Choosing the best of both worlds

The great crested newt (Triturus cristatus) is dependent on two environments for its survival: the aquatic habitat necessary for breeding and development, and the terrestrial habitat required for post-breeding and juvenile activities. For a population to be able to survive in a landscape, both habitat types must be present within migration distance from each other. The overall aim of this thesis is to find and describe prerequisites of environments and landscapes that make them sufficient as habitats for the great crested newt. The purpose is also to present the results in a conservation perspective and to discuss them in relation to practical examples. In five separate studies, performed in Örebro County, south-central Sweden, the aquatic and terrestrial habitats of the species were examined. The first study examined aquatic plants in a variety of ponds and landscapes, to determine if the diversity of plant species was higher in ponds where great crested newts were present. I found that ponds with newts had a significantly higher mean number of plant species than ponds without the species. The second study focused on the question if there are chemical and physical characteristics that determine occurrence of great crested newts. The results showed that temperature and nutrient levels (nitrogen and phosphorus) were important in distinguishing between ponds with and without newts, whereas other physical variables were less important. My results also suggest that the great crested newt selects ponds with low nutrient levels for breeding, while the species may also be present in ponds with higher nutrient levels. The third study used radio-telemetry in an attempt to determine how the great crested newt moved in its terrestrial habitat and which micro-habitats it used while the focal point of study four was the landscape and if landscape composition may predict use of ponds as aquatic habitats. Combined, studies three and four suggest that management of the species should to a greater extent include terrestrial habitat, with special attention given to older, deciduous-rich forest within approximately 200 m of breeding ponds. The aim of the last study was to describe and evaluate a project concerning translocation of a great crested newt population. I point out the necessity of long-term monitoring to distinguish any possible success with respect to site sustainability and population size

Process, People, Power and Conflict: Some Lessons from a Participatory Policy Process in Andhra Pradesh, India

A large body of empirical literature highlights the need for stakeholder participation within the context of policy change and democratic governance. This makes intuitive sense and may appear to be a straightforward process of managing conflicting interests, building consensus, and lining up support. The reality, however, is often much more complicated and conflictive, even where there is general agreement on the policy objectives. The present paper examines these issues in the context of participatory policy development for the delivery of veterinary services by para-professionals in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. It illustrates the challenges inherent in the politics of participatory policy processes and the potential of ‘agenda hijack’ by influential partners, resulting in missed learning opportunities. It also offers insights on practical steps to counter these dangers, as potential lessons for practitioners and project managers engaged in participatory policy reform processes.

Combining Consumer Valuation Research with Sensory Science Techniques: A Laboratory Experiment

In this research, we integrated an experimental auction with sensory science techniques—namely, trained sensory panels used to analyze the sensory attributes of wines—to examine the effects of objective and sensory information in the market for California-produced Cabernet Sauvignons. The experiment permitted observation of consumer valuation for sensory attributes of wine, appellations, expert ratings, and wineries. Participants submitted bids each time they received new information about the wines. The balanced experimental design permits evaluation of the effects of consumer characteristics on attribute valuation. We had 236 people participate in the research, which consisted of nine rounds of bidding and one round of hedonic liking scores. Rounds 5-9 repeated the structure of information released in rounds 1-4, but added sensory information, yielding 472 observations for each type of information (e.g. appellation, expert rating, winery). We obtain a total of 8496 valuations, or bids and 944 hedonic “liking” ratings, as well as demographic information, wine consumption data, and a wine knowledge score for each consumer. The results of the research agree with many of the previously held notions about valuation of wine by consumers. Participants value Cabernet Sauvignons from Napa Valley and Sonoma County and their sub-appellations more than wines labeled with the California appellation. Bids for wines rated by experts such as the Wine Advocate (Robert Parker) or Wine Spectator increased as the experts’ ratings increased. However, we also find that consumer characteristics are very important in explaining WTP for wine attributes. The contributions of prestigious appellations to the value of Cabernet Sauvignons depended on consumer characteristics. Willingness to pay was highly correlated with sensory evaluation, but even after tasting the wine, appellation and expert ratings still mattered for WTP. Overall, the research describes a significant amount of heterogeneity in the preferences for sensory characteristics of wine, and that individual characteristics systematically explain many of the differences in valuation of wine attributes.Experimental Economics, Willingness to Pay, WTP, Wine, Consumer Valuation, Hedonic Pricing, Sensory Analysis, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Partial identification for discrete data with nonignorable missing outcomes

Nonignorable missing outcomes are common in real world datasets and often require strong parametric assumptions to achieve identification. These assumptions can be implausible or untestable, and so we may forgo them in favour of partially identified models that narrow the set of a priori possible values to an identification region. Here we propose a new nonparametric Bayes method that allows for the incorporation of multiple clinically relevant restrictions of the parameter space simultaneously. We focus on two common restrictions, instrumental variables and the direction of missing data bias, and investigate how these restrictions narrow the identification region for parameters of interest. Additionally, we propose a rejection sampling algorithm that allows us to quantify the evidence for these assumptions in the data. We compare our method to a standard Heckman selection model in both simulation studies and in an applied problem examining the effectiveness of cash-transfers for people experiencing homelessness.Comment: 43 pages, 4 figures, 4 table

Collisional and dynamic evolution of dust from the asteroid belt

The size and spatial distribution of collisional debris from main belt asteroids is modeled over a 10 million year period. The model dust and meteoroid particles spiral toward the Sun under the action of Poynting-Robertson drag and grind down as they collide with a static background of field particles

Self-consistent optimization of the zz-Expansion for BB meson decays

We discuss the self-consistency imposed by the analyticity of regular parts of form factors, appearing in the $z$-expansion for semileptonic $B$-meson decays, when fitted in different kinematic regions. Relying on the uniqueness of functions defined by analytic continuation, we propose four metrics which measure the departure from the ideal analytic self-consistency. We illustrate the process using Belle data for $B\rightarrow D\ell \nu_\ell$. For this specific example, the metrics provide consistent indications that some choices (order of truncation, BGL or BCL) made in the form of the $z$-expansion can be optimized. However, other choices ($z$-origin, location of isolated poles and threshold constraints) appear to have very little effect on these metrics. We briefly discuss the implication for optimization of the $z$-expansion for nucleon form factors relevant for neutrino oscillation experiments

Economic Stress in Self-Determination Challenges

This dissertation analyzes the motivations and consequences of behaviors undertaken by actors engaged in self-determination challenges. Self-determination movements (SDMs) are characterized by their long-term aspirations for self-rule, but they are also motivated by short term fluctuations in their environments. I argue that economic stress shapes self-determination challenges in complex ways. The state of the economy influences how movements behave, how governments respond to groups making claims, and how public audiences signal support for violent tactics. I clarify the patterns of behavior between movements, states, and individuals by exploring how economic stress and violence by groups and governments affect these actors’ preferences and decisions. The first substantive chapter seeks to explain SDMs’ use of violent versus nonviolent tactics. Movements increasingly engage in anti government violence when their individual members become willing to use violent tactics. The value of the status quo for each individual within a SDM is partially determined by economic stress factors such as the unemployment rate and food price within a country. Additionally, government repression in times of poor economic conditions compounds on top of previous grievances and alters individuals’ strategic calculus, leading them to pursue violent tactics. I test my expectations using an original dataset of self-determination movements in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2000-2014, finding strong support for the economic determinants of violence and limited support for the repression hypothesis. In the second chapter, I explore the conditions under which governments use violent repression against SDMs. When a state encounters a self-determination challenge, it faces an important decision about how to respond to anti-government actions. On one hand, governments can use repression to attempt to quell movements and deter future dissent. On the other hand, repression can radicalize SDM members and cause the challengers to escalate from nonviolent contention to violence. I model the interaction between a government and SDM to show the conditions under which government repression spurs the movement to escalate to violence. Analysis of an original dataset of SDM events in Africa from 2000-2014 supports the hypothesis that governments use observed economic indicators of cost-tolerance to determine whether or not to use violent repression. Finally, the third chapter considers the conditions under which individuals signal support for political violence in states experiencing self-determination challenges. I argue that individuals will be more likely to signal support for political violence when they experience economic stress and observe government repression. However, the degree to which individuals perceive antigovernment movements as blameworthy moderates the effects of these sources of grievance. I test my expectations using survey data from the Afrobarometer, an original dataset of SDM events, and general opposition events in Africa. The analysis supports the expectation that individual grievances increase public support for antigovernment violence, but only when opposition groups use violent tactics infrequently. With these three chapters, I demonstrate that economic stress factors consistently impacts the actor behavior in self-determination challenges.Doctor of Philosoph

Peace to Violence: Explaining the Violent Escalation of Nonviolent Demonstrations

Under what conditions do nonviolent demonstrations escalate to violence? I answer this question using a novel theory of individual preference formation in protests that begin peacefully. Rather than considering protest groups as unitary actors, I present a theory of collective action in which a group's decision is the product of a probabilistic aggregation of individual preferences. I argue that individuals involved in a nonviolent demonstration use the immediacy of their needs and the sustainability of collective action to decide whether or not to initiate violence against the state. Specifically, I hypothesize that the likelihood of violent escalation will increase when the relative food price is high, a demonstration is rural, and the event is spontaneous. An analysis of nonviolent demonstrations in Africa and Latin America largely supports my expectations.Master of Art