Inter-observer agreement for clinical examinations of foot lesions of sheep

In sheep, the diagnosis of foot lesions is routinely based on physical examination of the hoof. Correct diagnosis is important for the effective treatment, prevention and control of both infectious and non-infectious causes of lameness. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the level of inter-observer agreement for clinical examination of ovine foot lesions. Eight observers of varying experience, training and occupation performed foot examinations on a total of 1158 sheep from 38 farms across North England and Wales. On each farm, a group of two to four observers independently examined a sample of 24 to 30 sheep to diagnose the presence or absence of specific foot lesions including white line lesions (WL), contagious ovine digital dermatitis (CODD), footrot (FR), inter-digital dermatitis (ID) and toe granuloma (TG). The inter-observer agreement of foot lesion assessments was examined using Fleiss kappa (κ), and Cohen's κ examined the paired agreement between the test standard observer (TSO) and each observer. Scoring differences with the TSO were examined as the percentage of scoring errors and assessed for evidence of systematic scoring bias. With the exception of WL (maximum error rate 33.3%), few scoring differences with the TSO occurred (maximum error rate 3.3%). This suggests that observers can achieve good levels of reliability when diagnosing most of the commonly observed foot conditions associated with lameness in sheep

Propylene glycol inactivates respiratory viruses and prevents airborne transmission

Viruses are vulnerable as they transmit between hosts, and we aimed to exploit this critical window. We found that the ubiquitous, safe, inexpensive and biodegradable small molecule propylene glycol (PG) has robust virucidal activity. Propylene glycol rapidly inactivates a broad range of viruses including influenza A, SARS-CoV-2 and rotavirus and reduces disease burden in mice when administered intranasally at concentrations commonly found in nasal sprays. Most critically, vaporised PG efficiently abolishes influenza A virus and SARS-CoV-2 infectivity within airborne droplets, potently preventing infection at levels well below those tolerated by mammals. We present PG vapour as a first-in-class non-toxic airborne virucide that can prevent transmission of existing and emergent viral pathogens, with clear and immediate implications for public health

Selecting Forecasting Methods

I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy,” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do,” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods. Structured judgment, “what experts advise,” which is to rate methods against prespecified criteria, is promising. Statistical criteria, “what should work,” are widely used and valuable, but risky if applied narrowly. Relative track records, “what has worked in this situation,” are expensive because they depend on conducting evaluation studies. Guidelines from prior research, “what works in this type of situation,” relies on published research and offers a low-cost, effective approach to selection. Using a systematic review of prior research, I developed a flow chart to guide forecasters in selecting among ten forecasting methods. Some key findings: Given enough data, quantitative methods are more accurate than judgmental methods. When large changes are expected, causal methods are more accurate than naive methods. Simple methods are preferable to complex methods; they are easier to understand, less expensive, and seldom less accurate. To select a judgmental method, determine whether there are large changes, frequent forecasts, conflicts among decision makers, and policy considerations. To select a quantitative method, consider the level of knowledge about relationships, the amount of change involved, the type of data, the need for policy analysis, and the extent of domain knowledge. When selection is difficult, combine forecasts from different methods

Blood pressure variability and cardiovascular risk in the PROspective study of pravastatin in the elderly at risk (PROSPER)

Variability in blood pressure predicts cardiovascular disease in young- and middle-aged subjects, but relevant data for older individuals are sparse. We analysed data from the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) study of 5804 participants aged 70–82 years with a history of, or risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Visit-to-visit variability in blood pressure (standard deviation) was determined using a minimum of five measurements over 1 year; an inception cohort of 4819 subjects had subsequent in-trial 3 years follow-up; longer-term follow-up (mean 7.1 years) was available for 1808 subjects. Higher systolic blood pressure variability independently predicted long-term follow-up vascular and total mortality (hazard ratio per 5 mmHg increase in standard deviation of systolic blood pressure = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.4; hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.2, respectively). Variability in diastolic blood pressure associated with increased risk for coronary events (hazard ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2–1.8 for each 5 mmHg increase), heart failure hospitalisation (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.8) and vascular (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.7) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.5), all in long-term follow-up. Pulse pressure variability was associated with increased stroke risk (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.4 for each 5 mmHg increase), vascular mortality (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.3) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.2), all in long-term follow-up. All associations were independent of respective mean blood pressure levels, age, gender, in-trial treatment group (pravastatin or placebo) and prior vascular disease and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Our observations suggest variability in diastolic blood pressure is more strongly associated with vascular or total mortality than is systolic pressure variability in older high-risk subjects

Magnetic record associated with tree ring density: Possible climate proxy

A magnetic signature of tree rings was tested as a potential paleo-climatic indicator. We examined wood from sequoia tree, located in Mountain Home State Forest, California, whose tree ring record spans over the period 600 – 1700 A.D. We measured low and high-field magnetic susceptibility, the natural remanent magnetization (NRM), saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (SIRM), and stability against thermal and alternating field (AF) demagnetization. Magnetic investigation of the 200 mm long sequoia material suggests that magnetic efficiency of natural remanence may be a sensitive paleoclimate indicator because it is substantially higher (in average >1%) during the Medieval Warm Epoch (700–1300 A.D.) than during the Little Ice Age (1300–1850 A.D.) where it is <1%. Diamagnetic behavior has been noted to be prevalent in regions with higher tree ring density. The mineralogical nature of the remanence carrier was not directly detected but maghemite is suggested due to low coercivity and absence of Verwey transition. Tree ring density, along with the wood's magnetic remanence efficiency, records the Little Ice Age (LIA) well documented in Europe. Such a record suggests that the European LIA was a global phenomenon. Magnetic analysis of the thermal stability reveals the blocking temperatures near 200 degree C. This phenomenon suggests that the remanent component in this tree may be thermal in origin and was controlled by local thermal condition

Biodiversity Loss and the Taxonomic Bottleneck: Emerging Biodiversity Science

Human domination of the Earth has resulted in dramatic changes to global and local patterns of biodiversity. Biodiversity is critical to human sustainability because it drives the ecosystem services that provide the core of our life-support system. As we, the human species, are the primary factor leading to the decline in biodiversity, we need detailed information about the biodiversity and species composition of specific locations in order to understand how different species contribute to ecosystem services and how humans can sustainably conserve and manage biodiversity. Taxonomy and ecology, two fundamental sciences that generate the knowledge about biodiversity, are associated with a number of limitations that prevent them from providing the information needed to fully understand the relevance of biodiversity in its entirety for human sustainability: (1) biodiversity conservation strategies that tend to be overly focused on research and policy on a global scale with little impact on local biodiversity; (2) the small knowledge base of extant global biodiversity; (3) a lack of much-needed site-specific data on the species composition of communities in human-dominated landscapes, which hinders ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation; (4) biodiversity studies with a lack of taxonomic precision; (5) a lack of taxonomic expertise and trained taxonomists; (6) a taxonomic bottleneck in biodiversity inventory and assessment; and (7) neglect of taxonomic resources and a lack of taxonomic service infrastructure for biodiversity science. These limitations are directly related to contemporary trends in research, conservation strategies, environmental stewardship, environmental education, sustainable development, and local site-specific conservation. Today’s biological knowledge is built on the known global biodiversity, which represents barely 20% of what is currently extant (commonly accepted estimate of 10 million species) on planet Earth. Much remains unexplored and unknown, particularly in hotspots regions of Africa, South Eastern Asia, and South and Central America, including many developing or underdeveloped countries, where localized biodiversity is scarcely studied or described. ‘‘Backyard biodiversity’’, defined as local biodiversity near human habitation, refers to the natural resources and capital for ecosystem services at the grassroots level, which urgently needs to be explored, documented, and conserved as it is the backbone of sustainable economic development in these countries. Beginning with early identification and documentation of local flora and fauna, taxonomy has documented global biodiversity and natural history based on the collection of ‘‘backyard biodiversity’’ specimens worldwide. However, this branch of science suffered a continuous decline in the latter half of the twentieth century, and has now reached a point of potential demise. At present there are very few professional taxonomists and trained local parataxonomists worldwide, while the need for, and demands on, taxonomic services by conservation and resource management communities are rapidly increasing. Systematic collections, the material basis of biodiversity information, have been neglected and abandoned, particularly at institutions of higher learning. Considering the rapid increase in the human population and urbanization, human sustainability requires new conceptual and practical approaches to refocusing and energizing the study of the biodiversity that is the core of natural resources for sustainable development and biotic capital for sustaining our life-support system. In this paper we aim to document and extrapolate the essence of biodiversity, discuss the state and nature of taxonomic demise, the trends of recent biodiversity studies, and suggest reasonable approaches to a biodiversity science to facilitate the expansion of global biodiversity knowledge and to create useful data on backyard biodiversity worldwide towards human sustainability

Blood pressure and renal cancer risk: the HUNT Study in Norway

In a prospective study of 36 728 women and 35 688 men during 18 years of follow-up, compared to systolic pressure <130 mm Hg, levels of 130–149, 150–169 and ⩾170 mm Hg in women were associated with relative risks of renal cell cancer of 1.7, 2.0 and 2.0, respectively (P for linear trend, 0.11). In men, there was no association with blood pressure

Low correlation between visit-to-visit variability and 24-h variability of blood pressure

Visit-to-visit variability (VVV) of clinic systolic blood pressure (SBP) has been associated with cardiovascular disease risk. Given the need for obtaining blood pressure (BP) at multiple visits to calculate VVV, substituting BP variability from ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) may be a practical alternative. We assessed the correlation between VVV of BP and BP variability from ABPM using data from 146 untreated, mostly normotensive participants (mean age 47.9 years) in a substudy of the ongoing Masked Hypertension Study. VVV of SBP and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) was estimated by the standard deviation (SDvvv) and average real variability (ARVvvv) from 6 study visits over a median of 216 days. ABPM data were used to calculate the day-night SD (SDdn) and the ARV of SBP and DBP over 24 hours (ARV24). For SBP, the mean SDvvv and SDdn were 6.3 (SD=2.5) and 8.8 (SD=1.8) mmHg, respectively, and mean ARVvvv and ARV24 were 7.2 (SD=3.2) and 8.4 (SD=2.1) mmHg, respectively. The Spearman correlation coefficient between SDvvv and SDdn of SBP was rs=0.25 and between ARVvvv and ARV24 was rs=0.17. Participants in the highest quartile of SDdn of SBP were 1.66 (95% CI: 0.93 – 2.75) times more likely to be in the highest quartile of SDvvv of SBP. The observed-to-expected ratio between the highest quartiles of ARVvvv and ARV24 of SBP was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.41 – 1.69). The correlations for SDvvv and SDdn and ARVvvv and ARV24 of DBP were minimal. These data suggest VVV and 24-hour variability are weakly correlated and not interchangeable