Global implications of Trump’s fiscal stimulus

Recent commentary on the presidential election has touched on the domestic appeal of Trump’s protectionist, “America first” economic policy. LSE Visiting Fellow Guillermo Felices reflects on the broader implications of this protectionist stance, and argues that an international backlash could undermine the sustainability of this economic position. He also notes that though the anti-establishment sentiment seen in the UK and US may reappear in European elections this coming year, their capacity to pursue a similarly radical policy shift is limited

Caminos entrelazados : la realidad del empleo urbano en el Perú

El conjunto de cinco capítulos que constituyen este libro es un primer intento por conocer la realidad del empleo urbano en el país, considerando el estado actual de la teoría económica en estos temas y los mejores datos disponibles para la estimación empírica. Este trabajo servirá, en primer término, como un compendio de enfoques modernos de economía laboral accesible a estudiantes y profesionales en el área de la economía y otras ciencias sociales. En segundo término, este libro contribuirá a una mejor comprensión de cómo funcionan la oferta y demanda de trabajo en el país, qué debe dejarse al equilibrio pleno de libre mercado y dónde existen todavía imperfecciones de mercado para que un Estado orientador y promotor induzca equilibrios más competitivos y transparentes

La influencia de la responsabilidad social empresarial en el comportamiento de compra de los consumidores de revistas, varones de 25 a 30 años, en Lima Metropolitana, Perú

Esta investigación busca determinar la influencia que las acciones de Responsabilidad Social Empresarial ejercen en el comportamiento de compra de revistas de los peruanos de entre 25 y 30 años de edad, a nivel de Lima Metropolitana, cuyo resultado nos permite ampliar la visión empresarial de lo estrictamente económico a la preocupación por el impacto en el medio ambiente y en su entorno social tanto interno como externo. En este sentido la RSE ha ganado gran relevancia en el mundo entero, sin embargo, en el Perú son muy pocas las investigaciones relacionadas a la RSE, que demuestren el verdadero impacto en el consumidor. Se implementó un diseño experimental bajo la Metodología de los Modelos de Elección Discreta con el objetivo de poder cuantificar la intención de compra y la disposición a pagar por las acciones de responsabilidad social desarrolladas por las empresas. El experimento se llevó a cabo utilizando una muestra por conveniencia de 132 consumidores varones de Lima Metropolitana, en el mercado de revistas, y cuyas edades fluctúan entre 25 y 30 años. Esta tesis es una ampliación del alcance de la investigación doctoral del profesor Percy Samoel Marquina Feldman, “La influencia de la responsabilidad social empresarial en el comportamiento de compra de los consumidores peruanos” (CENTRUM, Centro de Negocios de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Lima 2009), la misma que busca validar si la relación identificada originalmente por el profesor Marquina también se presenta en la categoría de revistas, tal como el autor lo sugiere en sus recomendaciones finales. Con la autorización del autor, se ha utilizado partes de su tesis, particularmente en lo que se refiere a la revisión de la literatura y el métodoThis research seeks to determine the influence that Corporate Social Responsibility actions have on buying behavior of magazines by Peruvians with ages between 25 and 30 years old, in Lima Metropolitana, which result allows us to expand the business view of the strictly economic aspect to concerns about the impact on the environment and its social environment both internally and externally. In this sense, CSR has gained great importance in the world; however, in Peru very few research findings related to CSR, that actually demonstrates the true impact on the consumer. An experimental design based on the Discrete Choice Model Methodology was implemented with the aim of quantifying the purchase intention and willingness to pay for the actions of social responsibility developed by companies. The experiment was conducted using a convenience sample of 132 male consumers from Lima, in the magazine industry, whose ages range between 25 and 30. This thesis is an extension of the doctoral research of Professor Percy Samoel Marquina Feldman, "The influence of corporate social responsibility on buying behavior of Peruvian consumers” (CENTRUM, Business Center of the Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru. Lima 2009), the same that seeks to validate whether the relationship, originally identified by Professor Marquina, is also presented in the magazine category, as the author suggests in its final recommendations. With the author's permission, parts of his thesis have been used, particularly in regard to the literature and method review.Tesi

Intertemporal substitution and household production in labour supply

The demands on a person's time vary over their working life, so that the years in which they might be expected to devote most time to work may also be the period when other commitments, such as bringing up children, are most pressing. Estimates of the intertemporal labour supply elasticity that do not take this possibility into account are likely to be biased. Recent research that uses US data from three time-use surveys has found evidence for a large downward bias to the labour supply elasticity. This paper uses a large UK survey to test this hypothesis. It finds convincing evidence for a similar downward bias in estimates of the UK labour supply elasticity for males. The analysis is extended by differentiating by sex, marital status, skill and business cycle. The bias appears in every case, but is less evident for married men. The labour supply elasticity for single women is, interestingly, similar to that for single men.

Are EME indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?

This paper assesses the extent to which common factors underlie indicators of vulnerability to financial crises in emerging market economies and whether this link is changing over time. We use a Bayesian dynamic common factor model to estimate their common component in a sample of up to 41 countries including both developed as well as emerging economies. This permits us to interpret the component in common to both of them as a global factor. We introduce time-variation into the model to investigate whether indicators are decoupling from global factors over time. While decoupling can be observed in a few cases, the exposure to global factors in most countries tends to fluctuate around the mean. Broadly speaking then, the answer is no.Financial crises; Bayesian dynamic common factor models; decoupling

Estimating the determinants of capital flows to emerging market economies: a maximum likelihood disequilibrium approach

This paper studies the determinants of capital flows defined as gross external bond and syndicated loan issuance to a group of emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1992. We follow the previous literature by estimating an explicit disequilibrium demand and supply model of capital flows using maximum likelihood techniques. We use the estimated supply and demand determinants to calculate time-varying probabilities of international supply-side rationing, estimating the model for the asset class as a whole. We then explore applications to individual EMEs including Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Korea, Mexico, Poland and Thailand using a longer time period than in previous work. For our selection of EMEs taken together, the main determinants of the supply of capital from the rest of the world are credit ratings, EME spreads, world growth and US high-yield spreads. On the demand side, the EME equity index has a positive effect on capital flows, while EME spreads and commodity prices have a negative one. The applications to individual countries show similar signs. Finally, we calculate the probability of capital crunch for EMEs in aggregate and for some countries individually.Capital flows; disequilibrium; emerging markets; rationing.

International financial transmission: emerging and mature markets

With an increasingly integrated global financial system, we frequently observe that shocks to individual asset markets affect financial markets worldwide. The aim of this paper is to quantify the comovements between bond markets in the US and emerging market economies using daily data from prior to the East Asian crisis through to the early stages of the current global financial crisis. We exploit the changing volatility of the data to fully identify a structural VAR, without imposing ad hoc restrictions. We find that shocks that widen emerging market sovereign debt (EMBIG) spreads have a negative effect on US interest rates in the short run (consistent with 'flight to quality' effects), while shocks that increase US interest rates raise EMBIG spreads over longer horizons (consistent with 'financing cost' or 'search for yield' effects). We also find that shocks that increase EMBIG spreads tend to widen US high-yield spreads and vice versa, constituting an important contagion channel through which crises in emerging market economies can affect mature markets. Forecast error variance decompositions show that shocks to US long rates can explain around 60%-70% of the variation of EMBIG and US high-yield spreads.