risks: the longer the periods of adult life affected by unemployment, stress, financial hardship or, most importantly, bad health, the frailer individuals are in their late years. Furthermore, periods of coexisting disadvantages in adulthood translate into additional frailty in late life. Our findings highlight the importance of fighting disadvantages early in life: long-term improvements in terms of reduced frailty (a concept interrelated with health) may be substantial

Il Sistema previdenziale pubblico tra vincoli e scelte

Social security systems are in crisis almost everywhere in the world, partly due to the bad management from the past, especially far back in time, and partly due to their intrinsic characteristics, which were not always well understood by those who designed them, and even less so by those who subsequently intervened to change them. However, removing the many layers that have gradually been added to the debate, it seems possible to focus on the few, truly relevant variables about the issue, to separate the political choices from the exogenous variables (the constraints), to bring out the consequences of the different possible choices in the long and short run, and thus to contribute to safeguarding one of the cornerstones the modern social state, even if it is downsized in the process. In doing so, it also seems appropriate to clarify the compromise point that is intended to be pursued between actuarial equity and redistribution, two unfortunately incompatible, but still very relevant goals, which have always (confusingly) been present in the debate on the social security systems