Cliophysics: Socio-political Reliability Theory, Polity Duration and African Political (In)stabilities

Quantification of historical sociological processes have recently gained attention among theoreticians in the effort of providing a solid theoretical understanding of the behaviors and regularities present in sociopolitical dynamics. Here we present a reliability theory of polity processes with emphases on individual political dynamics of African countries. We found that the structural properties of polity failure rates successfully capture the risk of political vulnerability and instabilities in which 87.50%, 75%, 71.43%, and 0% of the countries with monotonically increasing, unimodal, U-shaped and monotonically decreasing polity failure rates, respectively, have high level of state fragility indices. The quasi-U-shape relationship between average polity duration and regime types corroborates historical precedents and explains the stability of the autocracies and democracies.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Who is to blame? The relationship between ingroup identification and relative deprivation is moderated by ingroup attributions

Contradictory evidence can be found in the literature about whether ingroup identification and perceived relative deprivation are positively or negatively related. Indeed, theoretical arguments can be made for both effects. It was proposed that the contradictory findings can be explained by considering a hitherto unstudied moderator: The extent to which deprivation is attributed to the ingroup. It was hypothesised that identification would only have a negative impact on deprivation, and that deprivation would only have a negative impact on identification, if ingroup attributions are high. To test this, attributions to the ingroup were experimentally manipulated among British student participants (N = 189) who were asked about their perceived deprivation vis-à-vis German students, yield ing support for the hypotheses

Economic Backwardness and Social Tension

We propose that relative economic backwardness contributes to the build-up of social tension and non-violent and violent conflict. We test our hypothesis using data on organized mass movements and armed civil conflict. The findings show that greater economic backwardness is consistently linked to a higher probability of onset of violent and especially non-violent forms of civil unrest. We provide evidence that the relationship is causal in instrumental variables estimations using new instruments, including mailing speeds and telegram charges around 1900. The magnitude of the effect of backwardness on social tension increases in the two-stage least-squares estimations

Sharks of the order Carcharhiniformes from the British Coniacian, Santonian and Campanian (Upper Cretaceous).

Bulk sampling of phosphate-rich horizons within the British Coniacian to Campanian (Upper Cretaceous) yielded very large samples of shark and ray teeth. All of these samples yielded teeth of diverse members of the Carcharhiniformes, which commonly dominate the fauna. The following species are recorded and described: Pseudoscyliorhinus reussi (Herman, 1977) comb. nov., Crassescyliorhinus germanicus (Herman, 1982) gen. nov., Scyliorhinus elongatus (Davis, 1887), Scyliorhinus brumarivulensis sp. nov., ? Palaeoscyllium sp., Prohaploblepharus riegrafi (Müller, 1989) gen. nov., ? Cretascyliorhinus sp., Scyliorhinidae inc. sedis 1, Scyliorhinidae inc. sedis 2, Pteroscyllium hermani sp. nov., Protoscyliorhinus sp., Leptocharias cretaceus sp. nov., Palaeogaleus havreensis Herman, 1977, Paratriakis subserratus sp. nov., Paratriakis tenuis sp. nov., Paratriakis sp. indet. and ? Loxodon sp. Taxa belonging to the families ?Proscylliidae, Leptochariidae, and Carcharhinidae are described from the Cretaceous for the first time. The evolutionary and palaeoecological implications of these newly recognised faunas are discussed

Territorial Self-Governance and Proportional Representation:Reducing the Risk of Territory-Centred Intrastate Violence

After decades of scholarship, there is still little agreement about the usefulness of territorial self-governance in managing territory-centred conflicts. We argue that the effectiveness of territorial self-governance as a tool of territory-centred conflict management increases when combined with a proportional representation (PR) electoral system for the national legislature in basically open political regimes, but not when combined with a parliamentary form of government at the centre. We propose that the combination of territorial self-governance and PR in at least minimally democratic regimes has most conflict-reducing potential, as both institutions follow a logic of widening the input side of representative politics. We find empirical support for this proposition using binary time-series cross-section analysis is found. Our findings highlight the need to consider not just the number but, more importantly, the type of power-sharing institutions that are combined with each other when looking for ways to reduce the risk of territory-centred intrastate violence

The Diffusion of Inclusion: An Open Polity Model of Ethnic Power Sharing

While there is a growing consensus that ethnic inclusion produces peace, less is known about what causes transitions to power sharing between ethnic groups in central governments in multiethnic states. The few studies that have addressed this question have proposed explanations stressing exclusively domestic factors. Yet, power sharing is spatially clustered, which suggests that diffusion may be at play. Inspired by studies of democratic diffusion, we study the spread of inclusive policies with an “open polity model” that explicitly traces diffusion from inclusion in other states. Our findings indicate that the relevant diffusion processes operate primarily at the level of world regions rather than globally or between territorial neighbors. Thus, the more inclusive the region, the more likely a shift to power sharing becomes. Shifts away from inclusion to dominance are less common since World War II, but they are more likely in regional settings characterized by ethnic exclusion

Superhard Phases of Simple Substances and Binary Compounds of the B-C-N-O System: from Diamond to the Latest Results (a Review)

The basic known and hypothetic one- and two-element phases of the B-C-N-O system (both superhard phases having diamond and boron structures and precursors to synthesize them) are described. The attention has been given to the structure, basic mechanical properties, and methods to identify and characterize the materials. For some phases that have been recently described in the literature the synthesis conditions at high pressures and temperatures are indicated.Comment: Review on superhard B-C-N-O phase

Occurrence and overlap of natural disasters, complex emergencies and epidemics during the past decade (1995–2004)

BACKGROUND: The fields of expertise of natural disasters and complex emergencies (CEs) are quite distinct, with different tools for mitigation and response as well as different types of competent organizations and qualified professionals who respond. However, natural disasters and CEs can occur concurrently in the same geographic location, and epidemics can occur during or following either event. The occurrence and overlap of these three types of events have not been well studied. METHODS: All natural disasters, CEs and epidemics occurring within the past decade (1995–2004) that met the inclusion criteria were included. The largest 30 events in each category were based on the total number of deaths recorded. The main databases used were the Emergency Events Database for natural disasters, the Uppsala Conflict Database Program for CEs and the World Health Organization outbreaks archive for epidemics. ANALYSIS: During the past decade, 63% of the largest CEs had ≥1 epidemic compared with 23% of the largest natural disasters. Twenty-seven percent of the largest natural disasters occurred in areas with ≥1 ongoing CE while 87% of the largest CEs had ≥1 natural disaster. CONCLUSION: Epidemics commonly occur during CEs. The data presented in this article do not support the often-repeated assertion that epidemics, especially large-scale epidemics, commonly occur following large-scale natural disasters. This observation has important policy and programmatic implications when preparing and responding to epidemics. There is an important and previously unrecognized overlap between natural disasters and CEs. Training and tools are needed to help bridge the gap between the different type of organizations and professionals who respond to natural disasters and CEs to ensure an integrated and coordinated response