Common priors under endogenous uncertainty

For a fixed game and a type structure that admits a common prior, Action Independence states that the conditional beliefs induced by the common prior do not depend on the players' own strategies. It has been conjectured that Action Independence can be behaviorally characterized by means of a suitable no-betting condition (Dekel and Siniscalchi, 2015), but whether this is indeed the case remains an open problem. In this paper, we prove this conjecture true by focusing on strategy-invariant bets, which are bets that cannot be manipulated by the players. In particular, first, we show that at least one of the common priors satisfies Action Independence if and only if there exists no mutually acceptable strategy-invariant bet among the players. Second, we show that, all common priors satisfy Action Independence if and only if there exists no mutually acceptable strategy-invariant bet among the players and an outside observer. These results give us a deeper understanding of existing foundations of solution concepts using only epistemic conditions that are expressed in terms of type structures and are therefore elicitable

Symbolic computation of moments of sampling distributions

By means of the notion of umbrae indexed by multisets, a general method to express estimators and their products in terms of power sums is derived. A connection between the notion of multiset and integer partition leads immediately to a way to speed up the procedures. Comparisons of computational times with known procedures show how this approach turns out to be more efficient in eliminating much unnecessary computation.Comment: 21 pages, 7 table

Tree seedling survival and growth in logged and undisturbed seasonal deciduous forest fragments in central Brazil.

We evaluated the survival and growth of Amburana cearensis, Cedrela fissilis, and Sterculia striata seedlings in three seasonally tropical dry forest fragments that were subjected to different logging levels (intact, intermediately and heavily logged). In each fragment, we planted 40 seedlings of each species and monitored these over a period of 1 year. The highest seedling survival rate (64%) occurred in the heavily logged fragment, which, however, also had the highest mortality risk for all species during the dry season. Only S. striata seedlings had different survival rates among the fragments. Height and diameter growth were higher at sites with higher canopy openness in the wet season. The survival and growth rates of seedlings planted in logged fragments indicate that this technique can be applied to restore and enrich logged forests of the Paranã River Basin

Population Genetic Structure and Species Delimitation of a Widespread, Neotropical Dwarf Gecko

Amazonia harbors the greatest biological diversity on Earth. One trend that spans Amazonian taxa is that most taxonomic groups either exhibit broad geographic ranges or small restricted ranges. This is likely because many traits that determine a species range size, such as dispersal ability or body size, are autocorrelated. As such, it is rare to find groups that exhibit both large and small ranges. Once identified, however, these groups provide a powerful system for isolating specific traits that influence species distributions. One group of terrestrial vertebrates, gecko lizards, tends to exhibit small geographic ranges. Despite one exception, this applies to the Neotropical dwarf geckos of the genus Gonatodes. This exception, Gonatodes humeralis, has a geographic distribution almost 1,000,000 km2 larger than the combined ranges of its 30 congeners. As the smallest member of its genus and a gecko lizard more generally, G. humeralis is an unlikely candidate to be a wide-ranged Amazonian taxon. To test whether or not G. humeralis is one or more species, we generated molecular genetic data using restriction-site associated sequencing (RADseq) and traditional Sanger methods for samples from across its range and conducted a phylogeographic study. We conclude that G. humeralis is, in fact, a single species across its contiguous range in South America. Thus, Gonatodes is a unique clade among Neotropical taxa, containing both wide-ranged and range-restricted taxa, which provides empiricists with a powerful model system to correlate complex species traits and distributions. Additionally, we provide evidence to support species-level divergence of the allopatric population from Trinidad and we resurrect the name Gonatodes ferrugineus from synonymy for this population

Direct seeding of dry forest tree species in abandoned pastures: effects of grass canopy and seed burial on germination.

Natural tree regeneration in abandoned pastures can be hampered by various biotic and abiotic filters, including seed removal and predation. We tested the effects of maintenance and removal of grass and seed deposition (buried and unburied) on seed germination of 12 tree species in dry forest pastures. We obtained evidence supporting the hypothesis that seeds attain higher germination under a grass canopy than on bare ground. For most species, grass cover provides safety from seed predators and facilitates germination by providing a suitable microclimate with soil humidity similar to the forest. The hypothesis that buried seeds attain higher germination was not supported by our data. Predation and removal of unburied seeds ranged from 0 to 77 % and, alone or together, were the major causes of nongermination. Direct seeding is a promising technique for revegetation of recently abandoned pastures in areas originally covered by tropical dry forests. The high germination rate of seeds deposited on the ground and under grass reduces costs during initial restoration stages, potentially facilitating the spread and use of this technique