Assessing the potential for Bluetongue virus 8 to spread and vaccination strategies in Scotland

Europe has seen frequent outbreaks of Bluetongue (BT) disease since 2006, including an outbreak of BT virus serotype 8 in central France during 2015 that has continued to spread in Europe during 2016. Thus, assessing the potential for BTv-8 spread and determining the optimal deployment of vaccination is critical for contingency planning. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of BTv-8 spread in Scotland and explored the sensitivity of transmission to key disease spread parameters for which detailed empirical data is lacking. With parameters at mean values, there is little spread of BTv-8 in Scotland. However, under a “worst case” but still feasible scenario with parameters at the limits of their ranges and temperatures 1 °C warmer than the mean, we find extensive spread with 203,000 sheep infected given virus introduction to the south of Scotland between mid-May and mid-June. Strategically targeted vaccine interventions can greatly reduce BT spread. Specifically, despite BT having most clinical impact in sheep, we show that vaccination can have the greatest impact on reducing BTv infections in sheep when administered to cattle, which has implications for disease control policy

Temperature Dependence of the Extrinsic Incubation Period of Orbiviruses in Culicoides Biting Midges

The rate at which viruses replicate and disseminate in competent arthropod vectors is limited by the temperature of their environment, and this can be an important determinant of geographical and seasonal limits to their transmission by arthropods in temperate regions.Here, we present a novel statistical methodology for estimating the relationship between temperature and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and apply it to both published and novel data on virus replication for three internationally important orbiviruses (African horse sickness virus (AHSV), bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV)) in their Culicoides vectors. Our analyses show that there can be differences in vector competence for different orbiviruses in the same vector species and for the same orbivirus in different vector species. Both the rate of virus replication (approximately 0.017-0.021 per degree-day) and the minimum temperature required for replication (11-13°C), however, were generally consistent for different orbiviruses and across different Culicoides vector species. The estimates obtained in the present study suggest that previous publications have underestimated the replication rate and threshold temperature because the statistical methods they used included an implicit assumption that all negative vectors were infected.Robust estimates of the temperature dependence of arbovirus replication are essential for building accurate models of transmission and for informing policy decisions about seasonal relaxations to movement restrictions. The methodology developed in this study provides the required robustness and is superior to methods used previously. Importantly, the methods are generic and can readily be applied to other arbovirus-vector systems, as long as the assumptions described in the text are valid

Using shared needles for subcutaneous inoculation can transmit bluetongue virus mechanically between ruminant hosts

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an economically important arbovirus of ruminants that is transmitted by Culicoides spp. biting midges. BTV infection of ruminants results in a high viraemia, suggesting that repeated sharing of needles between animals could result in its iatrogenic transmission. Studies defining the risk of iatrogenic transmission of blood-borne pathogens by less invasive routes, such as subcutaneous or intradermal inoculations are rare, even though the sharing of needles is common practice for these inoculation routes in the veterinary sector. Here we demonstrate that BTV can be transmitted by needle sharing during subcutaneous inoculation, despite the absence of visible blood contamination of the needles. The incubation period, measured from sharing of needles, to detection of BTV in the recipient sheep or cattle, was substantially longer than has previously been reported after experimental infection of ruminants by either direct inoculation of virus, or through blood feeding by infected Culicoides. Although such mechanical transmission is most likely rare under field condition, these results are likely to influence future advice given in relation to sharing needles during veterinary vaccination campaigns and will also be of interest for the public health sector considering the risk of pathogen transmission during subcutaneous inoculations with re-used needles

Bluetongue Virus Serotype 1 Outbreak in the Basque Country (Northern Spain) 2007–2008. Data Support a Primary Vector Windborne Transport

BACKGROUND: Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of ruminants that has expanded its traditional global distribution in the last decade. Recently, BTV-1 emerged in Southern Spain and caused several outbreaks in livestock reaching the north of the country. The aim of this paper was to review the emergence of BTV-1 in the Basque Country (Northern Spain) during 2007 and 2008 analyzing the possibility that infected Culicoides were introduced into Basque Country by winds from the infected areas of Southern Spain. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We use a complex HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model to draw wind roses and backward wind trajectories. The analysis of winds showed September 28 to October 2 as the only period for the introduction of infected midges in the Basque Country. These wind trajectories crossed through the areas affected by serotype 1 on those dates in the South of the Iberian Peninsula. Additionally meteorological data, including wind speed and humidity, and altitude along the trajectories showed suitable conditions for Culicoides survival and dispersion. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: An active infection in medium-long distance regions, wind with suitable speed, altitude and trajectory, and appropriate weather can lead to outbreaks of BTV-1 by transport of Culicoides imicola, not only over the sea (as reported previously) but also over the land. This shows that an additional factor has to be taken into account for the control of the disease which is currently essentially based on the assumption that midges will only spread the virus in a series of short hops. Moreover, the epidemiological and serological data cannot rule out the involvement of other Culicoides species in the spread of the infection, especially at a local level

Rabies and canine distemper virus epidemics in the red fox population of Northern Italy (2006–2010)

Since 2006 the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) population in north-eastern Italy has experienced an epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV). Additionally, in 2008, after a thirteen-year absence from Italy, fox rabies was re-introduced in the Udine province at the national border with Slovenia. Disease intervention strategies are being developed and implemented to control rabies in this area and minimise risk to human health. Here we present empirical data and the epidemiological picture relating to these epidemics in the period 2006-2010. Of important significance for epidemiological studies of wild animals, basic mathematical models are developed to exploit information collected from the surveillance program on dead and/or living animals in order to assess the incidence of infection. These models are also used to estimate the rate of transmission of both diseases and the rate of vaccination, while correcting for a bias in early collection of CDV samples. We found that the rate of rabies transmission was roughly twice that of CDV, with an estimated effective contact between infected and susceptible fox leading to a new infection occurring once every 3 days for rabies, and once a week for CDV. We also inferred that during the early stage of the CDV epidemic, a bias in the monitoring protocol resulted in a positive sample being almost 10 times more likely to be collected than a negative sample. We estimated the rate of intake of oral vaccine at 0.006 per day, allowing us to estimate that roughly 68% of the foxes would be immunised. This was confirmed by field observations. Finally we discuss the implications for the eco-epidemiological dynamics of both epidemics in relation to control measures

Global Analysis of Extracytoplasmic Stress Signaling in Escherichia coli

The Bae, Cpx, Psp, Rcs, and σE pathways constitute the Escherichia coli signaling systems that detect and respond to alterations of the bacterial envelope. Contributions of these systems to stress response have previously been examined individually; however, the possible interconnections between these pathways are unknown. Here we investigate the dynamics between the five stress response pathways by determining the specificities of each system with respect to signal-inducing conditions, and monitoring global transcriptional changes in response to transient overexpression of each of the effectors. Our studies show that different extracytoplasmic stress conditions elicit a combined response of these pathways. Involvement of the five pathways in the various tested stress conditions is explained by our unexpected finding that transcriptional responses induced by the individual systems show little overlap. The extracytoplasmic stress signaling pathways in E. coli thus regulate mainly complementary functions whose discrete contributions are integrated to mount the full adaptive response