Resource allocation, hyperphagia and compensatory growth

Organisms often shown enhanced growth during recovery from starvation, and can even overtake continuously fed conspecifics (overcompensation). In an earlier paper (Ecology 84, 2777-2787), we studied the relative role played by hyperphagia and resource allocation in producing overcompensation in juvenile (non-reproductive) animals. We found that, although hyperphagia always produces growth compensation, overcompensation additionally requires protein allocation control which routes assimilate preferentially to structure during recovery. In this paper we extend our model to cover reproductively active individuals and demonstrate that growth rate overcompensation requires a similar combination of hyperphagia and allocation control which routes the part of enhanced assimilation not used for reproduction preferentially towards structural growth. We compare the properties of our dynamic energy budget model with an earlier proposal, due to Kooijman, which we extend to include hyperphagia. This formulation assumes that the rate of allocation to reserves is controlled by instantaneous feeding rate, and one would thus expect that an extension to include hyperphagia would not predict growth overcompensation. However, we show that a self-consistent representation of the hyperphagic response in Kooijman's model overrides its fundamental dynamics, leading to preferential allocation to structural growth during recovery and hence to growth overcompensation

Process-based modelling of decadal trends in growth, survival, and smolting of wild salmon (Salmo salar) parr in a Scottish upland stream

This paper reports a new model of the freshwater stages of an anadromous fish, at the core of which is a stochastic description of the size-at-age dynamics of a growing cohort. Emigration is assumed to require the individual to exceed a threshold size at a critical time of year, thus making the distributions of survival to, and age at, smolting emergent properties of the model. The model is applied to a long-term data set on juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Girnock Burn, Scotland, to understand the role played by decadal temperature trends in generating changes in smolt production and age distribution. We conclude that changes in age at smolting are compatible with causation by shifts in the temperature regime. However, the large attenuation between a dramatic fall in spawner numbers and a relatively minor diminution in total smolt production does not result from the physiological effects of temperature but is rather a result of strongly density-dependent mortality between the deposition of ova and the appearance of catchable fry the following summer

Modeling the Demographic Effects of Endocrine Disruptors

In this article we describe a series of strategic models of populations and individuals subject to challenge by endocrine disruptors. These models are not designed to be fitted to detailed data on specific species but rather are intended to provide general insights on the relative importance of different demographic mechanisms in the population context. Therefore, the models contain the minimum necessary biological detail, but in recompense they are highly accessible to mathematical analysis. We show that, over a range of models with contrasting biological detail, population viability is controlled by the number of female offspring that result from the average female’s lifetime reproductive activity. Thus, male fertility changes have little effect at the population level until they become severe enough to reduce this average female output. We argue that in many circumstances endocrine disruptors are likely to produce directly deleterious effects on female fecundity at levels far below those required to reduce male fertility to dangerously low levels. Finally, we formulate a simple model of individual energetics that we argue can form the basis of a strategic discussion of the likely sensitivity of female demographic parameters to chemically induced changes in physiological function

The characteristics of epidemics and invasions with thresholds

In this paper we report the development of a highly efficient numerical method for determining the principal characteristics (velocity, leading edge width, and peak height) of spatial invasions or epidemics described by deterministic one-dimensiohal reaction–diffusion models whose dynamics include a threshold or Allee effect. We prove that this methodology produces the correct results for single-component models which are generalizations of the Fisher model, and then demonstrate by numerical experimentation that analogous methods work for a wide class of epidemic and invasion models including the S–I and S–E–I epidemic models and the Rosenzweig–McArthur predator–prey model. As examplary application of this approach we consider the atto–fox effect in the classic reaction–diffusion model of rabies in the European fox population and show that the appropriate threshold for this model is within an order of magnitude of the peak disease incidence and thus has potentially significant effects on epidemic properties. We then make a careful re-parameterisation of the model and show that the velocities calculated with realistic thresholds differ surprisingly little from those calculated from threshold-free models. We conclude that an appropriately thresholded reaction–diffusion model provides a robust representation of the initial epidemic wave and thus provides a sound basis on which to begin a properly mechanistic modelling enterprise aimed at understanding the long-term persistence of the disease

Education and the early modern English separatists

ABSTRACT\ud This study reassesses the significance of education in the lives and\ud thinking of the early modern English Separatists. For this purpose,\ud 'early modern' is construed as the period from the accession of\ud Elizabeth I in 1558 to the outbreak of the First Civil War in 1642.\ud ,The thesis first describes the origins, nature and development of\ud Separatism during this period, and then sets the study in context by\ud delineating the nature of education in those eight or so decades. In\ud order to facilitate the handling of the material germane to the study,\ud the leading original proponents of the distinctive Separatist ideology\ud are considered in chapters three and four. Chapter three deals with\ud the three men who in the late Tudor years set the parameters for\ud the subsequent groVV'ch of a comprehensive and self-consistent\ud Separatist philosophy. Chapter four examines the contributions of\ud the 1 7 most prominent men who built on their work in the early\ud Stuart period.\ud The very fact of their prominence, however, entails the likelihood\ud that they were better-educated than the majority of their fellowbelievers,\ud and perhaps to that extent unrepresentative of them. The\ud resulting possible distortion is therefore corrected by investigating\ud the educational levels of 52 Separatist prisoners in London gaols at\ud the turn of the ninth and tenth decades of the sixteenth century.\ud Past work in this field has tended to a minimalist interpretation of\ud the available evidence. This thesis concludes that both the\ud educational achievements of the first early modern English religious\ud Separatists, and their attitudes to education, have been underestimated.\ud It seeks to correct this misrepresentation with a\ud judgement more closely corresponding to the evidence yielded by an\ud objective review of the facts

Resource allocation, hyperphagia and compensatory growth in juveniles

Many organisms exploit highly variable food supplies and, as an adaptation to such conditions, show elevated growth during recovery from starvation. In some species this response enables starved and re-fed individuals to outpace those growing continuously. The main engine of compensatory growth is a relative increase in food ingestion as a reaction to poor nutritional condition. We use a series of mathematical energy-budget models to investigate the interaction between the mechanisms that control such hyperphagia and those that control internal allocation, with the aim of identifying those strategies that permit overcompensation. We find that hyperphagia alone normally produces weak compensation and can never result in overcompensation. When combined with internal allocation, which routes a fixed fraction of net production to reserves, a strong compensatory response becomes the norm, and overcompensation is frequent

Modelling the spatial demography of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) on the European continental shelf

Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks across the North Atlantic have been subject to intense fishing pressure during the 20th century, and some stocks have suffered well-documented collapses. On the European shelf, cod arewidely but heterogeneously distributed and are caught as part of a multispecies trawl fishery. There is a growing body of evidence that this stock is composed of substocks with potentially distinct demographic properties. As a first step towards the development of management methodologies that reflect this spatial and biological complexity, we present a spatially and physiologically explicit model describing the demography and distribution of cod on the European shelf. The computational efficiency of our implementation enables numerical parameter optimization, thus facilitating formal statistical tests of structural hypotheses. We use these methods to fit model variants embodying a variety of hypotheses about the movements of settled fish to a data set including spatial distribution information derived from International Bottom Trawl Surveys. The best-fit model emerging from this study is then used to investigate the potential effects oflong-term application of a series of regional fishing closure policies

Modelling ocean acidification effects with life stage-specific responses alters spatiotemporal patterns of catch and revenues of American lobster, Homarus americanus

Ocean acidification (OA) affects marine organisms through various physiological and biological processes, yet our understanding of how these translate to large-scale population effects remains limited. Here, we integrated laboratory-based experimental results on the life history and physiological responses to OA of the American lobster, Homarus americanus, into a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model to project future climate change effects on species distribution, abundance, and fisheries catch potential. Ocean acidification effects on juvenile stages had the largest stage-specific impacts on the population, while cumulative effects across life stages significantly exerted the greatest impacts, albeit quite minimal. Reducing fishing pressure leads to overall increases in population abundance while setting minimum size limits also results in more higher-priced market-sized lobsters (> 1 lb), and could help mitigate the negative impacts of OA and concurrent stressors (warming, deoxygenation). However, the magnitude of increased effects of climate change overweighs any moderate population gains made by changes in fishing pressure and size limits, reinforcing that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is most pressing and that climate-adaptive fisheries management is necessary as a secondary role to ensure population resiliency. We suggest possible strategies to mitigate impacts by preserving important population demographics

Serum neurofilament dynamics predicts neurodegeneration and clinical progression in presymptomatic Alzheimer's disease

Neurofilament light chain (NfL) is a promising fluid biomarker of disease progression for various cerebral proteopathies. Here we leverage the unique characteristics of the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network and ultrasensitive immunoassay technology to demonstrate that NfL levels in the cerebrospinal fluid (n = 187) and serum (n = 405) are correlated with one another and are elevated at the presymptomatic stages of familial Alzheimer's disease. Longitudinal, within-person analysis of serum NfL dynamics (n = 196) confirmed this elevation and further revealed that the rate of change of serum NfL could discriminate mutation carriers from non-mutation carriers almost a decade earlier than cross-sectional absolute NfL levels (that is, 16.2 versus 6.8 years before the estimated symptom onset). Serum NfL rate of change peaked in participants converting from the presymptomatic to the symptomatic stage and was associated with cortical thinning assessed by magnetic resonance imaging, but less so with amyloid-β deposition or glucose metabolism (assessed by positron emission tomography). Serum NfL was predictive for both the rate of cortical thinning and cognitive changes assessed by the Mini-Mental State Examination and Logical Memory test. Thus, NfL dynamics in serum predict disease progression and brain neurodegeneration at the early presymptomatic stages of familial Alzheimer's disease, which supports its potential utility as a clinically useful biomarker