Monitoring the meteorological and hydrological droughts in the largest river basin (Mahaweli River) in Sri Lanka

This study assessed the meteorological and hydrological droughts and their relationship over 30 years from 1985 to 2015 in the largest river basin (Mahaweli River Basin (MRB)) in Sri Lanka. Data from 14 rainfall, 5 temperature, and 5 streamflow stations in and near the MRB were used in the present study. Universal drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to assess meteorological droughts. The Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) was used in investigating hydrological droughts. Correlations between meteorological and hydrological droughts were obtained, annual variations were observed (in terms of SPI, SPEI, and SSI), and the spatial distributions of selected drought events were analyzed. Our results revealed that the highest correlation was found in long-term dry conditions in the wet zone. In addition, some negative correlations found showed the opposite behavior of correlations. Furthermore, in annual variations of droughts, extreme droughts were recorded in the dry zone as maximum values, while results were more prominent in the wet zone. In addition, the spatial distribution performed using SPI, SPEI, and SSI showed an extremely dry condition in 2004. Our findings are beneficial for policymaking and for the decision-makers in assessing meteorological and hydrological drought risks in the future

Spatial mapping and analysis of forest fire risk areas in Sri Lanka – Understanding environmental significance

This study presents the first attempt in Sri Lanka to generate a forest fire risk map covering the entire country using a GIS-based forest fire index (FFI) model. The model utilized seven parameters: land use, temperature, slope, proximity to roads and settlements, elevation, and aspect. All these parameters were derived using GIS techniques with ArcGIS10.4 and QGIS3.16. Data from Remote Sensing sources, particularly the MODIS hotspot real-world dataset, were employed to gather fire count information for the year 2020. Validation was conducted through the merging hotspot technique and kernel density estimation (KDE). The research findings highlight the districts in the Central and Uva provinces, such as NuwaraEliya (10.3 km2), Kandy (2.74 km2), and Badulla (10.41 km2), as having a “very low risk" of forest fire potential. Conversely, districts like Hambanthota (0.1 km2), Kaluthara (0.04 km2), and Kurunegala (0.2 km2) exhibit a “very high risk" of forest fire potential, although it is negligible compared country's total area. Overall, the study suggests that Sri Lanka is not currently facing a significant threat of forest fires and is a “medium risk" of forest fires as 49.49% of land falls under this category. These results are of immense value to relevant authorities, including the Ministry of Wildlife and Forest Resources Conservation, in formulating effective strategies to manage and mitigate forest fire risks in the country

Performances of holiday climate index (HCI) for urban and beach destinations in Sri Lanka under changing climate

Climate change has had a significant impact on the tourism industry in many countries, leading to changes in policies and adaptations to attract more visitors. However, there are few studies on the effects of climate change on Sri Lanka’s tourism industry and income, despite its importance as a destination for tourists. A study was conducted to analyze the holiday climate index (HCI) for Sri Lanka’s urban and beach destinations to address this gap. The analysis covered historical years (2010–2018) and forecasted climatic scenarios (2021–2050 and 2071–2100), and the results were presented as colored maps to highlight the importance of HCI scores. Visual analysis showed some correlation between HCI scores and tourist arrivals, but the result of the overall correlation analysis was not significant. However, a country-specific correlation analysis revealed interesting findings, indicating that the changing climate can be considered among other factors that impact tourist arrivals. The research proposes that authorities assess the outcomes of the study and conduct further research to develop adaptive plans for Sri Lanka’s future tourism industry. The study also investigated potential scenarios for beach and urban destinations under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the near and far future, presenting the findings to tourism industry stakeholders for any necessary policy changes. As Sri Lanka expects more Chinese visitors in the future due to ongoing development projects, this study could be valuable for policymakers and industry stakeholders when adapting to changing climate and future tourist behavior. While more research is needed to fully understand the effects of climate change on Sri Lanka’s tourism industry, this study serves as a starting point for future investigations

A Simplified Equation for Calculating the Water Quality Index (WQI), Kalu River, Sri Lanka

The water supply system plays a major role in the community. The water source is carefully selected based on quality, quantity, and reliability. The quality of water at its sources is continuously deteriorating due to various anthropogenic activities and is a major concern to public health as well. The Kalu River is one of the major water resources in Sri Lanka that supplies potable water to the Kalutara district (a highly populated area) and Rathnapura district. But, there has been no significant research or investigation to examine anthropogenic activities in the river. Due to this, it is difficult to find any proper study related to the overall water quality in the Kalu River. Therefore, this study covers a crucial part related to the water quality of the Kalu River. The spatiotemporal variation of river water quality is highly important not only to processing any treatment activities but also to implementing policy decisions. In this context, water quality management is a global concern as countries strive to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6, which aims to ensure the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all. Poor water quality can have severe consequences on human health, ecosystems, and economies. Contaminated water sources pose risks of waterborne diseases, reduced agricultural productivity, and ecological imbalances. Hence, assessing and improving water quality is crucial for achieving sustainable development worldwide. Therefore, this paper presents a comprehensive analysis of spatiotemporal analysis of the water quality of the Kalu River using the water quality data of eight locations for 6 years from 2017 to 2023. Nine water quality parameters, including the pH, electrical conductivity, temperature, chemical oxygen demand, biological oxygen demand, total nitrate, total phosphate, total sulfate, total chlorine, and hardness, were used to develop a simple equation to investigate the water quality index (WQI) of the river. Higher WQI values were not recorded near the famous Kalutara Bridge throughout the years, even though the area is highly urbanized and toured due to religious importance. Overall, the water quality of the river can be considered acceptable based on the results of the WQI. The country lockdowns due to COVID-19 might have impacted the results in 2020; this can be clearly seen with the variation of the annual WQI average, as it clearly indicates decreased levels of the WQI in the years 2020 and 2021, and again, the rise of the WQI level in 2022, as this time period corresponds to the lockdown season and relaxation of the lockdown season in the country. Somehow, for most cases in the Kalu River, the WQI level is well below 25, which can be considered acceptable and suitable for human purposes. But, it may need some attention towards the areas to find possible reasons that are not in the range. Nevertheless, the results suggest the importance of continuous water quality monitoring in the Kalu River

Inflow Forecast of Iranamadu Reservoir, Sri Lanka, under Projected Climate Scenarios Using Artificial Neural Networks

Prediction of water resources for future years takes much attention from the water resources planners and relevant authorities. However, traditional computational models like hydrologic models need many data about the catchment itself. Sometimes these important data on catchments are not available due to many reasons. Therefore, artificial neural networks (ANNs) are useful soft computing tools in predicting real-world scenarios, such as forecasting future water availability from a catchment, in the absence of intensive data, which are required for modeling practices in the context of hydrology. These ANNs are capable of building relationships to nonlinear real-world problems using available data and then to use that built relationship to forecast future needs. Even though Sri Lanka has an extensive usage of water resources for many activities, including drinking water supply, irrigation, hydropower development, navigation, and many other recreational purposes, forecasting studies for water resources are not being carried out. Therefore, there is a significant gap in forecasting water availability and water needs in the context of Sri Lanka. Thus, this paper presents an artificial neural network model to forecast the inflows of one of the most important reservoirs in northern Sri Lanka using the upstream catchment’s rainfall. Future rainfall data are extracted using regional climate models for the years 2021–2050 and the inflows of the reservoir are forecasted using the validated neural network model. Several training algorithms including Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), BFGS quasi-Newton (BFG), scaled conjugate gradient (SCG) have been used to find the best fitting training algorithm to the prediction process of the inflows against the measured inflows. Results revealed that the LM training algorithm outperforms the other tests algorithm in developing the prediction model. In addition, the forecasted results using the projected climate scenarios clearly showcase the benefit of using the forecasting model in solving future water resource management to avoid or to minimize future water scarcity. Therefore, the validated model can effectively be used for proper planning of the proposed drinking water supply scheme to the nearby urban city, Jaffna in northern Sri Lanka

Ecosystem-Based Adaptation for the Impact of Climate Change and Variation in the Water Management Sector of Sri Lanka

The climate of Sri Lanka has been fluctuating at an alarming rate during the recent past. These changes are reported to have pronounced impacts on the livelihoods of the people in the country. Water is central to the sustainable functioning of ecosystems and wellbeing of mankind. It is evident that pronounced variations in the climate will negatively impact the availability and the quality of water resources. The ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) approach has proved to be an effective strategy to address the impact of climate change on water resources in many parts of the world. The key aim of this paper is to elaborate the wide range of benefits received through implementation of EbAs in field level, watershed scale, and urban and coastal environments in the context of Sri Lanka. In addition, this paper discusses the benefits of utilizing EbA solutions over grey infrastructure-based solutions to address the issues related to water management. The wide range of benefits received through implementation of EbAs can be broadly classified into three categories: water supply regulation, water quality regulation, and moderation of extreme events. This paper recommends the utilization of EbAs over grey infrastructure-based solutions in adaptation to climate change in the water management sector for the developing region due its cost effectiveness, ecofriendliness, and multiple benefits received on long-term scales. The findings of this study will unequivocally contribute to filling existing knowledge and research gaps in the context of EbAs to future climate change in Sri Lanka. The suggestions and opinions of this study can be taken into account by decision makers and water resources planning agencies for future planning of actions related to climate change adaptation in Sri Lanka

Spatiotemporal Rainfall Variability and Trends over the Mahi Basin, India

Climate change can have an influence on rainfall that significantly affects the magnitude frequency of floods and droughts. Therefore, the analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution, variability, and trends of rainfall over the Mahi Basin in India is an important objective of the present work. Accordingly, a serial autocorrelation, coefficient of variation, Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope test, innovative trend analysis (ITA), and Pettitt’s test were used in the rainfall analysis. The outcomes were derived from the monthly precipitation data (1901–2012) of 14 meteorology stations in the Mahi Basin. The serial autocorrelation results showed that there is no autocorrelation in the data series. The rainfall statistics denoted that the Mahi Basin receives 94.8% of its rainfall (821 mm) in the monsoon period (June–September). The normalized accumulated departure from the mean reveals that the annual and monsoon rainfall of the Mahi Basin were below average from 1901 to 1930 and above average from 1930 to 1990, followed by a period of fluctuating conditions. Annual and monsoon rainfall variations increase in the lower catchment of the basin. The annual and monsoon rainfall trend analysis specified a significant declining tendency for four stations and an increasing tendency for 3 stations, respectively. A significant declining trend in winter rainfall was observed for 9 stations under review. Likewise, out of 14 stations, 9 stations denote a significant decrease in pre-monsoon rainfall. Nevertheless, there is no significant increasing or decreasing tendency in annual, monsoon, and post-monsoon rainfall in the Mahi Basin. The Mann–Kendall test and innovative trend analysis indicate identical tendencies of annual and seasonal rainfall on the basin scale. The annual and monsoon rainfall of the basin showed a positive shift in rainfall after 1926. The rainfall analysis confirms that despite spatiotemporal variations in rainfall, there are no significant positive or negative trends of annual and monsoon rainfall on the basin scale. It suggests that the Mahi Basin received average rainfall (867 mm) annually and in the monsoon season (821 mm) from 1901 to 2012, except for a few years of high and low rainfall. Therefore, this study is important for flood and drought management, agriculture, and water management in the Mahi Basin

Projection of Future Hydropower Generation in Samanalawewa Power Plant, Sri Lanka

The projection of future hydropower generation is extremely important for the sustainable development of any country, which utilizes hydropower as one of the major sources of energy to plan the country’s power management system. Hydropower generation, on the other hand, is mostly dependent on the weather and climate dynamics of the local area. In this paper, we aim to study the impact of climate change on the future performance of the Samanalawewa hydropower plant located in Sri Lanka using artificial neural networks (ANNs). ANNs are one of the most effective machine learning tools for examining nonlinear relationships between the variables to understand complex hydrological processes. Validated ANN model is used to project the future power generation from 2020 to 2050 using future projected rainfall data extracted from regional climate models. Results showcased that the forecasted hydropower would increase in significant percentages (7.29% and 10.22%) for the two tested climatic scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Therefore, this analysis showcases the capability of ANN in projecting nonstationary patterns of power generation from hydropower plants. The projected results are of utmost importance to stakeholders to manage reservoir operations while maximizing the productivity of the impounded water and thus, maximizing economic growth as well as social benefits

Development of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves for the Fiji Islands: integrating TRMM-3B42 and measured gauge data with future projections

ABSTRACTThis paper explores the utilisation of gauge rainfall and satellite-based precipitation product (SPP)-TRMM3B42, to develop IDF curves for the Fiji Islands. The study compares the application of remote sensing data against rain gauge (RG) data for two main stations, Nadi and Nausori (1991 to 2020). The accuracy of SPPs is evaluated through statistical analysis, employing continuous and categorical evaluation indices. The results indicate that TRMM3B42 tends to overestimate light precipitation and underestimate heavy rainfall in low elevations when compared to rain gauge data. Rainfall intensities derived from satellite data exhibit relative changes within ± 10%. This study also performs future projections. Two greenhouse emission scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 2–4.5 and 5–8.5, are employed for IDF curve projection. The analysis reveals that changes in IDF curves are more pronounced for short-duration rainfall as compared to high-duration rainfall. Additionally, higher emission scenarios demonstrate greater changes compared to lower scenarios. These findings emphasise the importance of accounting for climate change and future projections in designing urban infrastructure, particularly considering potential urban expansion and human settlements. This study helps in solving design problems associated with urban runoff control and disposal where knowing the rainfall intensities of different return periods with different durations is vital

Evaluation of Future Climate and Potential Impact on Streamflow in the Upper Nan River Basin of Northern Thailand

Water resources in Northern Thailand have been less explored with regard to the impact on hydrology that the future climate would have. For this study, three regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were used to project future climate of the upper Nan River basin. Future climate data of ACCESS_CCAM, MPI_ESM_CCAM, and CNRM_CCAM under Representation Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were bias-corrected by the linear scaling method and subsequently drove the Hydrological Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to simulate future streamflow. This study compared baseline (1988–2005) climate and streamflow values with future time scales during 2020–2039 (2030s), 2040–2069 (2050s), and 2070–2099 (2080s). The upper Nan River basin will become warmer in future with highest increases in the maximum temperature of 3.8°C/year for MPI_ESM and minimum temperature of 3.6°C/year for ACCESS_CCAM under RCP8.5 during 2080s. The magnitude of changes and directions in mean monthly precipitation varies, with the highest increase of 109 mm for ACESSS_CCAM under RCP 4.5 in September and highest decrease of 77 mm in July for CNRM, during 2080s. Average of RCM combinations shows that decreases will be in ranges of −5.5 to −48.9% for annual flows, −31 to −47% for rainy season flows, and −47 to −67% for winter season flows. Increases in summer seasonal flows will be between 14 and 58%. Projection of future temperature levels indicates that higher increases will be during the latter part of the 20th century, and in general, the increases in the minimum temperature will be higher than those in the maximum temperature. The results of this study will be useful for river basin planners and government agencies to develop sustainable water management strategies and adaptation options to offset negative impacts of future changes in climate. In addition, the results will also be valuable for agriculturists and hydropower planners