Dynamic survival analysis of the data from the Brazilian Survey of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Liver Transplantation

INTRODUÇÃO: Enquanto a análise de sobrevida tradicional estima inadequadamente o prognóstico futuro dada alguma sobrevida inicial, a sobrevida condicional ajusta a sobrevida futura pela já observada, permitindo a compreensão da distribuição temporal do impacto dos preditores. OBJETIVOS: Estimar e analisar as sobrevidas global e livre de doença até o décimo ano pós-operatório; identificar preditores independentes destes desfechos; estimar e analisar as sobrevidas condicionais global e livre de doença de cinco anos dada a sobrevida até o quinto ano pós-operatório; analisar o comportamento dos preditores dos desfechos ao longo do tempo. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo envolvendo 13 centros brasileiros. Dados clínicos, radiológicos e anatomopatológicos foram considerados. Utilizou-se o método de Kaplan-Meier com o teste log-rank para comparar fatores e a regressão de Cox obteve a razão de riscos. A sobrevida condicional foi calculada a partir das tábuas de sobrevida e a diferença padronizada reavaliou as variáveis consideradas significativas. RESULTADOS: 1157 pacientes foram incluídos. A sobrevida global de 1, 3, 5, 7 e 10 anos foi 78,6%, 72,3%, 66,0%, 61,3% e 59,4%, respectivamente. Foram preditoras de sobrevida global: idade [HR 1,04 (IC 95% 1,02-1,06), p 0.000], sexo feminino [HR 1,35 (IC 95% 1,02-1,79), p 0.038], recidiva pós-operatória do CHC [HR 1,35 (IC 95% 1,08-1,79), p 0.003], diâmetro do maior nódulo viável no explante [HR 1,01 (IC95% 1,01-1,02), p 0.006], invasão vascular não discriminada [HR 3,18 (IC95% 1,48-6,85), p 0.004], invasão micro [HR 1,65 (IC 95% 1,27-2,15), p 0.001] e macrovascular [HR 2,25 (IC 95% 1,30-3,89), p 0.000]. A sobrevida condicional global de 5 anos ao final do 1°, 3° e 5° anos foi 79,5%, 82,2% e 90,0%, respectivamente. As variáveis preditoras na análise univariada tiveram comportamento errático ao longo do tempo. A sobrevida atuarial livre de doença em 1, 3, 5, 7 e 10 anos foi 94,2%, 90,1%, 89,8%, 87,5% e 87,5%, respectivamente. Foram preditoras de sobrevida livre de doença: nível sérico de alfa-fetoproteína no diagnóstico [HR 1,0 (IC 95% 1,01-1,02), p 0.000], CHC dentro do critério de Milão no diagnóstico [HR 0,42 (IC 95% 0,22-0,80), p 0.008], explante dentro do critério de Milão [HR 0,34 (IC 95% 0,17-0,68), p 0.002], explante com neoplasia pouco diferenciada ou hepatocolangiocarcinoma [HR 3,04 (IC 95% 1,75-5,30), p 0.000], invasão vascular não discriminada [HR 15,72 (IC 95% 3,44-71,83), p 0.000], invasão micro [HR 3,40 (IC 95% 1,83-6,28), p 0.000] e macrovascular [HR 11,96 (IC 95% 5,20-27,47), p 0.000]. A sobrevida condicional livre de doença de 5 anos ao final do 1°, 3° e 5° anos foi 94,1%, 97,1% e 97,4%, respectivamente. Variáveis preditoras na análise univariada em geral tem maior impacto no primeiro ou segundo ano. CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados do transplante no Brasil foram comparáveis àqueles observados nos EUA e Europa. Considerando-se as perdas precoces, as curvas de sobrevida pelo método Kaplan-Meier foram pessimistas e a análise de sobrevida condicional fornece outra perspectiva para estes dados. O comportamento das variáveis determinantes de prognóstico não é uniforme ao longo do tempoINTRODUCTION: Traditional survival analysis provides inadequate estimates of the future prognosis for patients with accrued survival. Conversely, conditional survival adjusts future survival by the already accrued survival. It provides insights into the temporal distribution of the effect of predictors. OBJECTIVES: To estimate and to analyse overall and disease free survival until the 10th post-operative year; to identify independent predictors of these outcomes; to estimate and to analyse 5-year overall and disease free conditional survival until the 5th post-operative year; to analyse the behaviour of the predictors of outcomes during follow-up. METHODS: Retrospective cohort from 13 Brazilian transplantation centers. Clinical, radiological, and anatomopathological data were considered. The Kaplan-Meier method with the longrank test for the comparison of factors was applied and the Cox proportional hazards model provided the hazard ratios. Conditional survival was calculated through life tables, while differences between significative variables were reassessed by the standardized difference. RESULTS: 1157 patients were included. Overall survival in 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 years was 78.6%, 72.3%, 66.0%, 61.3%, and 59.4%, respectively. 350 (30.3%) deaths were observed, 240 (68.6%) in the 1st year. Overall survival was independently predicted by age [HR 1.04 (95% CI 1.02-1.06), p 0.000], female sex [HR 1.35 (95% CI 1.02-1.79), p 0.038], post-operative HCC recurrence [HR 1.35 (95% CI 1.08-1.79), p 0.003], diameter of the largest viable nodule on the explant [HR 1.01 (95% CI 1.01-1.02), p 0.006], non-discriminated vascular invasion [HR 3.18 (95% CI 1.48-6.85), p 0.004], micro [HR 1.65 (95% CI 1.27-2.15), p 0.001] and macrovascular invasion [HR 2.25 (95% CI 1.30-3.89), p 0.000]. 5-year overall conditional survival at the end of the 1st, 3rd and 5th post-operative years was 79.5%, 82.2%, and 90.0%, respectively. Predictors of overall survival identified on univariate analysis presented an erratic behaviour over time. Disease free survival in 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 years was 94.2%, 90.1%, 89.8%, 87.5%, and 87.5%, respectively. 97 (8.4%) reccurrences occurred. Disease free survival was independently predicted by serum alpha-fetoprotein upon diagnosis [HR 1.0 (95% CI 1.01-1.02), p 0.000], HCC within the Milan criteria upon diagnosis [HR 0.42 (95% CI 0.22-0.80), p 0.008], explant within the Milan criteria [HR 0.34 (95% CI 0.17-0.68), p 0.002], undifferentiated tumor or hepatocholangiocarcinoma on the explant [HR 3.04 (95% CI 1.75-5.30), p 0.000], non-discriminated vascular invasion [HR 15.72 (95% CI 3.44-71.83), p 0.000], micro [HR 3.40 (95% CI 1.83-6.28), p 0.000], and macrovascular invasion [HR 11.96 (95% CI 5.20-27.47), p 0.000]. 5-year disease free conditional survival at the end of the 1st, 3rd and 5th post-operative years was 94.1%, 97.1%, and 97.4%, respectively. Predictors of recurrence on the univariate analysis usually presented with greater impact during the 1st or 2nd post-operative year. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes of liver transplantation in Brazil were comparable to those from the US and Europe. Survival estimates through the Kaplan-Meier method were pessimistic due to greater early losses. Conditional survival offers a different perspective for the same data. The behaviour of predictive values varies over tim

Quadruple therapy with furazolidone for retreatment in patients with peptic ulcer disease

AIM: To establish the efficacy and safety of a 7-d therapeutic regimen using omeprazole, bismuth subcitrate, furazolidone and amoxicillin in patients with peptic ulcer disease who had been previously treated with other therapeutic regimens without success

Genetic Risk for Alcoholic Chronic Pancreatitis

In recent years many studies have examined the genetic predisposition to pancreatic diseases. Pancreatic disease of an alcoholic etiology was determined to be a multi-factorial disease, where environmental factors interact with the genetic profile of the individual. In this review we discuss the main results from studies examining the frequency of genetic mutations in alcoholic chronic pancreatitis

Liver Transplantation in Latin America: the State-of-the-Art and Future Trends

We reviewed the current status of liver transplantation in Latin America. We used data from the Latin American and Caribbean Transplant Society and national organizations and societies, as well as information obtained from local transplant leaders. Latin America has a population of 589 million (8.5% of world population) and more than 2,500 liver transplantations are performed yearly (17% of world activity), resulting in 4.4 liver transplants per million people (pmp) per year. the number of liver transplantations grows at 6% per year in the region, particularly in Brazil. the top liver transplant rates were found in Argentina (10.4 pmp), Brazil (8.4 pmp), and Uruguay (5.5 pmp). the state of liver transplantation in some countries rivals those in developed countries. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-based allocation, split, domino, and living-donor adult and pediatric transplantations are now routinely performed with outcomes comparable to those in advanced economies. in contrast, liver transplantation is not performed in 35% of Latin American countries and lags adequate resources in many others. the lack of adequate financial coverage, education, and organization is still the main limiting factor in the development of liver transplantation in Latin America. the liver transplant community in the region should push health care leaders and authorities to comply with the Madrid and Istambul resolutions on organ donation and transplantation. It must pursue fiercely the development of registries to advance the science and quality control of liver transplant activities in Latin America.Hosp Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, BrazilNorthwestern Univ, Chicago, IL 60611 USAUniv São Paulo, São Paulo, BrazilInst Nacl Ciencias Med & Nutr Salvador Zubiran, Mexico City, DF, MexicoIrmandade Santa Casa Misericordia Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, BrazilHosp Britan, Buenos Aires, DF, ArgentinaUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, São Paulo, BrazilColombiana Transplantes, Bogota, ColombiaCtr Estadual Transplante, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilMt Sinal Recanatti Miller Transplant Inst, New York, NY USAYale Univ, Sch Med, New Haven, CT USAFdn Vale Lilli, Cali, ColombiaUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, São Paulo, BrazilWeb of Scienc

Impact of Brazilian expanded criteria for liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter study

Introduction and objectives: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the main indications for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). In Brazil, selection criteria for HCC is an expanded version of the Milan Criteria (MC), the so-called ''Brazilian Milan Criteria'' (BMC). Our aims were to evaluate post-OLT outcomes in patients with HCC and analyze the BMC performance. Materials and Methods: We conducted a multicenter, retrospective cohort study, analyzing medical records of 1,059 liver transplant recipients with HCC. Tumor was staged according to MC and BMC and correlated with overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). We compared the ability of MC and BMC to predict OS and DFS using Delta C-statistic. Results: Post-OLT OS were 63% in five years and HCC recurrence was observed in 8% of patients. At diagnosis, 85% of patients were within MC. Patients within MC at diagnosis and in the explant showed a higher OS and DFS than patients outside MC and within BMC and patients outside both criteria (p < 0.001). Patients outside MC in the explant had an increased risk of tumor recurrence (HR: 3.78; p < 0.001) and poor survival (HR:1.77; p = 0.003). The BMC presented a lower performance than MC in properly classifying patients regarding recurrence risk. Conclusions: In a large Brazilian cohort of HCC patients submitted to liver transplantation, we observed satisfactory overall survival and recurrence rates. However, patients transplanted within the Brazilian expanded criteria had lower OS and DFS when compared to patients within MC, which may generate future discussions regarding the criteria currently used

A Prospective Study of Conventional and Expanded Coagulation Indices in Predicting Ulcer Bleeding After Variceal Band Ligation

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is controversy over whether coagulation status predicts bleeding caused by ulceration after esophageal varices band ligation (EVL). METHODS: EVL was performed for primary (n = 45) or secondary (n = 105) prophylaxis in 150 patients with cirrhosis (Child A, n = 74, 49%; Child B, n = 42, 28%; Child C, n = 34, 23%). International normalized ratio (INR) and platelet counts were assessed in all. In 92 patients, levels of factor V, fibrinogen, D-dimer, protein C and protein S, von Willebrand factor, and thromboelastography (TEG) were assessed. Platelet count < 50 x 10(3)/mm(3) and INR > 1.5 were considered high-risk cutoff for bleeding. Conversely, platelet count >= 50 x 10(3)/mm(3) with INR <= 1.5 were safe cutoffs. RESULTS: Overall, 11 patients (7.3%) had post-EVL ulcer bleeding. Bleeding occurred in S patients with Child A/B (4.3%) and 6 patients with Child C (17%) (P = .0174 for Child A/B versus Child C). Eight patients with bleeding were among the 110 below the cutoff for INR and platelet count, whereas only 3 of the patients with bleeding were among the 40 patients with purported high-risk values (P = 1.0). Among the 92 patients with expanded coagulation tests, bleeding occurred in S. There was no difference in any of the coagulation parameters, including overall TEG patterns, between patients who did and did nor bleed. CONCLUSIONS: Post-EVL ulcer bleeding was associated with Child C status but not with conventional or expanded coagulation indices in cirrhotic patients without renal failure or infection undergoing elective EVL. These results call into question the common use of prophylactic procoagulants in the elective setting