Modelling of land use and land cover changes and prediction using CA-Markov and Random Forest

We used the Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) integrated technique to study land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the Cholistan and Thal deserts in Punjab, Pakistan. We plotted the distribution of the LULC throughout the desert terrain for the years 1990, 2006 and 2022. The Random Forest methodology was utilized to classify the data obtained from Landsat 5 (TM), Landsat 7 (ETM+) and Landsat 8 (OLI/TIRS), as well as ancillary data. The LULC maps generated using this method have an overall accuracy of more than 87%. CA-Markov was utilized to forecast changes in land usage in 2022, and changes were projected for 2038 by extending the patterns seen in 2022. A CA-Markov-Chain was developed for simulating long-term landscape changes at 16-year time steps from 2022 to 2038. Analysis of urban sprawl was carried out by using the Random Forest (RF). Through the CA-Markov Chain analysis, we can expect that high density and low-density residential areas will grow from 8.12 to 12.26 km2 and from 18.10 to 28.45 km2 in 2022 and 2038, as inferred from the changes occurred from 1990 to 2022. The LULC projected for 2038 showed that there would be increased urbanization of the terrain, with probable development in the croplands westward and northward, as well as growth in residential centers. The findings can potentially assist management operations geared towards the conservation of wildlife and the eco-system in the region. This study can also be a reference for other studies that try to project changes in arid are as undergoing land-use changes comparable to those in this study

Land subsidence analysis using synthetic aperture radar data

Land subsidence is considered a threat to developing cities and is triggered by several natural (geological and seismic) and human (mining, groundwater withdrawal, oil and gas extraction, constructions) factors. This research has gathered datasets consisting of 80 Sentinel-1A ascending and descending SLC images from July 2017 to July 2019. This dataset, concerning InSAR and PS-InSAR, is processed with SARPROZ software to determine the land subsidence in Gwadar City, Balochistan, Pakistan. Later, the maps were created with ArcGIS 10.8. Due to InSAR’s limitations in measuring millimeter-scale surface deformation, Multi-Temporal InSAR techniques, like PS-InSAR, are introduced to provide better accuracy, consistency, and fewer errors of deformation analysis. This remote-based SAR technique is helpful in the Gwadar area; for researchers, city mobility is constrained and has become more restricted post-Covid-19. This technique requires multiple images acquired of the same place at different times for estimating surface deformation per year, along with surface uplifting and subsidence. The InSAR results showed maximum deformation in the Koh-i-Mehdi Mountain from 2017 to 2019. The PS-InSAR results showed subsidence up to −92 mm/year in ascending track and −66 mm/year in descending track in the area of Koh-i-Mehdi Mountain, and up to −48 mm/year in ascending track and −32 mm/year in descending track in the area of the deep seaport. From our experimental results, a high subsidence rate has been found in the newly evolving Gwadar City. This city is very beneficial to the country’s economic development because of its deep-sea port, developed by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The research is associated with a detailed analysis of Gwadar City, identifying the areas with significant subsidence, and enlisting the possible causes that are needed to be resolved before further developments. Our findings are helpful to urban development and disaster monitoring as the city is being promoted as the next significant deep seaport with the start of CPEC

A New Extraction Method of Surface Water Based on Dense Time-Sequence Images

Fluctuations in the surface water are indicators of climatic and biological environmental variations. The water index method is the predominant approach for water extraction owing to its simplicity of operation and high efficiency. Recognizing the limitations of individual water indices in extracting water over dense time-sequences, this study introduces a combined water index (CWI) frequency method to improve the water extraction results. The research findings indicate the following: 1) CWI demonstrates superior extraction accuracy for various types of water when compared with other water indices, underscoring its higher precision and broader applicability. 2) By integrating CWI with the water frequency method, we propose an effective approach for dynamically monitoring water. This method accurately reflects changes in water under different conditions within dense time-sequence images. 3) Our results highlight the method's ability to precisely monitor dynamic water changes, efficiently extract various water types from Sentinel-2 data, and its potential for large-scale surface water mapping applications