Understanding Business Cycle Fluctuations in Pakistan

Notwithstanding the level of improvement in understanding the complexities of an economy, it is now well accepted that the ultimate incidence of various policy interventions leads to varied outcomes in terms of magnitude and persistence depending upon the structure of the economy. The objective of the present study is to disentangle the relative contributions of various exogenous and domestic shocks that contribute to business cycle fluctuations in Pakistan. The study is based on the New-Keynesian Open economy model, which is an extended version of (Gali & Monacili 2005). Keating’s two-step approach (1990, 2000) is employed to capture the dynamic behaviour of the variables of interest. Impulse response functions, along with forecast error variance decomposition analyses, are used to gain useful insights into the understanding of the transmission mechanism of policy and non-policy shocks. It is observed that fiscal policy does matter, at least in the short-run. The interest rate shock leads to the exchange rate appreciation thereby confirming the exchange rate puzzle. In response to adverse supply shocks, the Monetary Authority responds with a monetary contraction that prolongs the recessionary periods. Furthermore, it has a limited power to control inflation as inflation in Pakistan stems from supply-side factors as well as fiscal dominance. JEL Classification: C32, E52, E62, F41 Keywords: Open Economy, New Keynesian Model, Rational Expectations, Exchange Rate Puzzl

Measurement and Determinants of Inclusive Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan (1990-2012)

Equality of opportunity is the core of inclusive growth, and the inclusive growth emphasises to create employment and other development opportunities through rapid and sustained economic growth, and to promote social justice and the equality of sharing of growth results by reducing and eliminating inequality of opportunity. The main objective of the study is to measure the inclusive growth first and then empirically examine its determinants. To measure the inclusive growth, we use the methodology developed by Asian Development Bank using weights and scores of different indicators. We develop a unified measure of inclusive growth, which integrates growth, inequality, accessibility and governance into one single measure. Results show that Pakistan is at satisfactory performance level with respect to its performance in growth inclusiveness. Further results of ARDL show that macroeconomic stability and social financial deepening are important determinants to enhance the inclusiveness, and reduce poverty and inequality, while reforms in trade sector are required to increase their efficiency in terms of inclusiveness. JEL Classification: O4 Keywords: Inclusive Growth, Poverty Reduction, Income Inequality, Equity, Accessibility, Social Protectio

Trade Liberalisation and Industrial Productivity: Evidence from Manufacturing Industries in Pakistan

This study examines the impact of trade liberalisation on the industrial productivity for a panel of twenty seven 3-digit manufacturing industries in Pakistan over the period 1980-2006. Using a variant of the Cobb-Douglas production function for industrial sector, we estimated output elasticities. The results show positive output elasticities with respect to labour, capital and raw materials for the pre-trade liberalisation period (1981 –1995) as well as post-trade liberalisation period (1996-2006). For the pre-liberalisation period, we observe positive output elasticity with respect to energy, while it turns out to be negative in the post-liberalisation period probably due to energy crisis in Pakistan. In the second stage, we calculate total factor productivity (TFP) and examine the impact of trade liberalisation on TFP for pre-and post-trade liberalisation periods. The results reveal that trade liberalisation proxied by import duty has positive but negligible impact on the TFP in the pre-as well as post-liberalisation periods. On the other hand, effective rates of protection exert large negative impact on the TFP in the post-liberalisation than the pre-liberalisation period. JEL Classifications: F14, F13, O53, L60 Keywords: Trade Liberalisation, Total Factor Productivity, Manufacturing Sector of Pakista

Promoting motivation towards community health care: A qualitative study from nurses in Pakistan

Based on the extensive health care needs of Pakistani population, the idea of Community Health Nursing was introduced in 1985. The educational nursing institutes adopted nursing curriculum in order to produce competent nurses to meet the rising demands of society. However, very few numbers of nurses choose community health nursing as their career pathway in Pakistan. Based on the current observation, enhancing motivation among graduate nurses has always been viewed as a great challenge for the academic nursing institutions. This study was intended to explore motivating and de motivating factors in nurses towards community Health Nursing. By utilizing self concept based model of motivation, semi structured interviews were conducted with newly graduated nurses, nurse educators and nursing students. The findings revealed that certain traits, values and competencies are required to motivate nurses as well as to build their capacity towards working effectively in the community setting. Moreover, through this study several realistic recommendations by the participants are highlighted that could foster motivation among future nurses towards this field

Energy-Economy Nexus in Emerging Economies: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Keeping in view the strong link between energy use and economic growth along with associated environmental costs and contradictory findings, this study re-investigates the energy-economy nexus for a group of 45 emerging economies. Empirical estimation of the modified Solow growth equation is carried out through pooled mean group estimator, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition for the period 1991-2015. Our empirical results show that energy use and economic growth are interdependent (feedback hypothesis) in case of emerging economies. Overall, the analysis demonstrates that energy is the mainstay of emerging economies. Therefore, to maintain the ongoing pace o

Role of fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) in the diagnosis of soft tissue tumors

Background: Soft tissue tumors constitute a large and heterogenous group of neoplasms. Benign tumors out number their malignant counterparts by a ratio of about 100:1 in hospital population. FNAC has emerged as a major outpatient procedure for the diagnosis of soft tissue tumors due to low cost of the procedure, less complications, feasibility, quick results and high therapeutic efficiency with specificity and sensitivity of approximately 95%. The diagnostic accuracy of FNAC of soft tissue tumors in distinguishing benign and malignant lesion is also very high. The objectives of this study were to study the role of FNAC in the diagnosis of soft tissue tumors and its correlation with histopathology. Also, this study aimed at studying various cytomorphological patterns of soft tissue tumors and correlating cytological grading with histopathological grading.Methods: It was a hospital based study of 5 years which included 479 patients of all age groups, clinically presenting with soft tissue swellings. FNAC was performed. Smears were stained with Papanicolaou (PAP)/May Grunwald Geimsa (MGG). The cytological details of soft tissue tumors were studied and broadly classified into benign, malignant and indeterminate and suspicious. Cytomorphological subtyping and grading of tumors on FNAC was done. The cytological findings were correlated with the histopathological results, wherever available.Results: Benign tumors comprised of 423 cases (88.3%) and malignant tumors comprised 56 cases (11.69%)only. Maximum number of cases were seen in well differentiated/lipomatous group (339 cases) followed by spindle cell category (88 cases). Histopathological correlation carried out in 136 out of 479 cases (benign:111 and malignant :25) revealed that out of 111 cases diagnosed as benign by cytology, one case was malignant (liposarcoma) and among 25 malignant cases diagnosed by cytology one case was benign (myofibroblastoma). Overall sensitivity and specificity of FNAC was 96% and 99% respectively. Comparison of cytological and histopathological grading of 24 sarcomas showed overall concordance of 75%.Conclusions: FNAC is an excellent diagnostic modality in early diagnosis of soft tissue tumors. FNAC is highly reliable and obviates surgical procedures especially in high risk patients thus facilitating initiation of appropriate therapy and saving time and manpower. It is also highly sensitive in detecting benign soft tissue tumors and highly specific for malignant soft issue tumors

Characterizing Elite Scholars of Library and Information Science: A Bibliometric Analysis

Publication metrics have become crucial to measure the productivity and impact of individuals and organizations for highlighting their influence upon the knowledge world. This study aims to present a bibliometric analysis of the top two percent highly cited Library and Information Science (LIS) researchers in the Stanford University list of the top two percent researchers of various disciplines published in 2021. We have used the bibliometric method to analyze 254 highly cited LIS researchers. The findings show male dominance and female underrepresentation in LIS research. Leydesdorff, Loet is the most highly cited researcher of the LIS field. The Amsterdam School of Communications Research, Netherlands, is the most highly cited organization of LIS based on the highly cited researchers affiliated with it. The majority of LIS researchers belong to USA and UK. There is a meager contribution of Asian, Australian, and African countries producing highly cited LIS researchers. Highly cited LIS researchers are more familiar with publishing research in information retrieval, information seeking, and bibliometrics. Positions of researchers at different ranks by different measures depict their productivity, impact, h- index, and a composite score. A strong correlation exists between total publications and total citations. The study, in its nature, is unique and will provide an insight for young and emerging researchers for selection of research direction, persons for research collaboration, and a motivation to invest more efforts for impactful research

Biomass expansion factors of Olea ferruginea (Royle) in sub tropical forests of Pakistan

Wood biomass gives information about total productivity of the forest as well as individual tree. Olea ferruginea (Royle) which is small and evergreen is widely distributed in native sub tropical forests of Pakistan and extensively used as fuelwood domestically. This study was carried out in the sub tropical forests of Pakistan at 33° 38’ north and 73° 00’ east latitude and longitude, respectively, and at an elevation of 917 m. Trees with exploitable diameter were selected randomly from the entire forest.Destructive sampling techniques were used for measuring biomass (kgm-3) in all the tree components. For this purpose, 5 trees were felled and the biomass of each component of the tree including main stem, branches, leaves, twigs and roots were estimated separately using volume, weight and density. The generic data of wood density (kgm-3) was used to determine the biomass (kg). The study showed that average contribution of stem portion of the tree was 49.01% of the total tree biomass, and branches showed 31.17%, leaves 1.98%, twigs 1.05% and roots 16.65% of the total tree biomass. So, it was found that the major part of the total tree biomass was present in the stem portion of O. ferruginea. Totalvolume of the tree was also found to be dependent on the diameter of the tree. Mean volume of the tree was 0.475 ± 0.07 m3. The prepared  biomass expansion factor will be helpful in estimating productivity, carbon stocks and yield of the forest.Key words: Biomass, biomass expansion factor, tree volume, Olea ferruginea