The Theory of Storage and Price Dynamics of Agricultural Commodity Futures: the Case of Corn and Wheat

Using a restricted version of the BEKK model it is tested an implication of the theory of storage that supply-and-demand fundamentals affect the price dynamics of agricultural commodities. The commodities under analysis are corn and wheat. An interest-storage-adjusted-spread was used as a proxy variable for supply-and-demand fundamentals to test the aforementioned implication for both commodities. It is also tested the Samuelson hypothesis that spot prices have higher volatility than futures prices. It is found that the interest-storage-adjusted-spread has had a statistically significant positive influence on the spot and futures returns for both commodities. Likewise, the results also show that spot price returns have higher volatility compared to futures price returns which is consistent with the Samuelson hypothesis. The results of the aforementioned tests are consistent with both theories and with the existing literature related to commodity futures.Agricultural commodities, BEKK model, multivariate GARCH, Samuelson hypothesis, theory of storage

Parametric vs. non-parametric methods for estimating option implied risk-neutral densities: the case of the exchange rate Mexican peso – US dollar.

This research paper presents statistical comparisons between two methods that are commonly used to estimate option implied Risk-Neutral Densities (RND). These are: 1) mixture of lognormals (MXL); and, 2) volatility function technique (VFT). The former is a parametric method whilst the latter is a non-parametric approach. The RNDs are extracted from over-thecounter European-style options on the Mexican Peso–US Dollar exchange rate. The non-parametric method was the superior one for out-of-sample evaluations. The implied mean, median and mode were, in general, statistically different between the competing approaches. It is recommended to apply the VFT instead of the MXL given that the former has superior accuracy and it can be estimated when there is a relatively short crosssection of option exercise price range. The results have implications for financial investors and policy makers given that they could use the information content in options to analyze market’s perceptions about the future expected variability of the financial asset under study.currency option implied volatility, exchange rate, parametric methods, non-parametric methods, risk-neutral densities

The Theory of Storage and Price Dynamics of Agricultural Commodity Futures: the Case of Corn and Wheat

Using a restricted version of the BEKK model it is tested an implication of the theory of storage that supply-and-demand fundamentals affect the price dynamics of agricultural commodities. The commodities under analysis are corn and wheat. An interest-storage-adjusted-spread was used as a proxy variable for supply-and-demand fundamentals to test the aforementioned implication for both commodities. It is also tested the Samuelson hypothesis that spot prices have higher volatility than futures prices. It is found that the interest-storage-adjusted-spread has had a statistically significant positive influence on the spot and futures returns for both commodities. Likewise, the results also show that spot price returns have higher volatility compared to futures price returns which is consistent with the Samuelson hypothesis. The results of the aforementioned tests are consistent with both theories and with the existing literature related to commodity futures. JEL Classification: C22, G10, Q14

Parametric vs. non-parametric methods for estimating option implied risk-neutral densities: the case of the exchange rate Mexican peso – US dollar

This research paper presents statistical comparisons between two methods that are commonly used to estimate option implied Risk-Neutral Densities (RND). These are: 1) mixture of lognormals (MXL); and, 2) volatility function technique (VFT). The former is a parametric method whilst the latter is a non-parametric approach. The RNDs are extracted from over-thecounter European-style options on the Mexican Peso–US Dollar exchange rate. The non-parametric method was the superior one for out-of-sample evaluations. The implied mean, median and mode were, in general, statistically different between the competing approaches. It is recommended to apply the VFT instead of the MXL given that the former has superior accuracy and it can be estimated when there is a relatively short crosssection of option exercise price range. The results have implications for financial investors and policy makers given that they could use the information content in options to analyze market’s perceptions about the future expected variability of the financial asset under study. Clasificación JEL: C14, C52, F31, G13

"Central Bank Exchange Rate Interventions and Market Expectations: The Case of México During the Financial Crisis 2008-2009 "

The objective of this paper is to examine if the exchange-rate interventions of the Central Bank of Mexico during the 2008-2009 financial crisis had an effect on the (Mexican Peso-US Dollar) exchange rate market expectations. Expectations are generated by Risk-Neutral Densities (RNDs) extracted from option prices; the used method to estimate RNDs is the volatility function technique proposed by Malz (1997). The obtained results show that interventions caused changes in expectations around the date of the intervention. There is a pattern of a statistically significant decreasing of the mean and variance in the implied exchange rate immediately after the period of intervention. The higher implied moments decrease as well. Finally, it was also found a causality effect that runs in both directions; between exchange-rate expectations and Central Bank interventions. El objetivo de esta investigación consiste en examinar si las intervenciones en el tipo de cambio por el Banco Central de México durante el período de la crisis financiera de 2008-2009 influyeron en el tipo de cambio (peso mexicano-dólar estadounidense) a precios de mercado. Las expectativas se generan mediante una Densidad de Riesgo-Neutral (DNR) obtenida de los precios de opciones; el método utilizado para estimar la DNR es la técnica de la función de la volatilidad propuesta por Malz (1997). Los resultados obtenidos muestran que las intervenciones causaron cambios en las expectativas en torno a la fecha de la intervención. Así mismo, se detecta un patrón en la disminución, estadísticamente significativa, de la media y la varianza en el tipo de cambio implícito inmediatamente después del período de intervención. Los momentos implícitos de orden superior también disminuyen. Por último se encontró un efecto de causalidad que funciona en ambas direcciones; entre las expectativas de tipos de cambio y las intervenciones del Banco Central

"Exchange Rate Risk Premium: An Analysis of its Determinants for the Mexican Peso-USD "

The objective of this paper is to analyze what are the main determinants of the exchange rate risk premium (ERP). The empirical case is conducted for the daily Mexican peso-USD for a sample period from 2007 until 2015. According to the results the ERP is influenced by several financial variables which are the VIX, a carry trade index, the EMBI and the forward premium. These results are in line with previous results in the literature that have proven that exchange rate premia are influenced by several financial variables, which are usually considered as "proxies" of risk. El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar cuáles son los principales determinantes de la prima de riesgo de tipo de cambio (ERP por sus siglas en inglés). El caso empírico se lleva a cabo para el peso-dólar diario durante un período a partir de 2007 y hasta 2015. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos el ERP está influenciado por diversas variables financieras que son el VIX, un Índice de carry trade, el EMBI y la prima por ordenes de transacciones en contratos de derivados. Estos resultados están en línea con los resultados previos en la literatura que han demostrado que las primas de tipo de cambio son influenciados por diversas variables financieras, que por lo general se consideran como "proxies" de riesgo

Stress-Testing para carteras de crédito del Sistema Bancario Mexicano

The aim of this paper is to present a scheme to assess vulnerability to adverse macroeconomic shocks in aggregate loan portfolios of the Mexican banking system. The used database consists of monthly aggregate information of the radius between nonperforming loans and total loans, for the period 2000-2014, for a total of 65 financial institutions. Through the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) methodology, we estimated an equations system to link the default probability and macroeconomic factors, the obtained system was used to estimate the probability distributions, unconditional and conditional upon the occurrence of particular shocks in relevant macroeconomic variables. The outcome indicates that the estimated loss from the different distributions under stress does not increase significantly, so, we conclude that the risk in this sector is moderate under the selected scenarios. The most important result of the work is the obtained relation between default probabilities and stressed macroeconomic factors, but these results are limited by the probability of ocurrence of these induced stress scenarios and the horizon of the estimated econometric model.El objetivo del presente trabajo es generar un esquema que permita evaluar la vulnerabilidad de las carteras de crédito de instituciones del Sistema Bancario Mexicano ante choques macroeconómicos adversos. Con éste fin, se emplearon datos del radio entre cartera vencida y total, de 2000 a 2014, para 65 instituciones financieras. A través del método Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR), se estimó un sistema de ecuaciones que relaciona los indicadores de probabilidad de incumplimiento con diversos factores macroecon´omicos, el cual fue utilizado para estimar distribuciones de probabilidad, una incondicional y otras condicionadas a la ocurrencia de choques particulares en las variables macroeconómicas, para evaluar el impacto sobre las probabilidades de incumplimiento. Los resultados indican que la pérdida estimada en situaciones de estrés no aumenta significativamente, por lo que se concluye que el riesgo es moderado bajo los escenarios seleccionados. El valor del documento consiste en relacionardiversos factores macroeconómicos con el incumplimiento en las carteras de crédito; cabe señalar que los resultados están limitados a la ocurrencia de los escenarios de estrés inducidos y el horizonte de estimación del modelo econométrico