Rose Marie

https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mmb-vp/6133/thumbnail.jp

Analysis of risk scores to predict mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery for endocarditis

Fundamento: Escores de risco estão disponíveis para uso na prática clínica diária, mas saber qual deles escolher é ainda incerto. Objetivos: Avaliar o EuroSCORE logístico, o EuroSCORE II e os escores específicos para endocardite infecciosa STSIE, PALSUSE, AEPEI, EndoSCORE e RISK-E na predição de mortalidade hospitalar de pacientes submetidos à cirurgia cardíaca por endocardite ativa em um hospital terciário de ensino do sul do Brasil. Métodos: Estudo de coorte retrospectivo incluindo todos os pacientes com idade ≥ 18 anos submetidos à cirurgia cardíaca por endocardite ativa no centro do estudo entre 2007 e 2016. Foram realizadas análises de calibração (razão de mortalidade observada/esperada, O/E) e de discriminação (área sob a curva ROC, ASC), sendo a comparação das ASC realizada pelo teste de DeLong. P < 0,05 foi considerado estatisticamente significativo Resultados: Foram incluídos 107 pacientes, sendo a mortalidade hospitalar de 29,0% (IC95%: 20.4-37.6%). A melhor razão de mortalidade O/E foi obtida pelo escore PALSUSE (1,01, IC95%: 0,70-1,42), seguido pelo EuroSCORE logístico (1,3, IC95%: 0,92-1,87). O EuroSCORE logístico apresentou o maior poder discriminatório (ASC 0,77), significativamente superior ao EuroSCORE II (p = 0,03), STS-IE (p = 0,03), PALSUSE (p = 0,03), AEPEI (p = 0,03) e RISK-E (p = 0,02). Conclusões: Apesar da disponibilidade dos recentes escores específicos, o EuroSCORE logístico foi o melhor preditor de mortalidade em nossa coorte, considerando-se análise de calibração (mortalidade O/E: 1,3) e de discriminação (ASC 0,77). A validação local dos escores específicos é necessária para uma melhor avaliação do risco cirúrgico.Background: Risk scores are available for use in daily clinical practice, but knowing which one to choose is still fraught with uncertainty. Objectives: To assess the logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II, and the infective endocarditis (IE)-specific scores STS-IE, PALSUSE, AEPEI, EndoSCORE and RISK-E, as predictors of hospital mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery for active IE at a tertiary teaching hospital in Southern Brazil. Methods: Retrospective cohort study including all patients aged ≥ 18 years who underwent cardiac surgery for active IE at the study facility from 2007-2016. The scores were assessed by calibration evaluation (observed/expected [O/E] mortality ratio) and discrimination (area under the ROC curve [AUC]). Comparison of AUC was performed by the DeLong test. A p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: A total of 107 patients were included. Overall hospital mortality was 29.0% (95%CI: 20.4-37.6%). The best O/E mortality ratio was achieved by the PALSUSE score (1.01, 95%CI: 0.70-1.42), followed by the logistic EuroSCORE (1.3, 95%CI: 0.92-1.87). The logistic EuroSCORE had the highest discriminatory power (AUC 0.77), which was significantly superior to EuroSCORE II (p = 0.03), STS-IE (p = 0.03), PALSUSE (p = 0.03), AEPEI (p = 0.03), and RISK-E (p = 0.02). Conclusions: Despite the availability of recent IE-specific scores, and considering the trade-off between the indexes, the logistic EuroSCORE seemed to be the best predictor of mortality risk in our cohort, taking calibration (O/E mortality ratio: 1.3) and discrimination (AUC 0.77) into account. Local validation of IE-specific scores is needed to better assess preoperative surgical risk

Association between serum lactate levels and mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock receiving mechanical circulatory support : a multicenter retrospective cohort study

Background: To evaluate the prognostic value of peak serum lactate and lactate clearance at several time points in cardiogenic shock treated with temporary mechanical circulatory support (MCS) using veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) or Impella CP®. Methods: Serum lactate and clearance were measured before MCS and at 1 h, 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h post-MCS in 43 patients at four tertiary-care centers in Southern Brazil. Prognostic value was assessed by univariable and multivariable analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 30-day mortality. Results: VA-ECMO was the most common MCS modality (58%). Serum lactate levels at all time points and lactate clearance after 6 h were associated with mortality on unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Lactate levels were higher in non-survivors at 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h after MCS. Serum lactate >1.55 mmol/L at 24 h was the best single prognostic marker of 30-day mortality [area under the ROC curve=0.81 (0.67–0.94); positive predictive value=86%). Failure to improve serum lactate after 24 h was associated with 100% mortality. Conclusions: Serum lactate was an important prognostic biomarker in cardiogenic shock treated with temporary MCS. Serum lactate and lactate clearance at 24 h were the strongest independent predictors of short-term survival