Complex method of petroleum products demand forecasting considering economic, demographic and technological factors

The article describes study results on the development of methods for forecasting the demand for petroleum products, some petroleum product groups in the world and in some countries node(nodes). The developed method is based on the combination of different forecasting approaches: correlation, factor, technical, economic and econometric analysis with mathematic economic model elements.  The method may be used in the performance of a wide range of tasks: from specific petroleum product market forecasting, such as aviation kerosene or motor gasoline, to system study of the world petroleum market development prospects and the future petroleum role in the energy balance of individual countries and regions.

Fossil fuels markets in the “energy transition” era

The global energy sector is undergoing a global transformation under the influence of technological breakthroughs in several sectors of production and consumption, as well as profound socioeconomic changes in approaches to energy use. This process became known as “energy transition.” In this paper, the authors investigate the long-term impact of the energy transition and related processes on the markets of key fossil fuels: oil, natural gas, and coal. Research shows that all fossil fuel sectors will face a significant increase in competition, both within traditional markets and from other energy sources, due to the development of inter-fuel competition. At the same time, energy policies and efforts to combat greenhouse gas emissions will mostly determine the energy balances of the largest countries, and will have an even greater impact on the market. Natural gas, as the most environmentally friendly of fossil fuels, with a large potential to supplement the generation of new renewable energy sources (NRES), will be the least impaired by the energy transition. In the next 20 years, its consumption and production are expected to grow significantly. Oil is under serious pressure from environmental legislation and growing inter-fuel competition in the transport sector. It is highly likely that consumption will peak before 2040, yet the depletion of traditional resources is supporting prices. The coal market is set for an almost inevitable reduction in consumption. New technologies for capturing emissions can only partially mitigate the rate of coal use decline

Fossil fuels markets in the “energy transition” era

The global energy sector is undergoing a global transformation under the influence of technological breakthroughs in several sectors of production and consumption, as well as profound socioeconomic changes in approaches to energy use. This process became known as “energy transition.” In this paper, the authors investigate the long-term impact of the energy transition and related processes on the markets of key fossil fuels: oil, natural gas, and coal. Research shows that all fossil fuel sectors will face a significant increase in competition, both within traditional markets and from other energy sources, due to the development of inter-fuel competition. At the same time, energy policies and efforts to combat greenhouse gas emissions will mostly determine the energy balances of the largest countries, and will have an even greater impact on the market. Natural gas, as the most environmentally friendly of fossil fuels, with a large potential to supplement the generation of new renewable energy sources (NRES), will be the least impaired by the energy transition. In the next 20 years, its consumption and production are expected to grow significantly. Oil is under serious pressure from environmental legislation and growing inter-fuel competition in the transport sector. It is highly likely that consumption will peak before 2040, yet the depletion of traditional resources is supporting prices. The coal market is set for an almost inevitable reduction in consumption. New technologies for capturing emissions can only partially mitigate the rate of coal use decline