Seed Dispersal Of Attalea Phalerata (palmae) By Crested Caracaras (caracara Plancus) In The Pantanal And A Review Of Frugivory By Raptors

We observed Crested caracaras (Caracara plancus) consuming and dispersing fruits of the palm Attalea phalerata at Pantanal, Brazil. We reviewed the literature of seed dispersal by raptors and suggest that raptors may affect seed dispersal by three different paths: secondary seed dispersal by preying on frugivorous birds, primary seed dispersal of ornithocoric fruits and primary seed dispersal of large, lipid-rich fruits. The latter path may be an important long-distance seed dispersal mechanism for large seeds.122133135Brown, L.H., Amadon, D., (1968) Eagles, Hawks & Falcons of the World, , Wellfleet Press, New JerseyBrown, L.H., Urban, E.K., Newman, K., (1982) The Birds of Africa, , Academic Press, LondonBuskirk, W.H., Lechner, M., Frugivory by swallow-tailed kites in Costa Rica (1978) Auk, 95, pp. 767-768Carciofi, A.C., Estudos sobre nutrição de psitacídeos em vida livre: O exemplo da Arara-Azul (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus) (2002) Ecologia e conservação de psitacídeos no Brasil, , M. 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Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

The Role Of Predator Overlap In The Robustness And Extinction Of A Four Species Predatorprey Network

Predators and preys often form species networks with asymmetric patterns of interaction. We study the dynamics of a four species network consisting of two weakly connected predatorprey pairs. We focus our analysis on the effects of the cross interaction between the predator of the first pair and the prey of the second pair. This is an example where the predator overlap, which is the proportion of predators that a given prey shares with other preys, is not uniform across the network due to asymmetries in patterns of interaction. We explore the behavior of the system under different interaction strengths and study the dynamics of survival and extinction. In particular, we consider situations in which the four species have initial populations lower than their long-term equilibrium, simulating catastrophic situations in which their abundances are reduced due to human action or environmental change. We show that, under these reduced initial conditions, and depending on the strength of the cross interaction, the populations tend to oscillate before re-equilibrating, disturbing the community equilibrium and sometimes reaching values that are only a small fraction of the equilibrium population, potentially leading to their extinction. We predict that, contrary to one's intuition, the most likely scenario is the extinction of the less predated preys. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.3892147254733(1975) Ecology and Evolution of Communities, , M. Cody, J. Diamond, Belknap Press New YorkPimm, S.L., (2002) Food Webs, , 2nd ed. Chicago University Press New YorkSol, R.V., Montoya, J.M., Complexity and fagility in ecological networks (2001) Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, 268, pp. 2039-2045Wilburn, H.M., Fauth, J.E., Experimental aquatic food webs: Interactions between two predators and two prey (1990) The American Naturalist, 135 (2), p. 176Vazquez, D.P., Aizen, M.A., Asymmetric specialization: A pervasive feature of plant-pollinator interactions (2004) Ecology, 85, pp. 1251-1257Bascompte, J., Jordano, P., Melian, C.J., Olesen, J.M., The nested assembly of plant animal mutualistic networks (2003) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 100, pp. 9383-9387Guimaraes, P.R., Rico-Gray, V., Dos Reis, S.F., Thompson, J.N., Asymmetries in specialization in ant-plant mutualistic networks (2006) Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 273, pp. 2041-2047. , 101098/rspb20063548Guimaraes, P.R., Sazima, C., Dos Reis, S.F., Sazima, I., The nested structure of marine cleaning symbiosis: Is it like flowers and bees? 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Investigating Fragility In Plant-frugivore Networks: A Case Study Of The Atlantic Forest In Brazil

[No abstract available]561578Albert, R., Barabási, A.L., Statistical mechanics of complex networks (2002) Reviews in Modern Physics, 74, pp. 47-97Atmar, W., Patterson, B.D., The measure of order and disorder in the distribution of species in fragmented habitat (1993) Oecologia, 96, pp. 373-382Bascompte, J., Jordano, P., Melián, C.J., Olesen, J.M., The nested assembly of plant-animal mutualistic networks (2003) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 100, pp. 9383-9387Brooks, T., Tobias, J., Balmford, A., Deforestation and bird extinctions in the Atlantic forest (1999) Animal Conservation, 2, pp. 211-222Buchmann, S., Nabhan, G.P., (1996) The Forgotten Pollinators, , Island Press/Shearwater Books, Washington DC/Covelo, CaliforniaCardoso da Silva, J.M., Tabarelli, M., Tree species impoverishment and the future flora of the Atlantic forest of northeast Brazil (2000) Nature, 404, pp. 72-74Carvalho, M.P., Cezare, C.H.G., Costa, C.G., da Cunha, R.G.T., Dornelles, S.S., Fialho, M.S., Guix, J.C., Serra, A., Description of the study areas (2002) Censuses of vertebrates in a Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest Area: The Paranapiacaba Fragment, pp. 27-48. , In: Mateos, E., Guix, J.C., Serra, A. and Pisciotta, K. (eds) University of Barcelona, Barcelona, SpainChiarello, A.G., Density and population size of mammals in remnants of Brazilian Atlantic forest (2000) Conservation Biology, 14, pp. 1649-1657de Nooy, W., Mrvar, A., Batagelj, V., (2005) Exploratory Social Network Analysis with Pajek, , Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UKde Vivo, M., Gregorin, R., Mamíferos (2001) Secretaria de Estado do Meio Ambient, Fundação para a Conservação e a Produção Florestal do Estado de São Paulo, pp. 116-123. , In: Intervales. 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Factors Affecting Seed Predation Of Eriotheca Gracilipes (bombacaceae) By Parakeets In A Cerrado Fragment

Psittacids are important pre-dispersal seed predators. However, little is known about the parameters that may determine seed predation rates by these birds, such as plants' characteristics and microhabitat. Eriotheca gracilipes (Bombacaceae) is a semi-deciduous tree widely distributed in the Brazilian cerrado. The fruits are dehiscent pods and the seeds are wind-dispersed. Some individuals lose their leaves during the fruiting season, getting very conspicuous. Here we tested the hypothesis that the absence of leaves in E. gracilipes during the fruiting season may increase pre-dispersal seed predation by psittacids. We also tested the hypotheses that (1) seed predation intensity increases with increasing plant size and (2) number of fruits, (3) seed predation decreases with the increasing number of conspecific plants in a range of 15 m, and (4) seed predation intensity is lower in plants with higher vegetation cover over their crowns. The small parakeet Brotogeris versicolurus was the only species observed preying upon the seeds of E. gracilipes. The percentage of fruits damaged by the parakeets ranged from 0 to 100% (66.98 ± 43.11%, n = 72) among the different plants. Our data give weak support to the hypothesis that the absence of leaves may facilitate plants and/or fruits detection by the parakeets. However, seed predation intensity was significantly affected by crop size. The hypothesis that conspecific fruiting plants surrounding the studied individuals may reduce predation rate was not supported. Nevertheless, trees without higher vegetation cover over their crowns were significantly affected by increased seed predation. This suggests that seed predation by parakeets can be a potential selective factor influencing fruit crop sizes in E. gracilipes. © 2007 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.332240245Barros, Y.B., 1995. 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Bird Community Composition And Species Abundance On Two Inshore Islands In The Atlantic Forest Region Of Brazil

Many endemic birds are threatened with extinction in Brazil's Atlantic forest and several inshore islands have been identified as key areas for bird conservation. We used a point count method to record forest birds on two of these islands, in the 22,500 ha Ilha do Cardoso State Park and the 5,600 ha Ilha Grande State Park, 450 km to the northeast. Our estimates of bird species richness was higher on Cardoso than Ilha Grande (75 versus 57 species), as was species diversity, and importance of Red List species (8 versus 2 species). The contribution of various families to the avifauna differed between the islands with Columbidae and Pipridae more common on Ilha Grande, and Trochilidae, Picidae and Formicariidae more dominant on Cardoso. Noteworthy were the abundance of Turdidae and the rarity of Psittacidae on both islands as compared to other sites in the region. Abundance of individual species on the two islands was uncorrelated. In fact, 34% and 49% of the species were recorded exclusively on Ilha Grande and Cardoso respectively. The avifauna, particularly on Ilha Grande, is depauperate and dominated by a few species with density estimates generally exceeding those found elsewhere in the neotropics. On Ilha Grande, these dominant species were mainly edge and secondary forest species.112181187Aleixo, A., Galetti, M., The conservation of the avifauna in a lowland Atlantic forest in south-east Brazil (1997) Bird Cons. Internatn, 7, pp. 235-261Anjos, dos, L., And Boçon, R., Bird communities in natural forest patches in southern Brazil (1999) Wilson Bull, 111, pp. 397-414Avanzo, V.C., Sanfilippo, L.F., Levantamento preliminar da avifauna de Ilha Comprida, São Paulo. (2000) Bol. CEO, 14, pp. 10-14Bell, H.L., A bird community of lowland rainforest in New Guinea. I. Composition and density of the avifauna (1982) Emu, 82, pp. 24-41(2000) Threatened birds of the world, , BirdLife International , Barcelona and Cambridge, UK: Lynx Editions and BirdLife InternationalBlake, J.G., Temporal variation in point counts of birds in a lowland wet forest in Costa Rica (1992) Condor, 94, pp. 265-275Buckland, S.T., Anderson, D.R., Burnham, K.P., Laake, J.L., Borchers, D.L., Thomas, L., (2001) Introduction to Distance Sampling: Estimating abundance of biological Population, , Oxford University Press, Oxford, UKGaletti, M., Martuscelli, P., Olmos, F., Aleixo, A., Ecology and conservation of the Jacutinga Pipile jacutinga in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil (1997) Biol. Cons, 82, pp. 31-39Göerck, J.M., Patterns of Rarity in the Birds of the Atlantic Forest of Brazil (1997) Cons. 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Spatial Mating Networks In Insect-pollinated Plants

Gene flow in plant populations is largely determined by landscape heterogeneity. Both the shape of the pollination kernel and the spatial distribution of trees affect the distribution of pollen grains and the genotypes they harbour, but little is known about the relative contribution of each of these two factors. Using genetic markers we build a spatial network of pollination events between any two trees in a population of Prunus mahaleb, an insect-pollinated plant. Then, we apply tools from the science of complex networks to characterize the structure of such a mating network. Although the distribution of the number of pollen donors per tree is quite homogeneous, the identity of donors is distributed heterogeneously across the population. This results in a population structured in well-defined modules or compartments, formed by a group of mother trees and their shared pollen donors. Long-distance pollination events decrease the modular structure by favouring mating among all available mates. This increases gene flow across the entire population, reducing its genetic structure, and potentially decreasing the role of genetic drift. © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.115490498Albert, R., Barabási, A.-L., Jeong, H., Error and attack tolerance in complex networks (2000) Nature, 406, pp. 378-382Austerlitz, F., Smouse, P.E., Two-generation analysis of pollen flow across a landscape. II. Relation between Phi(ft), pollen dispersal and interfemale distance (2001) Genetics, 157, pp. 851-857Austerlitz, F., Dick, C.W., Dutech, C., Klein, E.K., Oddou-Muratorio, S., Smouse, P.E., Using genetic markers to estimate the pollen dispersal curve (2004) Mol. Ecol., 13, pp. 937-954Barrett, S.C.H., Harder, L.D., Ecology and evolution of plant mating (1996) Trends Ecol. Evol., 11, pp. A73-A79Bascompte, J., Networks in ecology (2007) Basic Appl. Ecol., 8, pp. 485-490Campbell Grant, E.H., Lowe, W.H., Fagan, W.F., Living in the branches: Population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks (2007) Ecol. Lett., 10, pp. 165-175Dyer, R.J., Nason, J., Population graphs: The graph theoretic shape of genetic structure (2004) Mol. Ecol., 13, pp. 1713-1727Epperson, B.K., (2003) Geographical Genetics., , Princeton University Press, PrincetonFortuna, M.A., Gómez-Rodríguez, C., Bascompte, J., Spatial network structure and amphibian persistence in stochastic environments (2006) Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B, 273, pp. 1429-1434García, C., Arroyo, J.M., Godoy, J.A., Jordano, P., Mating patterns, pollen dispersal, and the ecological maternal neighbourhood in a Prunus mahaleb population (2005) Mol. Ecol., 14, pp. 1821-1830García, C., Jordano, P., Godoy, J.A., Contemporary pollen and seed dispersal patterns and the spatial genetic structure in a Prunus mahaleb population (2007) Mol. Ecol., 16, pp. 1947-1955Gérard, P.R., Klein, E.K., Austerlitz, F., Fernández- Manjarrés, J.F., Frascaria-Lacoste, N., Assortative mating and differential male mating success in an ash hybrid zone population (2006) BMC Evol. Biol., 6, p. 96Godoy, J.A., Jordano, P., Seed dispersal by animals: Exact identification of source trees with endocarp DNA microsatellites (2001) Mol. Ecol., 10, pp. 2275-2283Guimerà, R., Amaral, L.A.N., Functional cartography of complex metabolic networks (2005) Nature, 433, pp. 895-900Hamrick, J.L., Murawski, D.A., Nason, J.D., The influence of seed dispersal mechanisms on the genetic structure of tropical tree populations (1993) Vegetatio, 107-108, pp. 281-297Jordano, P., Pollination biology of Prunus mahaleb deferred consequences of gender variation for fecundity and seed size (1993) Biol. J. 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A Neutral-niche Theory Of Nestedness In Mutualistic Networks

Recently, there has been a vigorous interest in community ecology about the structure of mutualistic networks and its importance for species persistence and coevolution. However, the mechanisms shaping mutualistic networks have been rarely explored. Here we extend for the first time the neutral theory of biodiversity to a multi trophic system. We focus on nestedness, a distinctive pattern of mutualistic community assembly showing two characteristics, namely, asymmetrical specialization (specialists interacting with generalists) and a generalist core (generalists interacting with generalists). We investigate the importance of relative species abundance (RSA) for the nested assembly of plant-animal mutualistic networks. Our results show that neutral mutualistic communities give rise to networks considerably more nested than real communities. RSA explains 60-70% of nested patterns in two real communities studied here, while 30-40% of nestedness is still unexplained. The nested pattern in real communities is better explained when we introduce interaction-specific species traits such as forbidden links and intensity of dependence (relative importance of fruits for the diet of a frugivore) in our analysis. The fact that neutral mutualistic communities exhibit a perfectly nested structure and do not show a random or compartmentalized structure, underlines the importance of RSA in the assembly of mutualistic networks. © 2008 The Authors.1171116091618Adler, P.B., A niche for neutrality (2007) Ecol. Lett., 10, pp. 95-104Alonso, D., The merits of neutral theory (2006) Trends Ecol. Evol., 21, pp. 451-457Atmar, W., Patterson, B.D., The measure of order and disorder in the distribution of species in fragmented habitat (1993) Oecologia, 96, pp. 373-382Bascompte, J., The nested assembly of plant-animal mutualistic networks (2003) Proc. Natl Acad. 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Nat., 129, pp. 657-677Jordano, P., Diet, fruit choice and variation in body condition of fru-givorous warblers in mediterranean scrubland (1988) Ardea, 76, pp. 193-209Jordano, P., Geographical ecology and variation of plant-seed disperser interactions: Southern Spanish junipers and frugivorous thrushes (1993) Plant Ecol., 107, pp. 85-104Jordano, P., Spatial and temporal variation in the avian-frugivore assemblage of prunus mahaleb - Patterns and consequences (1994) Oikos, 113, pp. 174-184Jordano, P., Frugivore-mediated selection on fruit and seed size-birds and st lucies cherry, Prunus mahaleb (1995) Ecology, 76, pp. 2627-2639Jordano, P., Fruits and frugivory (2000) Seeds: The Ecology of Regeneration in Plant Communities., pp. 125-166. , Fenner, M. Commonwealth Agric. Bureau IntJordano, P., Schupp, E.W., Seed disperser effectiveness: The quantity component and patterns of seed rain for Prunus mahaleb (2000) Ecol. 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