The Misleading Potential of Communicative Hand Gestures in a Forensic Interview

A wealth of research has highlighted the susceptibility of eyewitnesses to verbal influence. However, considerably less attention has been paid to the role of nonverbal influence in police questioning. The purpose of this thesis was to evaluate the extent to which gestures can exert an influence on witnesses and skew their responses when questioned. Study 1 initially investigated this by presenting participants with an on-screen 'police' interviewer who accompanied his questions with gestures conveying either accurate or misleading information about a piece of video footage they had witnessed. Results showed that, for one question in particular, participants' responses concurred with the information conveyed to them in gesture; accurate gestures led more participants to giving correct responses and misleading gestures led more participants to giving fabricated responses. Study 2 built on this by examining whether gestures could also affect the confidence attributed to their responses in order to give insight into whether gestures were knowingly processed for information. It was found that, in some cases, gestures were able to increase confidence in both accurate and misled responses. Study 3 examined participants' awareness of gesture further by studying their attention to gesture during its performance and ability to identify it retrospectively on a recognition task. A new set of questions confirmed that gestures could influence the responses of participants (including those working in the legal profession) and revealed that the influence of gesture appears to be at its strongest when unnoticed by participants. Finally, study 4 considered whether the results of the previous studies could be replicated in a more ecologically valid interview scenario and confirmed that gestures continued to be influential when performed face-to-face. Overall, it was concluded that gestures can impact accurate eyewitness testimony and can be a powerful influential tool in police interviews

Efficiency Costs of Meeting Industry-Distributional Constraints under Environmental Permits and Taxes

Many pollution-related industries wield strong political influence and can e.ectively veto policy initiatives that would harm their profits.A politically realistic approach to environmental policy therefore seems to require the alleviation of significant profitlosses to these industries.The regulatory authority can do this by freely allocating some emissions permits or by exempting some inframarginal emissions from a pollution tax.However, such policies compel the government to forego an e.cient potential revenue source and to rely more heavily on ordinary distortionary taxes.As a result, achieving distributional objectives comes at a cost in terms of e.ciency.Using analytically and numerically solved equilibrium models, we analyze the e.- ciency costs implied by the distributional constraint that adverse impacts on profits in particular industries must be avoided.Both models indicate that the e.ciency cost implied by this constraint dwarfs the other e.ciency costs when the required amount of abatement is very small.When the abatement requirement becomes more extensive, however, the cost of this constraint diminishes relative to the other e.ciency costs of pollution-control.We also calculate the compensation ratio: the share of potential policy revenue that the government must forego to protect the industries in question.We show how this ratio is a.ected by the extent of abatement, supply and demand elasticities, and the potential for end-of-pipe treatment.One definition of this ratio corresponds to the share of pollution permits that must be freely allocated to prevent profit-losses in the targeted industries.Numerical simulations of sulfur dioxide pollution-control suggest that the Bush Administration s Clear Skies Initiative would exceed this ratio, freely allocating more permits than necessary to preserve profits.Our models also highlight significant di.erences between gross and net policy revenues: when abatement is extensive, a large fraction of the revenue collected from emissions permits or taxes is o.set by the revenue-loss from erosion of the base of existing factor taxes.efficiency;costs;environmental tax;pollution;environmental policy

A nod in the wrong direction : Does nonverbal feedback affect eyewitness confidence in interviews?

Eyewitnesses can be influenced by an interviewer's behaviour and report information with inflated confidence as a result. Previous research has shown that positive feedback administered verbally can affect the confidence attributed to testimony, but the effect of non-verbal influence in interviews has been given little attention. This study investigated whether positive or negative non-verbal feedback could affect the confidence witnesses attribute to their responses. Participants witnessed staged CCTV footage of a crime scene and answered 20 questions in a structured interview, during which they were given either positive feedback (a head nod), negative feedback (a head shake) or no feedback. Those presented with positive non-verbal feedback reported inflated confidence compared with those presented with negative non-verbal feedback regardless of accuracy, and this effect was most apparent when participants reported awareness of the feedback. These results provide further insight into the effects of interviewer behaviour in investigative interviewsPeer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Efficiency Costs of Meeting Industry-Distributional Constraints under Environmental Permits and Taxes

Many pollution-related industries wield strong political influence and can e.ectively veto policy initiatives that would harm their profits.A politically realistic approach to environmental policy therefore seems to require the alleviation of significant profitlosses to these industries.The regulatory authority can do this by freely allocating some emissions permits or by exempting some inframarginal emissions from a pollution tax.However, such policies compel the government to forego an e.cient potential revenue source and to rely more heavily on ordinary distortionary taxes.As a result, achieving distributional objectives comes at a cost in terms of e.ciency.Using analytically and numerically solved equilibrium models, we analyze the e.- ciency costs implied by the distributional constraint that adverse impacts on profits in particular industries must be avoided.Both models indicate that the e.ciency cost implied by this constraint dwarfs the other e.ciency costs when the required amount of abatement is very small.When the abatement requirement becomes more extensive, however, the cost of this constraint diminishes relative to the other e.ciency costs of pollution-control.We also calculate the compensation ratio: the share of potential policy revenue that the government must forego to protect the industries in question.We show how this ratio is a.ected by the extent of abatement, supply and demand elasticities, and the potential for end-of-pipe treatment.One definition of this ratio corresponds to the share of pollution permits that must be freely allocated to prevent profit-losses in the targeted industries.Numerical simulations of sulfur dioxide pollution-control suggest that the Bush Administration s Clear Skies Initiative would exceed this ratio, freely allocating more permits than necessary to preserve profits.Our models also highlight significant di.erences between gross and net policy revenues: when abatement is extensive, a large fraction of the revenue collected from emissions permits or taxes is o.set by the revenue-loss from erosion of the base of existing factor taxes

Recommended Medical and Non-Medical Factors to Assess Military Preventable Deaths: Subject Matter Experts Provide Valuable Insights

INTRODUCTION: Historically, there has been variability in the methods for determining preventable death within the US Department of Defense. Differences in methodologies partially explain variable preventable death rates ranging from 3% to 51%. The lack of standard review process likely misses opportunities for improvement in combat casualty care. This project identified recommended medical and non-medical factors necessary to (1) establish a comprehensive preventable death review process and (2) identify opportunities for improvement throughout the entire continuum of care. METHODS: This qualitative study used a modified rapid assessment process that includes the following steps: (1) identification and recruitment of US government subject matter experts (SMEs); (2) multiple cycles of data collection via key informant interviews and focus groups; (3) consolidation of information collected in these interviews; and (4) iterative analysis of data collected from interviews into common themes. Common themes identified from SME feedback were grouped into the following subject areas: (1) prehospital, (2) in-hospital and (3) forensic pathology. RESULTS: Medical recommendations for military preventable death reviews included the development, training, documentation, collection, analysis and reporting of the implementation of the Tactical Combat Casualty Care Guidelines, Joint Trauma System Clinical Practice Guidelines and National Association of Medical Examiners autopsy standards. Non-medical recommendations included training, improved documentation, data collection and analysis of non-medical factors needed to understand how these factors impact optimal medical care. CONCLUSIONS: In the operational environment, medical care must be considered in the context of non-medical factors. For a comprehensive preventable death review process to be sustainable in the military health system, the process must be based on an appropriate conceptual framework implemented consistently across all military services

A jump-growth model for predator-prey dynamics: derivation and application to marine ecosystems

This paper investigates the dynamics of biomass in a marine ecosystem. A stochastic process is defined in which organisms undergo jumps in body size as they catch and eat smaller organisms. Using a systematic expansion of the master equation, we derive a deterministic equation for the macroscopic dynamics, which we call the deterministic jump-growth equation, and a linear Fokker-Planck equation for the stochastic fluctuations. The McKendrick--von Foerster equation, used in previous studies, is shown to be a first-order approximation, appropriate in equilibrium systems where predators are much larger than their prey. The model has a power-law steady state consistent with the approximate constancy of mass density in logarithmic intervals of body mass often observed in marine ecosystems. The behaviours of the stochastic process, the deterministic jump-growth equation and the McKendrick--von Foerster equation are compared using numerical methods. The numerical analysis shows two classes of attractors: steady states and travelling waves.Comment: 27 pages, 4 figures. Final version as published. Only minor change

A review of symptomatic leg length inequality following total hip arthroplasty

Leg length inequality (LLI) following total hip replacement is a complication which features increasingly in the recent literature. The definition of LLI is complicated by lack of consensus regarding radiological measurement, clinical measurement and the incomplete relationship between LLI and associated symptoms. This paper reviews 79 reports relating to LLI post hip replacement, detailing definitions and classification and highlighting patient populations prone to symptomatic LLI. While there is no universal definition of LLI, there is a broad consensus that less than 10 mm of difference on AP view plain radiographs is clinically acceptable. There are few techniques described that consistently produce a postoperative LLI of less than this magnitude. Where postoperative LLI exists, lengthening appears to cause more problems than shortening. In cases of mild LLI, non-surgical management produces adequate outcomes in the majority of cases, with functional LLI cases doing better than those with true LLI. Operative correction is effective in half of cases, even where nerve palsy is present, and remains an important option of last resort. Poor outcomes in patients with LLI may be minimised if individuals at risk are identified and counselled appropriately